January 2024

[dp6]

So, uh, obsessing over cold is fine, but we've got tornadoes possibly coming tomorrow.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So, uh, obsessing over cold is fine, but we've got tornadoes possibly coming tomorrow.

No, that will be east of here

[Stratton20]

CMC 00z puts us in the ice box 🥶🥶

[sambucol]

Cosgrove is a solid met

[don]

So, uh, obsessing over cold is fine, but we've got tornadoes possibly coming tomorrow.

Only expecting streamer showers, and a broken line of storms with the front at the moment. With the parameters in place, I can't rule out overperformance, but it's not likely. Stay weather aware tomorrow just in case though.

[dp6]

So, uh, obsessing over cold is fine, but we've got tornadoes possibly coming tomorrow.

No, that will be east of here

Maybe for you, but the SPC has all of the Houston area, beginning west of Sealy, in the 5% tornado hatch area for tomorrow.

[Stratton20]

The better dynamics for tornado’s will be to the east of houston

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So, uh, obsessing over cold is fine, but we've got tornadoes possibly coming tomorrow.

No, that will be east of here

Maybe for you, but the SPC has all of the Houston area, beginning west of Sealy, in the 5% tornado hatch area for tomorrow.

I’m 35 minutes west of Sealy and in the HGX viewing area. I just don’t think we see much and I’m not talking just about me.

[Cpv17]

So, uh, obsessing over cold is fine, but we've got tornadoes possibly coming tomorrow.

No, that will be east of here

Maybe for you, but the SPC has all of the Houston area, beginning west of Sealy, in the 5% tornado hatch area for tomorrow.

It’ll be a low risk for us. More than likely won’t amount to much.

[Stratton20]

00z Euro has a potent winter storm, and even brings frozen precipe and some snow into the houston area fwiw

[869MB]

One thing that has caught my attention about Monday's potential is that the 06Z HRRR has increased MLCAPE during the late morning hours across SETX as compared to its 00Z Run. It may not make a big difference when all is said and done but it is a short-term trend that needs to be monitored through tomorrow morning.

[snowman65]

Im just not getting the feeling that any of the upcoming patterns through Jan arent going to be anything extreme. Sure, there may be 3-4 days of freezing temps, but it doesnt hang around. By the last week of Jan we'll be back to routine cold for this time of year. Could be wrong but thats just my gut feeling. Definately nothing like Feb 21.

[brazoriatx]

Im just not getting the feeling that any of the upcoming patterns through Jan arent going to be anything extreme. Sure, there may be 3-4 days of freezing temps, but it doesnt hang around. By the last week of Jan we'll be back to routine cold for this time of year. Could be wrong but thats just my gut feeling. Definately nothing like Feb 21.

Forecasting the weather isn't about feelings..things change and will continue to change

[Cpv17]

Looks like the SPC upgraded Houston and points east to an enhanced risk for today.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like the SPC upgraded Houston and points east to an enhanced risk for today.

Saw that. Southern half of Dixie Alley in for a real rough time today.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 080924
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Not much has changed from the previous several forecasts. Upper
trof in the Four Corners region will deepen and trek ese across
the Southern Plains and Texas today and tonight. Developing
surface low pressure over eastern NM and the Texas Panhandle will
track ewd during that same time period. Its associated
dryline/front will surge east southeastward into Southeast Texas
this afternoon and off the coast this evening.

In advance of the front, low level jet will strengthen this
morning...eventually reaching 45-60kt at H85 and holding thru this
much of the afternoon. WAA advection regime will transport Gulf
moisture back into the region. Column profile below about H7 becomes
fairly saturated and anticipate scattered showers to begin
developing across the area as we head into the sunrise and mid
morning hours. Potential for a few embedded tstms emerges as the
morning progresses.

Think precip coverage will remain mostly scattered this morning
followed by a thin band of showers and storms developing along the
front in the afternoon. This band of storms will probably be
somewhere around the Crockett-College Station area 1-2pm, the
US59/I69 corridor 4-6pm, and along/off the coast 6-8pm.

In regards to the severe weather potential: model forecast parameters
are there for some severe cells. High shear, sufficient CAPE,
cooling mid levels, and a somewhat diffluent flow aloft compliments
of 150kt upper jet rounding the base of the trof in sw Tx. That
said, the question remains whether robust forcing can overcome the
expected significant morning cloudiness & showers. Confidence isn`t
overly high one way or the other. Suspect most will mainly see some
some moderate end cells mid-late morning thru early evening that`ll
produce some 35-50mph winds (just from mixing the higher winds aloft
to the surface). However, definitely cannot rule out a handful of
overperformers producing more significant wx. All hazards would be
in play - damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. FF threat
is marginal considering the fairly progressive nature of this system.

Severe wx threat should mostly end with the passage of the front.
Portions of the region should see some scattered precip
redevelopment in the 9pm-3am timeframe behind the boundary. This
would be in association with the approach of the base of the mid
level level trof and jet streak interacting with whatever lingering
moisture remains available. Assuming the forecast dry sub-cloud base
below 7000ft holds, light rain will be the prevailing issue. Maybe a
non-zero threat of perhaps some small hail if dynamics/moisture
availability is more than advertised.

By Tuesday morning clouds will have cleared and expect a sunny,
windy and colder day. Northern 1/2 of the CWA will flirt with a
light freeze Tuesday night.

47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Onshore flow should return on Wednesday, bringing WAA and increasing
moisture across SE Texas during the second half of the work week.
Thursday will see highs reach the 70s, with isentropic lifting and
PWs of 0.75 - 1.0" bringing slight rain chances back into the
forecast during the late afternoon/evening. Otherwise, conditions
through Thursday evening will be mostly benign, serving as another
brief lull between weather systems.

Global models indicate that another upper level trough should sweep
across the Plains on Friday, pushing another strong cold front
through SE Texas. Current guidance suggest that this cold front
should reach the Brazos Valley during the early morning hours of
Friday, later pushing offshore by Friday afternoon with strong winds
developing in it`s wake. The latest model runs feature better
agreement than previous iterations, though some uncertainties
remain, especially pertaining to timing and temperatures. With el
nino conditions ongoing and global models trending towards a quicker
FROPA, I opted to adjust temperatures down Friday night/early
Saturday morning, putting lows near/below freezing across SE Texas.

High uncertainty exists beyond this point in the forecast, though
trends seem to indicate onshore flow returning Saturday, WAA and
building moisture through Sunday, with yet another cold front Sunday
night/Monday morning.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Deteriorating flying conditions are anticipated this morning as
ceilings lower into IFR territory by mid morning in addition to
increasing precipitation chances. Bumpy conditions are also
anticipated with moderate se-s winds at the surface along with an
increasing low level jet in the 45-60kt range. Will maintain already
advertised low level wind shear in the TAFs.

Showers and storms, a few of which possibly strong-severe, should
mainly be scattered in the morning. Heading into the afternoon, look
for a thin line of shra/tstms to emerge along a frontal boundary
moving ese into and across the region (CLL ~19z, IAH ~23z, GLS ~1z).
CeilingS should lift into VFR territory SHORTLY after the wind
shift, though we may see some high based sct shra or iso tsra
develop behind the front 3-9z. Skies will clear with moderate to
strong nw winds by sunrise Tue.

47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Onshore winds around 15 to 25 knots are expected across the bays and
nearshore waters today ahead of a cold front, with winds in the
offshore waters approaching Gale-Force. This strong onshore flow
will bring seas of 8 to 13 ft across the gulf waters, along with a
higher risk of rip current and elevated tides across all Gulf-facing
beaches during this period. Numerous thunderstorms will develop
along and ahead of the cold front today. Some storms may become
strong to severe at times, capable of producing damaging winds and
isolated waterspouts. The cold front should push offshore this
evening, with winds across all waters approaching Gale-Force
overnight. This strong offshore flow will result in low water levels
throughout the bays early Tuesday morning. Winds and seas subside
Tuesday evening, with onshore flow quickly returning by Wednesday
morning. Caution flags may be needed at times during the second half
of the work week as onshore winds return and strengthen ahead of yet
another cold front. This second cold front arrives early on Friday,
with strong offshore winds, potentially nearing Gale-Force,
developing in it`s wake.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 38 52 33 / 80 30 0 0
Houston (IAH) 74 40 53 35 / 80 50 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 45 54 46 / 70 70 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 9 PM CST Tuesday for
GMZ330-335-350-355.

Low Water Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
GMZ330-335.

Gale Warning until 9 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03

[Cromagnum]

Overproducing this morning.

[dp6]

To clarify for tornado risk, the Storm Prediction Center moved half of Houston into the higher 10% East of Here category. 15% for hail and wind, though the higher 30% risk for winds remains to the east, from central Louisiana to western Florida. And the New Orleans/Baton Rouge radar is down until March (KLIX moving and improving from Slidell to Hammond.)

[Cpv17]

Overproducing this morning.

The 2 systems last week overproduced for me. I’m hoping that’s a good sign.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’ve received a half inch this morning