November 2023

[Cpv17]

Looks like a strong + PNA is consistent in all guidance for a good chunk of december, trash

Where are you seeing this? I see the opposite lol I see a cool west and warm east over the next couple weeks.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 maybe im getting the PNA mixed up because i see a big ridge showing up on the GFS and CMC so just assumed that was a +PNA

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Cpv17 maybe im getting the PNA mixed up because i see a big ridge showing up on the GFS and CMC so just assumed that was a +PNA

No… a positive PNA with a negative AO favors the East to be cool to cold.

[Cpv17]

Now it’s Mike Elko headed to A&M lol see if that actually sticks this time.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Now it’s Mike Elko headed to A&M lol see if that actually sticks this time.

It’s been announced by the people that matter.

[Cpv17]

Now it’s Mike Elko headed to A&M lol see if that actually sticks this time.

It’s been announced by the people that matter.

He was a safety net hire. They had him in their back pocket in case other options didn’t work.

[tireman4]

Good morning. So far, our coach is still at Liberty!!

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271123
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
523 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

A chilly surface high pressure system will continue building
southward today while southwesterly flow aloft continues to supply
UL moisture from the Tropical Pacific resulting in high clouds.
Temperatures across the CWA this morning are in the 30s and 40s. Mix
of sun and clouds this afternoon with temperatures in the mid/upper
50s. Expect another night down in the 30s and 40s tonight. LL flow
veers to a more easterly regime on Tuesday as the aforementioned
high pressure system pushes eastward. Temps may be a tad warmer but
it will still be on the cool side with highs in the upper-50s to low-
60s. The return of onshore flow is expected to keep the coast in the
50s on Tuesday night while inland areas drop well down into the 40s
with 30s in our far northern counties.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

By Wednesday, an eastward shift of surface high pressure will
bring about a return of onshore flow that will supply the region
with a fairly robust plume of Gulf moisture. Global models
continue to indicate a sharp rise in total PWs to over 1.5 in as
surface cyclogenesis to our northwest promotes a relatively tight
pressure gradient. This will be reflected in an increase in
daytime highs on Wednesday to the upper 60s, while overnight lows
will generally range in the 50s to near 60.

The aforementioned surface low, along with the approach of an
associated midlevel trough from the west, will provide the area
with an active period of weather for the end of the week and into
the weekend. With PWs continuing to rise on Thursday and the
approaching shortwave providing PVA, conditions should be
favorable for the development of widespread rain across the area.
SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg, particularly near the coast, will
support the development of thunderstorms. As the surface low
tracks to the NE on Thursday night and into Friday, an associated
cold front will move into the Southern Plains. Global models are
in a bit better agreement tonight in showing this boundary
reaching the coast, though it appears likely to stall out not far
offshore and thus continue to serve as a mechanism for additional
rainfall into Saturday. Surface high pressure will become better
established over the area on Sunday and should put an end to the
rainfall potential.

There remains a fairly wide spread in temperatures across model
solutions due to slight discrepancies surrounding the exact
timing and positioning of the cold front...though in general lows
can be expected to drop slightly into the upper 40s/low 50s behind
the front on Friday night. Lingering showers and associated cloud
cover will result in a slight increase in lows for Saturday night
into the mid/upper 50s, while clearer conditions on Sunday night
will see temperatures dip as low as the upper 40s once again.
Daytime highs should generally remain in the upper 60s/low 70s.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 518 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Gusty winds near the coast will gradually decrease today. General
winds across the region are expected to be 5 to 10 knots from the
north to northeast. Cigs and vis will remain VFR through the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Winds and seas will gradually diminish over the course of the day,
though conditions should still remain above caution thresholds
until early tomorrow. Onshore flow redevelops on Wednesday and
becomes stronger on Thursday, likely requiring additional cautions
and/or advisories. The approach of a disturbance on Thursday will
bring widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to the area. On
Friday, a surface cold front will approach the coast, bringing
with it a shift to offshore winds and additional rainfall chances.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 56 38 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 58 41 61 43 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 58 48 60 53 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cady

[Cromagnum]

Looks like our radar is out for a couple weeks for maintenance.

[tireman4]

0
FXUS64 KHGX 281130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

We continue to be under the influence of a surface high pressure
system centered over north Texas this morning. Continued high clouds
have prevented temperatures from falling as low as they otherwise
would. That being said, it is quite chilly outside this morning with
most areas in the 40s. Drier air in the ML/UL will increase the
chance of these high level clouds breaking, resulting in more
sunshine today. Afternoon temps will be pleasantly cool in the low
60s. Temp grids show a few spots warming into the mid 60s. As the
aforementioned high pushes eastward, LL flow will veer east. The
resulting onshore flow will likely keep some coastal communities in
the 50s through the overnight while inland areas fall into the 40s.

Surface high pressure continues its eastward progression on
Wednesday. Meanwhile over the southwest CONUS, a robust mid/upper
trough will quickly propagate eastward, inducing surface pressure
falls over west Texas. The resulting tightening gradient will
gradually increase SE onshore flow on Wednesday into Wednesday
night, bringing both moisture advection and WAA to the region.
Wednesday`s highs are forecast to range from the low 60s in our
northern most counties to the upper 60s to near 70 south of I-10. By
Wednesday night, we begin to add lift to the increasingly moist
environment, increasing rain chances from west to east overnight.
Wednesday night temps are expected to be in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Increasing southeast winds are expected to become gusty Wednesday
night, possibly gusting over 25 MPH near the coast by midnight.

The situation becomes more volatile on Thursday. But I will leave
that to the long term desk to discuss.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Thursday is still looking like a very active day for the area as a
storm system organizes/deepens in the northern Texas-southern Oklahoma
region. Strong/gusty south surface winds, a strengthening low level
jet and abundant moisture will help to increase shear and helicity resulting
in the potential for some strong and/or severe thunderstorm development
mainly in the late morning through afternoon hours (SPC has SE TX in
slight risk on their Day 3 Convective Outlook). Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with this system with totals of 1 to 2 inches common
and isolated higher amounts possible, especially around and to the east
of the Interstate 45 corridor. Expecting to see decreasing rain/storm
coverage from west to east in the afternoon. Gusty south winds can be
expected for most of the day, especially near/along the coast where
a wind advisory might be needed. High temperatures will be in an upper
60s to lower 70s range. The cold front with this system will move off
the coast Thursday night and linger in that area into the weekend. Some
higher moisture levels near the coast will support some rain chances
Friday through Sunday night. The area looks to finally clear out on
Monday. Low temperatures in the 40s/50s are in the forecast Thursday
night through Sunday night. High temperatures should be mainly in the
60s Friday through Monday. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 529 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR cigs/vis with light veering winds are expected through the
TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Weakening northeast to east winds and lowering seas can be expected
today. Light winds and low seas will then persist through late Wednesday.
Strengthening southerly flow is expected to begin late Wednesday with
widespread showers and thunderstorms developing across the area Wednesday
night into Friday. Thursday`s strong south winds will likely lead to
a Small Craft Advisory, and gusts could get close to gales. A cold front
is expected to push off the coast on Friday resulting in a shift to
north and northeast winds, but this front may stall offshore leading
to periods of unsettled conditions lasting into the weekend. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 62 42 63 57 / 0 0 10 70
Houston (IAH) 62 43 66 58 / 0 0 0 70
Galveston (GLS) 61 55 68 62 / 0 0 0 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until noon CST today for
GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Adams

[tireman4]

As Cromagnum stated, the radar is down...

The KHGX radar will be down for maintenance for about 2 weeks beginning today, November 27. Several surrounding radars will help cover the region should any precipitation fall while it is down. See below for further details, or at this link: https://weather.gov/media/hgx/radar.pdf

[Cromagnum]

What are thoughts on activity to end the work week? I was looking at SPC a minute ago and the Day 3 convective outlook is the most lively at the moment.

[tireman4]

Pat Cavlin
@pcavlin
THURSDAY STORM UPDATE -

Potent dynamics will lead to a tornado threat across SE #Texas on Thursday

Dangerous storms will most likely develop and travel along a lifting warm front

Have *several* ways to get warnings on Thursday and a plan in place

#Houston #khou11 #TXwx

[Cromagnum]

We talking more of an afternoon or after dark setup on Thursday?

[Stratton20]

I really hope the severe potential doesnt happen in the late evening hours, nothing more scary than that

[sambucol]

Pat Cavlin
@pcavlin
THURSDAY STORM UPDATE -

Potent dynamics will lead to a tornado threat across SE #Texas on Thursday

Dangerous storms will most likely develop and travel along a lifting warm front

Have *several* ways to get warnings on Thursday and a plan in place

#Houston #khou11 #TXwx

Will this start morning, afternoon, or Thursday night? Trying to figure out if someone can be home with the dogs. One is scared of thunderstorms.

[djmike]

Evening into Thursday night for Beaumont

[Cpv17]

Pat Cavlin
@pcavlin
THURSDAY STORM UPDATE -

Potent dynamics will lead to a tornado threat across SE #Texas on Thursday

Dangerous storms will most likely develop and travel along a lifting warm front

Have *several* ways to get warnings on Thursday and a plan in place

#Houston #khou11 #TXwx

Will this start morning, afternoon, or Thursday night? Trying to figure out if someone can be home with the dogs. One is scared of thunderstorms.

Mid morning into the early evening hours for most of us.

[tireman4]

Thursday is still looking like a very active day for the area as a
storm system organizes/deepens in the northern Texas-southern Oklahoma
region. Strong/gusty south surface winds, a strengthening low level
jet and abundant moisture will help to increase shear and helicity resulting
in the potential for some strong and/or severe thunderstorm development
mainly in the late morning through afternoon hours (SPC has SE TX in
slight risk on their Day 3 Convective Outlook)

[Cpv17]

Thursday is still looking like a very active day for the area as a
storm system organizes/deepens in the northern Texas-southern Oklahoma
region. Strong/gusty south surface winds, a strengthening low level
jet and abundant moisture will help to increase shear and helicity resulting
in the potential for some strong and/or severe thunderstorm development
mainly in the late morning through afternoon hours (SPC has SE TX in
slight risk on their Day 3 Convective Outlook)

Hearing that could be upgraded to enhanced.

[Cromagnum]

Baptiste with a lot of info about Thursday.

Thursday is shaping up to be quite the active day with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, so I apologize in advance for how long I'm going to spend talking about it here...just want to make sure y`all have as much information as possible! I`ll include a quick summary here for those that don't want to sift through all of the meteorological jargon. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected on Thursday as an upper level disturbance taps into deeper Gulf moisture ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of these storms could become strong to severe, especially during the late morning and afternoon hours. All severe hazards (tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds) will be possible, so be sure to stay up to date on the forecast and please be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings. Southeast TX is under a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather on Thursday. Rain gradually comes to an end late Thursday night/early Friday morning as a cold front pushes through the region. The next two paragraphs will break down the rainfall and severe weather potential for Thursday...onward we go!
<
A surface trough currently in the Bay of Campeche continues to deepen with deeper moisture clearly evident on water vapor satellite imagery. As a mid to upper level trough sweeps through the Four Corners region, surface low pressure is generated via lee cyclogenesis around the TX/OK panhandles on late Wednesday. The tightening pressure gradient creates a funnel that allows the moisture from that surface trough to surge into Southeast TX. This eventually leads to PW values reaching the 1.4"-1.7" range by Thursday afternoon (90th percentile: ~1.48"). This means that there is a risk for locally heavy rainfall in any of the stronger storms that develop. The flood risk looks relatively slim though and may only pose a risk in flood prone areas underneath a storm producing high rainfall rates. Between Thursday morning and Thursday night, we are expecting widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" with isolated higher amount possible. Most of Southeast TX is under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday. Let's move on to the severe weather threat...
MISC
As the mid to upper level trough moves through north TX on Thursday, it becomes negatively tilted which is indicative of more than sufficient vertical wind shear. Sure enough, a 45-55 kt LLJ (oriented from SW to NE) streaming overhead on Thursday morning/afternoon offers plenty of wind shear. I mentioned the direction of the winds aloft because at the surface we'll have southerly to southeasterly winds...and pretty gusty winds at that! A Wind Advisory looks likely at least along the barrier islands on Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly winds at the surface and southwesterly winds aloft means veering winds with height, which is not only indicative of WAA but also adds directional wind sheer into the equation to pair with the speed shear. So, when we take a look at some forecast soundings, it's not a surprise that the hodographs have the classic curved look that usually indicate the potential for rotating updrafts (tornadic potential). Here are some additional parameters that point towards favorable severe weather potential on Thursday: MUCAPE ~1500-2000 J/kg, DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg, 700mb-500mb lapse rates between 7-8°C/km, 0-6km bulk shear ~40-50 knots, 0-1km SRH greater than 300 m²/s², 0-3km SRH greater than 400 m²/s², 0-1km shear greater than 30 knots, LCL heights around 3000 ft, and an axis of 65°F dew points coinciding with an axis of instability mainly west of 1-45/south of 1-10. As a res Storm Prediction Center has placed essentially all of Southeast TX risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather on Thursday. All severe ha (tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds) will be possible, so please b stay up to date with the latest forecast information and to have multiple ways to receive warnings.