December 2023

[Cpv17]

Has El Nino peaked yet or not?

Yeah and it’s about to start fading away. Neutral conditions will be here by late spring.

[Cromagnum]

Most overhyped El Nino ever.

[Cpv17]

Most overhyped El Nino ever.

I think the -PDO is to blame for that.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’ve never been a huge Nino fan like most on here and Storm2K. We are little too far south to benefit from a good Nino. Dallas to OKC is your sweet spot for a Nino.

We need a weak Modoki to squeeze anything out of the frozen variety.

Consider me a fan of neutral ENSO or weak Nina’s more for Winter weather.

[Cpv17]

I’ve never been a huge Nino fan like most on here and Storm2K. We are little too far south to benefit from a good Nino. Dallas to OKC is your sweet spot for a Nino.

We need a weak Modoki to squeeze anything out of the frozen variety.

Consider me a fan of neutral ENSO or weak Nina’s more for Winter weather.

I’m right there with ya on that and that’s why I’m really looking forward to next winter.

[Ptarmigan]

I’ve never been a huge Nino fan like most on here and Storm2K. We are little too far south to benefit from a good Nino. Dallas to OKC is your sweet spot for a Nino.

We need a weak Modoki to squeeze anything out of the frozen variety.

Consider me a fan of neutral ENSO or weak Nina’s more for Winter weather.

Some of the coldest winters have occurred in weak El Nino or La Nina or Modoki El Nino. The February 1895 snow and February 1899 freeze occurred in La Nina. 2009-2010 winter was Modoki El Nino.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I still believe we have better than average shots if something in January or February but we need the triumvirate of variables to cooperate.

[Stratton20]

EPO looks to head towards neutral to negative at the beginning of january, should have a firmly established -NAO, even the AO is trending towards neutral- negative and its been stuck in a strong phase for quite a while, Cosgroves thinks the later half of january through all of February will be on the colder side, im leaning towards an average- to slightly below average january in terms of temps, as for the SJT, we will just see how much of a player it is

[Pas_Bon]

https://youtu.be/H0-pHnykC9s?si=6GWmc1B7gVor9D0K

[869MB]

Has El Nino peaked yet or not?

Yeah and it’s about to start fading away. Neutral conditions will be here by late spring.

I don’t this El Niño has quite peaked just yet and fully coupled with the atmosphere yet. Yes Neutral and eventually La Niña are just over the horizon especially for the 2nd half of 2024. But there’s still plenty of warm water near the International Date Line that still needs to migrate eastward through the 3.4 Niño region and fully couples with the atmosphere above. This El Niño will probably peak sometime in January whereas most El Niño’s peak in December. So theoretically we probably will just begin to see a true El Niño pattern influence our region. This pattern should last us through at least May or June. Neutral and eventually La Niña returns later in 2024. We can already see the cooler waters taking shape near Australia.

So my guess is we will probably see 6 to maybe 9 months (if we’re lucky) of relief from the overall drier anomalies of the past 3 years of our infamous La Niña/-PDO combination before a more La Niña coupled atmosphere returns late 2024 and catches up with us in 2025. I mentioned this being a concern of mine at the beginning of this year. (Now this may make for a much more interesting 2024/2025 Winter Season but as far as rainfall chances for Spring/Summer 2025, yeah I’m not very optimistic at all.)

[Cpv17]

Has El Nino peaked yet or not?

Yeah and it’s about to start fading away. Neutral conditions will be here by late spring.

I don’t this El Niño has quite peaked just yet and fully coupled with the atmosphere yet. Yes Neutral and eventually La Niña are just over the horizon especially for the 2nd half of 2024. But there’s still plenty of warm water near the International Date Line that still needs to migrate eastward through the 3.4 Niño region and fully couples with the atmosphere above. This El Niño will probably peak sometime in January whereas most El Niño’s peak in December. So theoretically we probably will just begin to see a true El Niño pattern influence our region. This pattern should last us through at least May or June. Neutral and eventually La Niña returns later in 2024. We can already see the cooler waters taking shape near Australia.

So my guess is we will probably see 6 to maybe 9 months (if we’re lucky) of relief from the overall drier anomalies of the past 3 years of our infamous La Niña/-PDO combination before a more La Niña coupled atmosphere returns late 2024 and catches up with us in 2025. I mentioned this being a concern of mine at the beginning of this year. (Now this may make for a much more interesting 2024/2025 Winter Season but as far as rainfall chances for Spring/Summer 2025, yeah I’m not very optimistic at all.)

Yeah it might have 3-4 more weeks of slight warming but I think for the most part it’s just about done warming. I’m also really afraid of the spring and summer period of 2025 as well. Knowing our past history, watch us get a flood this summer from some tropical system. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

[869MB]

Yeah and it’s about to start fading away. Neutral conditions will be here by late spring.

I don’t this El Niño has quite peaked just yet and fully coupled with the atmosphere yet. Yes Neutral and eventually La Niña are just over the horizon especially for the 2nd half of 2024. But there’s still plenty of warm water near the International Date Line that still needs to migrate eastward through the 3.4 Niño region and fully couples with the atmosphere above. This El Niño will probably peak sometime in January whereas most El Niño’s peak in December. So theoretically we probably will just begin to see a true El Niño pattern influence our region. This pattern should last us through at least May or June. Neutral and eventually La Niña returns later in 2024. We can already see the cooler waters taking shape near Australia.

So my guess is we will probably see 6 to maybe 9 months (if we’re lucky) of relief from the overall drier anomalies of the past 3 years of our infamous La Niña/-PDO combination before a more La Niña coupled atmosphere returns late 2024 and catches up with us in 2025. I mentioned this being a concern of mine at the beginning of this year. (Now this may make for a much more interesting 2024/2025 Winter Season but as far as rainfall chances for Spring/Summer 2025, yeah I’m not very optimistic at all.)

Yeah it might have 3-4 more weeks of slight warming but I think for the most part it’s just about done warming. I’m also really afraid of the spring and summer period of 2025 as well. Knowing our past history, watch us get a flood this summer from some tropical system. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

Yeah that’s definitely a possibility…in fact I wouldn’t be shocked if we get affected by more than one tropical system during the 2024 Summer. Likewise, just because my expectations for lower rainfall accumulations in the Spring/Summer of 2025 due to the forthcoming La Niña doesn’t necessarily mean we will not see a significant tropical system during that 2025 Hurricane Season.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181704
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1104 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 306 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

High pressure will continue to dominate the local weather pattern
for the next few days. The day will start off cool with mostly
sunny skies. The highs today will once again be in the mid 60s to
around 70 degrees areawide. For tonight, cooler airmass will
filter into the region, resulting in lows in the low 30s over the
Piney Woods region, the upper 30s for areas north of I-10, the
upper 30s to low 40s for areas along and south of I-10, and the
mid to upper 40s over the coasts. Cloud coverage will also
increase tonight with partly cloudy skies continuing into Tuesday
as low level moisture slowly increases over Southeast TX. The cool
air will allow for highs to be slightly lower on Tuesday and are
expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s over areas east of I-45
and in the low to upper 60s for areas west of I-45.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1101 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

By midweek, the high pressure that provided us a few days of
tranquil weather will now be centered over Appalachia ushering in
southeasterly flow back into SE Texas. This southeasterly flow will
cause high temperatures to rise about 10 degrees compared to
Tuesday`s high temperatures with upper 60s to low 70s returning to
the area. Also say goodbye to the clear skies as there will be
increasing moisture with this onshore flow bringing partly cloudy
skies starting on Wednesday (and will only get cloudier through
the end of the week). There is a very weak upper level shortwave
moving through the area on Wednesday that could trigger an
isolated coastal shower or two. PWATs on Wednesday will still be
only around 0.7- 0.9", so any shower that does form will be quite
light. Overnight low temperatures Wednesday night will also be
quite warmer compared to the previous night with thermometers only
dropping down into the 50s for most of the area (maybe still some
upper 40s in the northern portions of Houston and Trinity
counties). Thursday will be quite similar to Wednesday, but just
with more cloud cover.

By Friday, rain chances increase as a stronger upper level
disturbance slides through the area and PWATs increase to around
1.5". Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the weekend as a series of disturbances move through the Southern
Plains. Activity will likely flux in coverage and intensity
through the period depending on the exact timing of these systems,
which is quite uncertain at this time. The unsettled weather will
continue until a cold front associated with a large upper level
low finally moves the the area, which at this time looks to happen
sometime Christmas Day/Monday.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1058 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

North winds 5-10 kts this aft then becoming light this eve. E-SE
winds will increase to around 10 kts late tomorrow morning. Will
see SCT high clouds tonight and tomorrow.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

A weak, dry cold front will move through the coastal waters this
morning bringing a slight northerly wind shift for a few hours.
The winds will become more northeasterly by tonight, and may
strengthen to near caution-levels by sunrise Tuesday. Easterly
winds around 15 kts Tuesday become southeasterly winds on
Wednesday and this will continue through the upcoming weekend with
seas between 3 and 5 feet. There will be a slight chance of
showers Thursday night, but the best potential for widespread
showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms will be Friday
through the weekend. There is also a slight chance of some sea fog
developing on Thursday as the warm onshore flow moves over the
cooler coastal waters.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 37 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 69 41 61 47 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 50 62 56 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Fowler

[don]

Models are actually looking pretty good when it comes to rainfall starting later this week through the weekend. As an ULL moves in from the Baja and combines with a trough/ULL moving in from the Pacific NW. As well as an active ST Jet overhead. Exact rainfall amounts are still in question. But models for right now are favoring areas along and north of I-10 to get the brunt of the rain. While saying that, they do show rain areawide though with several opportunities for rain going into next week. Let's see if we get burned again or not...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I believe the atmosphere is coupling now.

I’m loving the look of January. We will have opportunities but track will be everything.

Just give me a few weeks where the days in the 50s are the warm days and we have chances at frozen precip.

[Cpv17]

Overnight models came in a little better for rain. Hopefully it’s not another bust.

[Stratton20]

The 12z Euro has a light wintry mix in central texas at the end of its run lol

[user:null]

The real serious cold so far this winter has been over in Asia — record lows (or close to it) over in places like Beijing, Seoul, etc.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS is trending colder in the extended period

[sambucol]

Define extended period, please