November 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5696
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 4:37 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 4:32 pm Next FROPA on schedule for Thursday evening.


Jimbo is betting fat off A&M. He's as soft as the 5* team. They need Leopold from Kansas, Peterson from Washington, or Dan Lanning from Oregon. O&G $ > Nike $.

The offense wasn't terrible but then Ole Miss' defense is not very good.

Durkin gave away 550 yds or so of offense. You'd think he could game plan for Lane Kiffin.
Todd Monken would be a good one but not sure he’d wanna leave an NFL OC job to be a HC in college. At least I think he would be a good one. Great proven track record.

Texans! Damn, what a freaking game! Might’ve been about the best Texans game I can remember watching.

Not sure if Monken can recruit - he's only been a college HC at So. MIss.

If A&M is going to take a chance with someone who is not Peterson, Lanning, or Leopold it should be Glenn Schumann, the UGA DC.

Especially since he could be in line for Saban's job when GOAT retires.
Cpv17
Posts: 5299
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 4:56 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 4:37 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 4:32 pm Next FROPA on schedule for Thursday evening.


Jimbo is betting fat off A&M. He's as soft as the 5* team. They need Leopold from Kansas, Peterson from Washington, or Dan Lanning from Oregon. O&G $ > Nike $.

The offense wasn't terrible but then Ole Miss' defense is not very good.

Durkin gave away 550 yds or so of offense. You'd think he could game plan for Lane Kiffin.
Todd Monken would be a good one but not sure he’d wanna leave an NFL OC job to be a HC in college. At least I think he would be a good one. Great proven track record.

Texans! Damn, what a freaking game! Might’ve been about the best Texans game I can remember watching.

Not sure if Monken can recruit - he's only been a college HC at So. MIss.

If A&M is going to take a chance with someone who is not Peterson, Lanning, or Leopold it should be Glenn Schumann, the UGA DC.

Especially since he could be in line for Saban's job when GOAT retires.
Idk. I think his prestigious name and the conference prestige would be 75% of the recruiting alone. I’d just like to see what he could do as a HC at a P5 program. All the names you mentioned would be solid as well.
Pas_Bon
Posts: 309
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:58 am
Location: League City, TX
Contact:

Back to weather……it looks like we are getting some pretty good signals for the wet stuff over the next few weeks
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

What about some cold weather?
Cpv17
Posts: 5299
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

sambucol wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 10:01 pm What about some cold weather?
No cold weather anytime soon. Maybe some rain later this week into the weekend.
Stratton20
Posts: 4248
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

sambucol maybe a couple of decent fronts the next few weeks, but real cold weather probably wont return until December, jet stream pattern stays zonal flow through most of november, brining milder air in from the pacific
Cpv17
Posts: 5299
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Most of y’all probably don’t care cuz it’s not news of a significant cold snap but the WPC has most of southeast TX receiving 2-4” of rain over the next 7 days.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2618
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 3:01 pm Most of y’all probably don’t care cuz it’s not news of a significant cold snap but the WPC has most of southeast TX receiving 2-4” of rain over the next 7 days.
Oh I've been watching it.😉 The end of the week and into next week is looking active. Models are showing some nice rainfall amounts also.

Image

Image
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4001
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 10:40 pm
sambucol wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 10:01 pm What about some cold weather?
No cold weather anytime soon. Maybe some rain later this week into the weekend.
As much as I like cold weather, I prefer more rain.
Cromagnum
Posts: 2623
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Weather is hot garbage right now. Nearly 90 degrees the next two days.
Stratton20
Posts: 4248
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Forecast calls for mid to upper 80’s here the next several days, absolutely abysmal and putrid weather, can we just hit the fast forward button to winter already?
Cpv17
Posts: 5299
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 9:36 pm Forecast calls for mid to upper 80’s here the next several days, absolutely abysmal and putrid weather, can we just hit the fast forward button to winter already?
Low to mid 80’s for my area the next 3 days. 15-20 degree cooldown coming late Thursday along with rain. Nothing really to complain about imo.
Stratton20
Posts: 4248
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Cpv17 Guess i didnt see we have another front incoming, bring it! But the real cold stuff will probably have to wait until december, still a pretty decently lacking snowpack in canada and the US, any cold air intrusions will modify rapidly
davidiowx
Posts: 1063
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

Ptarmigan wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 9:17 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 10:40 pm
sambucol wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 10:01 pm What about some cold weather?
No cold weather anytime soon. Maybe some rain later this week into the weekend.
As much as I like cold weather, I prefer more rain.
Me likey! Couldn’t agree more. We need rain
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5401
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

What a beautiful morning! Today’s walk felt amazing. Looking forward to another round on rain to replenish us. Don’t forget to vote.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 9:34 am What a beautiful morning! Today’s walk felt amazing. Looking forward to another round on rain to replenish us. Don’t forget to vote.
Took my 8 year old to vote last week and he couldn’t understand why we weren’t voting for people. We were the only voters in our polling location and he kept asking why I was voting against or for. Election workers were rolling laughing.

I know some of Houston people are voting for people. Good luck and be wise!
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4488
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Yep, voted for amendments here too ( Unincorporated part of Harris County).

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071714
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1114 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2023

Some patchy fog has been popping up south and west of the Houston
Metro after midnight, and this patchy fog will continue to be
possible through sunrise then dissipating. Expect slightly warmer
conditions today as southerly flow continues at the surface and
the flow aloft turns more southwesterly. High temperatures will
rise into the mid to upper 80s for most of the region today with
heat indicies approaching 90 degrees. Cirrus clouds will continue
to stream in from the East Pacific today and tomorrow as the
southwesterly flow aloft persists. The moist onshore flow may lead
to some isolated light streamer showers along the coast this
afternoon, but the chances and coverage of these showers are very
limited. After the sun sets, the already low chances of these
showers becomes zero. Patchy fog may again develop across the
southwestern counties after midnight tonight. Overnight
temperatures will dip down into the mid to upper 60s.

Wednesday will be almost a carbon copy of today with high
temperatures into the mid to upper 80s, high level clouds, and
then overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2023

The long term part of the forecast will continue to be rather active
and messy with the passage of a cold front by the end of the week to
a possible coastal trough of low pressure over the weekend. And with
all of this, a potential for widespread rainfall for much of the CWA.
While there are still some inconsistencies with regards to location/
timing of the weekend coastal system, there`s also hints that global
models might be slowly coming to some agreement.

With increasing clouds/rain chances (from the north) through the day
on Thurs, most of SE TX will remain warm and humid through the after-
noon. Highs will range from the upper 70s north to the lower and mid
80s south. The front is forecast to begin edging into Brazos Valley/
Piney Woods corridor late Thurs afternoon...eventually tracking S/SE
across the FA to the coast through Thurs night and early Fri morning.
Showers (along with some isolated thunderstorms) should develop just
head of the front, and continue to fill in as it moves into the area.
With deep tropical moisture already in place and a favorable jet pat-
tern aloft, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Rainfall totals
should average from 1 to 2 inches across our northern counties and 2
to 3 inches south (especially at/near the coast)...but higher totals
(additional 1 to 3 inches) will be possible over isolated locations.
Cooler temperatures will be in place for Fri with breezy north winds
and highs in the 60s. We could also see some briefly clearing skies.

However, the big question marks will remain for the weekend forecast
with regards to the location/track of the coastal low as well as how
far the cold front and its associated moisture make it into the Gulf.
For now, will keep with a mostly dry Fri night north of I-10, to low
POPs (20-30%) south. These chances will be increasing as the weekend
progresses (higher south to north) with POPs ranging from 50% to 20%.
However, will keep the highest POPs over the Gulf waters through the
weekend (+50%). 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2023

Seeing sct CU across the SE half of the area, and cirrus as well
areawide. Likely to see some MVFR/IFR ceilings across the
northern TAF sites late tonight and early tomorrow. Further south,
chances are lower. Southerly winds will continue around 15 kts
this aft, decreasing to 5 to 10 kt in the eve.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2023

Generally light to moderate onshore winds will prevail over the Upper
TX coastal waters through late Thurs, with seas remaining around 2 to
4 feet. Caution flags might be needed at times. Winds are expected to
weaken and become more SE by Thurs night...ahead of a cold front mov-
ing into SE TX. This front should push off the coast by late Thurs to
early Fri morning...with widespread showers and thunderstorms accomp-
anying it. A shift to strong N/NW winds and increasing seas will also
develop in its wake by early Fri morning and persist into the weekend
(perhaps becoming more NE with time). Caution flags are expected, and
Small Craft Advisories are possible through this time frame. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 68 85 67 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 86 68 85 67 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 80 71 79 71 / 10 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...41
user:null
Posts: 416
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2022 7:04 pm
Location: The Land of Sugar
Contact:

Hobby Airport's lowest temp so far this year is 37°F from earlier this January. So it has a chance of going the entire 2023 without a single frost, depending on what happens the remainder of this November and through December.
Cpv17
Posts: 5299
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Today’s 12z Euro is a thing of beauty!
Stratton20
Posts: 4248
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Cpv17 no kidding! Widespread 3-6 inches with isolated 8 + totals, yes please!
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Semrush [Bot] and 63 guests