Long range model discussion

[sambucol]

If I recall correctly, Larry Cosgrov about a couple or so months ago approximately, mentioned an SSWE happening in the same timeframe.

[Stratton20]

The first week of january is looking really interesting in the ensembles, CMC and EPS ensembles are absolutely going bonkers with wintry mischief

[DoctorMu]

I'm just seeing an extended cool and mostly sunny period after today's rain - nearly 1.9 in from this storm.

GEPS ensemble has 3-5 freezes. At last, the mosquitoes will be gone for awhile.

[Stratton20]

Lol the Euro control 12z run has 1-2 inches of snow in se texas around the 3rd, definitely an extended period of colder weather, dont really see a lot of sunny weather though, STJ will keep things wet and cloudy for the most part

[sambucol]

Yes! Bring it!

[Harp1]

Lol the Euro control 12z run has 1-2 inches of snow in se texas around the 3rd, definitely an extended period of colder weather, dont really see a lot of sunny weather though, STJ will keep things wet and cloudy for the most part

Control run?

[Stratton20]

Harp1 yeah its a control run for the Euro Ensemble guidance, not really sure what the difference between the control run and just the regular ensemble runs are

[sambucol]

Larry Cosgrov mentioned an AI generated model last month. I think it was accurate.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Harp1 yeah its a control run for the Euro Ensemble guidance, not really sure what the difference between the control run and just the regular ensemble runs are

The control run is just one of the ensemble runs essentially.

[Harp1]

I see nothing encouraging on the operational models. Dry cold doesn’t excite me, sorry

[Stratton20]

The operational runs with precipitation mean nothing beyond 5-6 days, if you focus on precipitation output and type, each run will drive you insane, focus on the ensembles at this run, and the ensembles definitely are very encouraging for winter weather across the state

[kyzsl51]

I see nothing encouraging on the operational models. Dry cold doesn’t excite me, sorry

Not the end all be all....don't get trapped in late model runs.

[DoctorMu]

I see nothing encouraging on the operational models. Dry cold doesn’t excite me, sorry

Cool, dry, and sunny. Ideal weather!

[DoctorMu]

Ensembles are running colder than the models. We'll have a NW flow for awhile. We just need an ULL to form.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles are running colder than the models. We'll have a NW flow for awhile. We just need an ULL to form.

Tack on about 5-10 degrees to those temps then it’ll be accurate.

[Stratton20]

Big talk of a PV split or even complete disruption with SSWE or the reversal process beginning next week, could lead to some big time cold in the US potentially mid janaury, seems most guidance is pretty confident this SSWE will occur, in fact i dont think ive ever seen this much confidence in a SSWE occurring

[Stratton20]

00z EPS has a snowfall signal for parts of se texas in the 10 day window, im getting really interested in the 4-5th time frame across the state

[Stratton20]

12z Euro sees a potentially big arctic blast entering the US day 10 while the GFS is more mild, who will be right? Time will tell

[sambucol]

It’s going to get cold. Hopefully really cold with some fun precip

[Stratton20]

The EPS 12z has about 10-15 of the 50 members showing snow in houston around the 4th lol fwiw, dont know why i cant post a pic on here