January 2024

[Stratton20]

Man look at that 00z Euro, thats some big cold coming down into the US

[sambucol]

Man look at that 00z Euro, thats some serious cold coming down into the US

What does it look like for us? Temps? Precip?

[Stratton20]

sambucol doesnt go out far enough for precipitation, but its showing some pretty cold air on the move, lets just say, get ready to pull out the big winter jackets soon

[sambucol]

Thanks Strat

[Katdaddy]

A nice 1.59” of rain overnight.

[snowman65]

interesting... this is a snipit of an article released 12 hrs ago:


HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Over the past week, viewers have been coming to the ABC13 Weather Team with questions about a possible arctic blast later this month. Those rumors came from a weather blog in north Texas that posted about the "polar vortex" a few days after Christmas.

At the moment, there is no cold air outbreak in the forecast, even extended. But let's revisit the polar vortex, explain what it is, and the signs we look for as meteorologists that could be clues to its potential arrival here in the United States.

[Cpv17]

Now that’s what I call building a snowpack on the 6z GFS! Wow, that’s a lot of snow over the country in a 2 week span.

[Harp1]

interesting... this is a snipit of an article released 12 hrs ago:


HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Over the past week, viewers have been coming to the ABC13 Weather Team with questions about a possible arctic blast later this month. Those rumors came from a weather blog in north Texas that posted about the "polar vortex" a few days after Christmas.

At the moment, there is no cold air outbreak in the forecast, even extended. But let's revisit the polar vortex, explain what it is, and the signs we look for as meteorologists that could be clues to its potential arrival here in the United States.

Well, this is certainly discouraging. Has it all been an internet rumor?

[Cpv17]

interesting... this is a snipit of an article released 12 hrs ago:


HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Over the past week, viewers have been coming to the ABC13 Weather Team with questions about a possible arctic blast later this month. Those rumors came from a weather blog in north Texas that posted about the "polar vortex" a few days after Christmas.

At the moment, there is no cold air outbreak in the forecast, even extended. But let's revisit the polar vortex, explain what it is, and the signs we look for as meteorologists that could be clues to its potential arrival here in the United States.

Well, this is certainly discouraging. Has it all been an internet rumor?

Definitely not just a rumor. Even an amateur weather guy can see the changes coming. Has a good amount of meat to the bone.

[Harp1]

interesting... this is a snipit of an article released 12 hrs ago:


HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Over the past week, viewers have been coming to the ABC13 Weather Team with questions about a possible arctic blast later this month. Those rumors came from a weather blog in north Texas that posted about the "polar vortex" a few days after Christmas.

At the moment, there is no cold air outbreak in the forecast, even extended. But let's revisit the polar vortex, explain what it is, and the signs we look for as meteorologists that could be clues to its potential arrival here in the United States.

Well, this is certainly discouraging. Has it all been an internet rumor?

Definitely not just a rumor. Even an amateur weather guy can see the changes coming. Has a good amount of meat to the bone.

I thought not. So why is he saying this?

[TexasBreeze]

That long range 600 hrs cfs model pic of temps went viral seen it posted many times.

[sambucol]

interesting... this is a snipit of an article released 12 hrs ago:


HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Over the past week, viewers have been coming to the ABC13 Weather Team with questions about a possible arctic blast later this month. Those rumors came from a weather blog in north Texas that posted about the "polar vortex" a few days after Christmas.

At the moment, there is no cold air outbreak in the forecast, even extended. But let's revisit the polar vortex, explain what it is, and the signs we look for as meteorologists that could be clues to its potential arrival here in the United States.

He did post this on Dec. 29 on Facebook right before he went on vacation. #3 mentions Arctic air:

Before I take off for the rest of the year, I've got a few things to put on your mental radar as we journey through the first two weeks of January:

1. While there's a small chance of showers in the early morning hours of New Year's Day as a cold front rolls in, there's also a chance you could encounter dense fog ahead of the cold front. Remember, firework smoke mixing with fog can lead to near zero visibility, so keep an eye on that forecast.

2. A parade of Pacific storms will start marching through beginning on Tuesday, January 2nd. We'll get a round of rain about every 3 days from these storms into the following week. Early indications are the one next Friday could even be cold enough to put snow down in a large part of Texas. Stay tuned, snow chasers!

3. By the time we get to MLK weekend and the Houston Marathon, there are signs a bigger pattern change may deliver our winter's first first chance of some arctic air and widespread freezing temperatures. More to come on that when I return next week!

Have a safe and happy New Year celebration, and I'll see you on TV again in 2024!

[Cpv17]

That long range 600 hrs cfs model pic of temps went viral seen it posted many times.

Why those maps shouldn’t even be posted or talked about. The CFS is pure garbage as far as I’m concerned.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

interesting... this is a snipit of an article released 12 hrs ago:


HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Over the past week, viewers have been coming to the ABC13 Weather Team with questions about a possible arctic blast later this month. Those rumors came from a weather blog in north Texas that posted about the "polar vortex" a few days after Christmas.

At the moment, there is no cold air outbreak in the forecast, even extended. But let's revisit the polar vortex, explain what it is, and the signs we look for as meteorologists that could be clues to its potential arrival here in the United States.

Well, this is certainly discouraging. Has it all been an internet rumor?

Because we aren’t going to see Arctic air until the 20th-30th timeframe. We will stay a bit below normal until then and occasionally wet.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031122
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
522 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024

I have been responsible for the forecast on this coastal low since
it popped into the very longest part of the long term, and now it
is finally almost out of the picture. Key word: almost. Though
rain is heading out, we are seeing strong, gusty winds coming
around the backside of the low near the coast, close to the low
center. Places as far north as Huntsville have gusted to around 25
mph, with IAH seeing gusts to around 30 mph, and Hobby gusting to
around 35 mph. Closer to the low center, Angleton has gusted to
around 40 mph, and with a fetch off Galveston Bay, Scholes Field
in Galveston has been the big winner, gusting to a peak above 50
mph! Fortunately, it does appear that the most populated portions
of the area, but gusty winds will persist through the night,
before the low pulls far enough away for winds to moderate this
morning.

Rain is coming to an end first, with gusty winds trailing off next
this morning, the airmass on the backside of this marine low is
not going to be enough to scour out deep moisture, and so we can
expect cloud cover to stick with us through the day and even into
tonight for most of the area. As a result, today`s highs will not
be very impressive, only rising into the low to mid 50s. Farther
north, there may be a bit of a struggle to even get above 50
degrees. The flip side to that is that I did nudge low temps
tonight back up given the expected stubbornness of these clouds.
Tonight should still be pretty chilly though, with lows in the 40s
south of I-10, and falling into the 30s northward. If anyone
manages to hit freezing, it will be on our far northern edge, in
small portions of Houston and Trinity counties. This area has the
best chance of seeing the clouds break significantly, and allow
for some more nighttime cooling.

Another thing to watch for tonight will be fog potential. I`m not
anticipating significant fog formation, but today`s offshore winds
don`t look to knock dewpoints down a whole lot, plus we`ve got a
moisture source from the current rainfall. Pair that with a chilly
night, and we could definitely see patches of fog crop up
tonight. Best odds for fog will likely pair with cloud cover and
overnight cooling. Where we can get more breaks in the clouds and
better cooling, fog potential will be better.

Tomorrow looks to see some more sun break through, particularly
for the northeastern half of the area. In the southwestern half,
it will be more of mix of sun and clouds. And while the weather
tomorrow should be fair and a bit warmer, with highs closer to 60
degrees...we`ll also be able to spot things already changing as
our progressive pattern continues. Tomorrow afternoon, expect
winds to veer more easterly and increase in strength, particularly
on the waters and immediate coast. 850mb flow also looks to
become onshore, and we`ll see dewpoints begin to rise as Gulf air
makes its way back into the picture.

Meanwhile, aloft, another of the briefest of ridges will already
be moving out and the next upper low will be pushing its way into
Texas, and we begin the whole process anew. And yes, that means
Thursday afternoon/evening will feature a developing coastal
trough farther down the coast spinning up into a coastal low as it
crosses the area. The diurnal timing is running later than this
one though, so rain chances will only begin to be increasing in
the west this evening, overspreading the area with high PoPs in
the west late in the night. The rest of the area will see the
impact of this event on Friday, and for that I turn it over to the
long term...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024

Friday appears to be another coastal low day, meaning we can
expect another round of rain as we end the workweek. Locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern, particularly near the coast. However,
the general synoptic theme through the long term continues to be a
progressive steering flow thanks to a strong subtropical jet
stream. Therefore, the system will be a fast mover thus
mitigating the flood threat. Confidence continues to increase that
the low will track near the coast, keeping the best chance of
stronger thunderstorms offshore. Gusty winds will be possible,
especially near the coast and bays, as the low moves through on
Friday.

Friday`s system quickly departs, yielding to a nice and cool
weekend with day time temps in the 50s/60s and morning lows mostly
in the 40s (30s northern counties). But the progressive pattern
will strike again, kicking out our sunny, cool high pressure
system and replacing it with yet another storm system on Monday.
Current deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests that a
deepening mid/upper trough moving over SW CONUS this weekend will
induce LL cyclogenesis near the Texas Panhandle by late Sunday
into early Monday. This will set the stage for a round of rain
and thunderstorms as we start the next workweek. Monday also
appears warmer with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The current outlook for next Tuesday features colder temperatures
in the wake of Monday`s system. Forecast highs are generally in
the 50s with lows mostly in the 30s. Some of the long range
guidance suggest the City of Houston could have its first freeze
(albeit a light freeze) of the season around the middle of next
week. The latest recorded first freeze of the season at Bush
Airport is January 11th, 2016. If Bush can`t accomplish a freeze
by mid-week, then this record will likely be in jeopardy. We
shall see!

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 522 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024

Overnight rain has moved out of the area, and strong, gusty north
winds in the wake of that rain is also moderating early this
morning. IFR/low MVFR CIGs are re-establishing themselves as well,
and while they are unlikely to go away, we should see slow
increase in cloud bases through the day, to MVFR this afternoon
and even a brief period of VFR this evening. Winds veer to
northeasterly/easterly late tonight, along with a mix of patchy
fog (primarily north, CLL/UTS/CXO) and stratus (IAH coastward) in
the pre-dawn hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024

Winds and seas will gradually decrease today as an area of low
pressure departs from the region. On Thursday, winds veer to the
east and begin to gradually increase again. The next system
impacts the region late Thursday into Friday, bringing rain and
thunderstorms along with increasing winds and seas. Small Craft
Advisory level conditions appear likely with localized gale
conditions possible near and within any thunderstorm. Conditions
will be much improved over the weekend. However, another storm
system could impact the region by Monday of next week, bringing
another round of rain and thunderstorms along with higher winds
and seas. It is worth mentioning that current guidance suggests
that winds and seas will be higher with the storm early next week
than in recent storms. But confidence in the model guidance that
far out will always be low.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 53 39 59 46 / 10 0 0 70
Houston (IAH) 54 41 58 47 / 0 0 0 50
Galveston (GLS) 55 50 60 54 / 0 0 0 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until noon CST today for
GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

[Cpv17]

I just saw someone post a 600 hour CFS temperature pic on FB

[jasons2k]

Only had .50” here. Once again, underperforming and less rain than expected, at least here. I know some places got decent rains but that dry slot killed it for a lot of us.

Back to work today, so I’m officially done with cold weather for the season. Bring on spring.

You need to have cold air build in place somewhere before it can get here…

[JDsGN]

Only had .50” here. Once again, underperforming and less rain than expected, at least here. I know some places got decent rains but that dry slot killed it for a lot of us.

Back to work today, so I’m officially done with cold weather for the season. Bring on spring.

You need to have cold air build in place somewhere before it can get here…

We only got 0.37 at my house in Cypress as well. We just kept getting missed to the south with the heavier showers when that drier slot set in. It looked so promising around 7:30 on radar. Its better than nothing but I haven't seen more than an inch in one rain event since i got my new weather station in October haha.

[biggerbyte]

There have been several hyped events this season, each getting pushed out further. It astonishes me at how many big names get on that hype train. Folks, get ready to be disappointed, again. Pay attention to what you see, not what you are being told. Maybe things will change down the road. Those long range forecasts are useless when we can't even get an accurate forecast a day out.

[don]

Picked up over 1" last night. Outside of a dry slot around Montgomery County most people received the forecasted amounts by HGX of .50-1"of rain.Not a bust IMO.