January 2024

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So, I’m not sure if that screen shot from Travis Herzog is the same conversation y’all are referring to, but I don’t think he was “openly mocking” people who were saying it was going to get cold. He even said himself it’s going to get cold. He did say be careful not to take one model run being posted on social media as gospel, and I think the example he used was a run from 12/27 for 1/24, almost a full month away. Sounds like pragmatic, sound advice to me.

Agree with that.

[Stratton20]

CMC 00z still has light freezing rain fwiw

[biggerbyte]

Any and all Mets can get it wrong sometimes. The late and great Harold Taft once said that snow was not coming to DFW, but rather stay north of the area. I lived in Dallas for ten years and never saw him miss it. We woke up the next morning to a winter wonderland. Things can change on a dime. I've always said to never be absolute with a weather forecast, especially during winter months.

[TexasBreeze]

CMC 00z still has light freezing rain fwiw

Also brings in single digit temps for what it is worth and lots of cold daytime highs like the icon!

[sambucol]

CMC 00z still has light freezing rain fwiw

Also brings in single digit temps for what it is worth and lots of cold daytime highs like the icon!

Single digits in SETX?

[TexasBreeze]

Yes Tuesday morning, but without any frozen ground cover, I wouldn't think that would verify, but that is just my guess!

[sambucol]

Yes Tuesday morning, but without any frozen ground cover, I wouldn't think that would verify, but that is just my guess!

Wow. I can’t even imagine temps that low if that were to verify.

[sambucol]

I have a feeling this is going to be colder than predicted and with ice.

[DoctorMu]

The 18z GFS has a 1065MB high in NW Canada in 10 days lol that’s bananas. The pattern is attempting to reload.

If that happened, that would be on par with January 1962, December 1983, or December 1989 in terms of pressure.

World Air Pressure Extremes
https://www.glenallenweather.com/histor ... essure.pdf

World and U.S. Anti-cyclonic (High Barometric) Pressure Records
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weath ... cords.html

1983 and 1989 really stick in my mind. Huge cold snaps that hit Texas, Florida, North Carolina. 1989 may have been the most snow and ice in Gainesville, FL since 1898.

1983 was damn cold. The highs were about 5-10°F in NC and lows below 0°F. Asheville set its all time December low of -8°F.

[DoctorMu]

Speaking of which, we're down to 31.1°F. Another freeze. I'm loving this winter.

[Cromagnum]

More near-term, how's the storm situation shaping up for early hours of Friday morning?

[Thundersleet]

Is this Arctic Outbreak not in connection with last Summer’s Heat Waves which started in July and lasted until early September? Is there any correlation to or between the two weather phenomenons?

[Stratton20]

Euro has a ice/ sleet storm setup over se texas

[sambucol]

Euro has a ice/ sleet storm setup over se texas

What is the timeframe?

[Stratton20]

Sambucol on the euro its monday night- tuesday morning

[sambucol]

Thank you, Strat.

[brazoriatx]

Seems like whatever precip there is it's trending more towards central and SE texas

[Cpv17]

Seems like whatever precip there is it's trending more towards central and SE texas

I’m thinking late next week might need to be watched as well.

And it usually does trend towards us cuz it’s suppressed.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
533 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 445 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

Onshore flow should strengthen throughout the day today as the
pressure gradient tightens from a deepening trough over the Plains
and surface cyclone near Saskatchewan/North Dakota. This should lead
to breezy conditions developing throughout the afternoon with higher
gusts mixing down to the surface. Subsequently, this will increase
WAA & moisture advection, ushering in warmer conditions today with
highs in the 60s. PWs remain too dry for any kind of rainfall during
this period, but rising surface moisture should lead to areas of fog
developing across SE Texas during the early morning hours of
Thursday. Forecast soundings show a very robust nocturnal inversion
during this early morning period with light winds at the surface.
Recent rainfall and cooler ground temperatures only adds further
confidence to fog development. Those commuting to work Thursday
morning should be wary of dense fog, especially in areas south of
the I-10 corridor. Lows during this early morning period will be in
the mid 40s/upper 50s.

Warming trend continues throughout the day on Thursday with highs
progged to reach the 70s. Another mid/upper level trough should
sweep across the Central/Southern Plains Thursday Night/Friday
morning. The associated surface low deepens over the TX/OK Panhandle
early in the evening, then tracks NE overnight, draping another
strong cold front across SE Texas during the early morning hours of
Friday. Dynamics with this FROPA look pretty substantial, with a 50-
60 knot LLJ progged to slide in overhead ahead of the FROPA. 6KM
Bulk Shear looks to be in excess of 65 knots region-wide, upwards of
90 knots further N/NW as the front pushes through. However,
instability looks rather low, with MU CAPE ranging from 200-800
J/KG, the highest of which located closer to the coastline and away
from the peak shear with this system. Additional, forecast soundings
are capped during the period, only eroding during the early morning
hours of Friday (either just before or with the FROPA itself).
The front will already be moving through SE Texas by this point,
and looks to be off the coast before sunrise. SPC currently has
portions of the Piney Woods/Lake Livingston area under a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather during this period, with the
rest of SE Texas under a marginal (level 1/5) Risk. The primary
threats from these storms look to be damaging winds and hail, due
to the elevated nature of these storms.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

Thursday night`s storm system should be pushing out of the area
with clearing skies, 20-35mph nw winds and cooler conditions in
the wake of the front. Winds should diminish after sunset and a
light freeze is expected across a good part of the region Friday
night, perhaps down to around the US59/I69 corridor. High pressure
moves off to the east on Saturday allow for onshore winds to
resume and slightly warmer conditions into midday Sunday.

Global guidance is currently in fairly great agreement bringing
an Arctic cold front into the area on Sunday (unsurprisingly, most
are a bit faster than previous runs). Most models bring the
leading edge into the northern 1/3 of the CWA in the late
afternoon hours then a good ways off the coast by midnight. As
such, we`ve taken temps down another notch Sunday night across the
region and brings the threat of hard freezes down to about Conroe
overnight. There will probably be enough convergence along the
leading wind shift to squeeze out an iso-sct band of showers along
the wind shift. I will end the mention of precip before freezing
temps arrive. Not that there isn`t a zero chance otherwise - I
just don`t have enough convincing evidence at this junction to go
down that road yet.

Temperature-wise, hard freezes are anticipated across portions of
the area into midweek. Some could very well see extended periods
of subfreezing temperatures. For example, current forecast
reflects that areas northwest of a very rough line from Columbus-
Livingston will struggle to get much above 32F late Sunday night
until Tue afternoon. Further south, there may be some limited
heating during the afternoons, but still struggle to get out of
the 30s.

Key messages & talking points:
- Arctic front is expected Sunday.
- Hard freezes will be a threat for Southeast Texas through
Tuesday night.
- Expect some long durations of subfreezing temperatures.
- Low wind chills are expected.
- There currently is not a strong signal in the models for frozen
precipitation, though we will continue to monitor the situation
and future data.
- Residents should begin cold weather preparations before the
front arrives...ideally by Saturday. Outdoor pipes wrapped,
sprinkler systems protected, have a plan for pets, etc.
- Models will do some flip-flopping (maybe even lose the
significant cold for a time or show armageddon). We`ll be
focusing on the trends...not a single model or model run. The
historically better models that capture the shallow/cold
airmasses will start becoming available in the next couple days.

47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 519 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

VFR conditions should prevail throughout the day. Southerly winds
of 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots can be expected this
afternoon, diminishing this evening as winds decouple. Areas of
fog are expected to develop overnight tonight, bringing
widespread LIFR visibility. VLIFR VIS/VV will be possible during
the early morning hours of Thursday. Fog should slowly lift/burn
off after sunrise with VFR conditions prevailing during the day
on Thursday.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

Low water conditions are expected around the next low tide cycle
this morning and early afternoon. PETSS guidance suggests values between
-1.0 and -1.5 MLLW. Otherwise, onshore winds will resume today then
increase on Thursday ahead of the next weather system and front
that will move through the area. Look for the front, and
associated thin band of showers to push off the coast between 3am
and 6am Friday. Strong northwest winds, gusting to or above gale
force, and building seas are anticipated in its wake Friday.
Gale Watches/Warnings will likely be required. This will also
bring more significant low water conditions than we`ve already
seen the past days, perhaps between -2.5 and -3.5 MLLW. Onshore
winds resume Saturday followed by the passage of a strong Arctic
cold front Sunday evening. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 47 73 42 / 0 0 10 50
Houston (IAH) 68 53 74 49 / 0 0 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 64 59 68 51 / 0 0 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Adams

[tireman4]

Eric Berger from Space Center Weather...

Good morning. As you have probably heard by now, Houston faces the prospect of a hard freeze next week as an Arctic front move through much of the continental United States. This will be serious cold for the Houston region, and will warrant some preparation. However, this is unlikely to be a disaster on the level of the February 2021 event that sapped the power grid and caused widespread pipe failures. It should be more akin to the February 2022 freeze, which the power grid (and most residences) tolerated much better.

Current forecast for low temperatures on Tuesday morning. This is far from locked in.
In terms of air temperatures, we are going to see some seriously cold (for Houston) weather next Monday night and Tuesday night. While there is still considerable uncertainty in how far the mercury will drop, lows are likely to drop into the upper teens to mid-20s for much of the Houston metro area. Here are some suggestions for preparing for this event:

Plants: Bring potted plants inside your garage or home. Apply a thick layer of mulch around ground-based plants, and water them. Cover sensitive plants with a sheet.

Pipes: Cover or insulate exposed pipes, including those under raised homes. Turn off and drain water sprinkling systems. Indoors, open sink cabinets to expose pipes to inner warmth.

Pets: Bring pets indoors and ensure adequate warmth for livestock.

People: Check on your family and neighbors to ensure their homes are winterized, or see if they need a warm place to stay.

Wednesday
Winds have already shifted to come from the south this morning, so after a chilly start in the upper 30s we are going to see highs push into the mid- to upper-60s beneath sunny skies. Winds will at times turn a bit gusty. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid-50s. The combination of light winds, warm air, and cool ground will lead to the likely development of fog tonight.

Thursday
That fog will be thickest on Thursday morning, and you’ll probably want to leave some extra time for the morning commute or getting to school. It could linger into the mid-morning hours. Skies will then turn partly sunny, with high temperatures likely reaching the mid-70s. A robust cold front will approach and move through the Houston region on Thursday night. This could result in a broken line of showers and thunderstorms, but at this point accumulations look slight. We can’t entirely rule out some damaging winds or hail with the front, but overall severe storm chances seem fairly low.