Looking at the models,it looks like things should be pretty quiet.With on and off light showers and drizzle until Sunday night.That would stop the grounds from being overly saturated and mitigate flooding issues.
Late Sunday through Monday is when a vigorous shortwave moves through and triggers a gulf low.That's when there should be an enhancement to rainfall.Rainfall amounts will be highly dependent on instability and the track of the surface low.The further offshore the low is the less precip we will have here.For right now a broad brush of 1-2 inches of rain looks like a safe bet Monday area wide.But there could be much higher totals south of I-10 depending on the track of the low.So I wouldn't rule out street flooding yet.
Doesnt look like we will get as much rain as originally thought if it all stays offshore and Monday is the only day left for the bulk. Nws changed my percentage from 80% today down to 40% and Sunday is now 20%. Houston is worse. Now 30% for Saturday and Sunday. So much for drought busting soaking rains.
Last edited by djmike on Sat Nov 11, 2023 9:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
Nah, everyone will have rain on Monday.I expect most to see 1-2 inches of rain.Could see more rain south of I-10 maybe 2-4 inches but that depends on the track of the surface low and instability.Mondays shortwave is too vigorous to not produce widespread rainfall.
(Also while some model runs showed pretty high rainfall amounts, "drought busting" rainfall was never part of the forecast. There's a difference between forecast models and the forecast the WPC/NWS actually put out.Lower your expectations...)
Things will be quiet until then though.I expect Mondays rain to "fill in the gaps".The distribution of rainfall may be different than forecast (ie: most of the rain from the event will fall on Monday instead of being spread out)but the forecast from WPC looks to still be on track.
The 12z GFS trended north significantly with the rain. Looks a lot better now for sure. Haven’t checked the mesos yet though but at least the GFS is on our side now.
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 11:01 am
A&M is such a dumpster fire right now. More people than just Jimbo need to be gone. And the timing doesn’t make any sense to me.
Everyone involved in his contract extension all need to be shown the door.
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 11:01 am
A&M is such a dumpster fire right now. More people than just Jimbo need to be gone. And the timing doesn’t make any sense to me.
Everyone involved in his contract extension all need to be shown the door.
Thanksgiving timefram is getting interesting, the 12z Euro is intriguing, strong blocking sets up over alaska ( on ensembles as well) lol pumping cold air into the US, ensembles are trending in the right direction, lots to watch, but interesting pattern shaping up in the long range
The rain is on the way,and will slowly spread throughout the area as the day progresses.The shortwave will also become negatively tilted tonight/tomorrow which will help with lift and moisture.The rain is actually moving in earlier than what was expected.
The rain is here.Rainfall rates will increase tonight/tomorrow as the Gulf low starts to form.No flooding issues expected as rainfall rates should stay well below flash flood criteria.Just a long soaking rain.
Houston is worse. Now 30% for Saturday and Sunday. So much for drought busting soaking rains.
The shortwave will also become negatively tilted tonight/tomorrow which will help with lift and moisture.The rain is actually moving in earlier than what was expected.