January 2024

[DoctorMu]

My dew point is already down to 26. Once the winds die down, the temp is gonna drop like a rock.

Same here.

[Pas_Bon]

Ch 13 says arctic outbreak then has highs in the 40s. LMAO

Well, Ch 13 lost a dose of credibility with me when Travis Herzog openly mocked those (less than a week ago) adhering to the forecast models showing the very cold outbreak we are about to experience.

[Cpv17]

Ch 13 says arctic outbreak then has highs in the 40s. LMAO

Well, Ch 13 lost a dose of credibility with me when Travis Herzog openly mocked those (less than a week ago) adhering to the forecast models showing the very cold outbreak we are about to experience.

Wish I would’ve seen this.

[biggerbyte]

Yes, but remember no one was saying anything about it. Even the NWS waited a few days. Weather is forever evolving, and we've seen forecasts bust even in as little as 24 hours. We are not there yet. I've seen a lot in my tenor with weather forums and long range forecasts. I don't trust any of it. Two days out, min.

[DoctorMu]

Our local KBTX at least has the ballz to prog highs in the 30s MLK Day and next Tuesday. 8 out of 10 days including tonight IMFY will have freezes. At least 3 nights will experience hard freezes (<25°F), including the teens. We won't see 50°F for 6-7 days at least, beginning on Sunday.

KBTX is progging a 30% chance of wintry mix on MLK Day. We'll see.

CoCo should see something similar - maybe a couple of degrees colder at night there. My weather station has been congruent with Easterwood on the highs, but 2-4°F colder at night. My lows are similar to Anderson, which is a few miles east of us. We're on the very eastern edge of town away from the TAMU UHI. We can hear the nearby cows lowing at night when there's little wind.

We've (for)seen this stepwise cooldown for weeks in the models. My confidence is moderately high for arctic cold weather. Just hopeful about the wintry precip. It takes quite a bit of luck in SETX. Having said that, the probabilities for wintry stuff are higher than 15-20 years ago.

[Pas_Bon]

Ch 13 says arctic outbreak then has highs in the 40s. LMAO

Well, Ch 13 lost a dose of credibility with me when Travis Herzog openly mocked those (less than a week ago) adhering to the forecast models showing the very cold outbreak we are about to experience.

Wish I would’ve seen this.

Say no more…..

[walsean1]

Here is Larry Cosgrove post on Facebook from Today.

https://clearskyweather.com/2024/01/09/ ... otherlode/

[DoctorMu]

Here is Larry Cosgrove post on Facebook from Today.

https://clearskyweather.com/2024/01/09/ ... otherlode/

That is the sound of Cosgrove caving to the inevitable.

C'mon, snowpack!!

[DoctorMu]

NOAA readjusted our high on MLK Day down to 34°F. They are resisting precip. for now.

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS has a 1065MB high in NW Canada in 10 days lol that’s bananas. The pattern is attempting to reload.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep, I think this could be honestly one of the longest stretches of consistently cold weather we have had in some time, reload pattern could last until the end of the month, maybe beyond, warmest i see ( not counting this brutal arctic blast) is low 40’s for highs, blocking stays in place for quite a while

[walsean1]

This is the updated CPC 6-10 day Temperature outlook.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... mp.new.gif

[DoctorMu]

This is the updated CPC 6-10 day Temperature outlook.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... mp.new.gif

hmmmmm...8-14 day outlook has above average prob. precip chance with lower storm dips as the jet stream buckles. Presumably, the cold air remains in place...

[Cpv17]

This is the updated CPC 6-10 day Temperature outlook.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... mp.new.gif

hmmmmm...8-14 day outlook has above average prob. precip chance with lower storm dips as the jet stream buckles. Presumably, the cold air remains in place...

Exactly. Honestly, I feel like people may be focusing on Monday too much as the only chance for wintry precip.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 exactly! Plus once we get into the range of the mesocales, who knows what they will show, sometimes they are better at sniffing out disturbances that the globals may not see or even miss

[Stratton20]

00z ICON coming in colder and has more precipitation to work with fwiw, has some light freezing drizzle and or sleet

[Ptarmigan]

The 18z GFS has a 1065MB high in NW Canada in 10 days lol that’s bananas. The pattern is attempting to reload.

If that happened, that would be on par with January 1962, December 1983, or December 1989 in terms of pressure.

World Air Pressure Extremes
https://www.glenallenweather.com/histor ... essure.pdf

World and U.S. Anti-cyclonic (High Barometric) Pressure Records
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weath ... cords.html

[Cpv17]

00z ICON coming in colder and has more precipitation to work with fwiw, has some light freezing drizzle and or sleet

Sheesh! And it was already ridiculously cold to begin with.

[jasons2k]

So, I’m not sure if that screen shot from Travis Herzog is the same conversation y’all are referring to, but I don’t think he was “openly mocking” people who were saying it was going to get cold. He even said himself it’s going to get cold. He did say be careful not to take one model run being posted on social media as gospel, and I think the example he used was a run from 12/27 for 1/24, almost a full month away. Sounds like pragmatic, sound advice to me.

[Cpv17]

So, I’m not sure if that screen shot from Travis Herzog is the same conversation y’all are referring to, but I don’t think he was “openly mocking” people who were saying it was going to get cold. He even said himself it’s going to get cold. He did say be careful not to take one model run being posted on social media as gospel, and I think the example he used was a run from 12/27 for 1/24, almost a full month away. Sounds like pragmatic, sound advice to me.

I’m fine with Herzog. I think overall he’s a pretty solid met.