October 2023
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4250
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
overnight global guidance comes in colder, gfs has highs in low- mid 40’s for all of se texas on halloween with overunning chilly rain, CMC has multiple days with highs in the mid 40’s for se texas, with even some upper 30’s for highs showing up, has some overrunning precipitation, but all liquid at this time, potential is increasing for this to be the coldest halloween in years!
Pretty exciting news, for sure!Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 11:36 pm overnight global guidance comes in colder, gfs has highs in low- mid 40’s for all of se texas on halloween with overunning chilly rain, CMC has multiple days with highs in the mid 40’s for se texas, with even some upper 30’s for highs showing up, has some overrunning precipitation, but all liquid at this time, potential is increasing for this to be the coldest halloween in years!
Dew points out there are insane for late October. I had a dew point of 75° this morning.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4496
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
Today will feature more widespread showers and thunderstorms
compared to the past several days as a subtle upper level shortwave
taps into the exceptionally moist conditions in SE Texas. PWATs
today will rise to near 2.3 to 2.5 inches allowing for ample
moisture to fuel the precipitation. The showers and thunderstorms
currently located in central Texas will slowly move eastwards
through the morning entering the Brazos Valley in the late morning
hours to around Noon. There will be some streamer showers the
develop across the area ahead of this line of storms through the
morning, but these showers will generally produce light rainfall.
The line of showers that moves in from the west will have some
embedded stronger storms producing rain rates of 1 to 2" per hour. A
combination of these existing storms and increased daytime heating
will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms across most of the
area, but particularly north of I-10, between Noon and sunset.
Isolated showers and storms will continue to be possible through
late this evening towards Midnight. For today, rainfall totals for
most of the area will generally be up to 1" with isolated higher
amounts of 2 to 3" likely. However, training storms may be possible
this afternoon do to the deep, moist southerly fetch across the area
bringing the possibility of isolated higher amounts of 4"+. CAM
guidance has been hinting that areas north and west of Montgomery
County will have the best chance of seeing these training storms.
Minor urban and small stream flooding is likely if those training
storms set up. WPC has placed areas north of US-59 in a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall today, then areas north
and west of the Houston Metro in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4).
Precipitation coverage decreases by 10pm tonight, but could still
see some lingering isolated showers through midnight north of
Huntsville. The lull in precipitation will continue through the
morning with the exception of some streamer showers due to the high
PWATs still in the region. But, showers and thunderstorms increase
in coverage by Noon thanks to daytime heating that will continue
through Friday evening. Not expecting as high rainfall totals on
Friday, but could still see an additional inch or so of rainfall.
Like today, the showers and storms dissipate by Midnight.
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the short term
thanks to the humid, southerly flow. Afternoon high temperatures
today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows
in the low to mid 70s for the majority of the area. The immediate
coast will continue to see slightly cooler high temperatures, but
warmer low temperatures.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
The southeast Texas atmosphere will be dominated by a ridge over
the Gulf on Saturday, promising another very warm and humid day
with a chance of isolated showers. Afternoon temps well into the
80s are anticipated. Couldn`t rule out an isolated 90F in a few
spots. However, the ridge will gradually lose its influence over our
region, yielding its dominance to a deep layer trough digging
southward over the western United States. By Sunday, a strong cold
front will push towards our region. FROPA timing still a little
tricky. When wrong, models tend to be a too slow with the forward
motion of strong fronts. Therefore, we went a little cooler than
the guidance for our northern counties on Sunday, showing highs in
the upper-70s as opposed to the 80s. We think most of the region
squeezes out one more warm and humid day on Sunday (FROPA timing
depending). The winds of change are forecast to impact the entire
CWA Sunday night into Monday morning.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected in association
with the front. Due to lingering mid-level troffiness to our west,
we expect enough overrunning to keep clouds and rain chances over
our CWA through Monday and possibly even into Tuesday. With
plentiful CAA and cloud cover, afternoon highs on Monday are not
expected to warm out of the 50s. Our temp grids even keep our
northern counties in the upper-40s! Most of the CWA is forecast to
be in the 40s overnight Monday. We generally went a tad cooler
than NBM guidance and cannot rule out further downward reductions
given the set up. Remember, these chilly temps will be
accompanied by gusty north winds and scattered showers. Great book
reading weather!
There is some uncertainty regarding the Tuesday-Wednesday forecast
due to the presence of many moving parts in the atmosphere. First,
is the residual troffiness mentioned in the paragraph above. The
longer the troffiness lingers, the longer the clouds and rain
chances linger. Second, is the possibility of a robust shortwave
trough that moves across the northern U.S. and potentially brings
a reinforcing cold front to the region. However, we are relatively
confident that temperatures will remain colder than normal. So
expect a chilly Halloween for southeast Texas standards. Perhaps
an arctic explorer isn`t a bad idea for a costume this year.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
Scattered rain showers this morning will become more widespread
during the late morning and persist through this evening. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, especially for terminals north of
I-10. By the afternoon, some isolated thunderstorms will be
embedded in the widespread showers as well. MVFR conditions will
prevail through the day today with CIGs around 2500ft, but there
will be temporary periods of IFR conditions due to reduced
visibilities from rainfall and low CIGS in the stronger storms. A
lull in the precipitation will occur tonight, but scattered
showers return by Friday afternoon. CIGs will lower to 700 to
1500ft tonight across for CXO, UTS, and CLL and persist through
sunrise Friday. Southeasterly winds around 6 to 10kts, with higher
gusts during the afternoon hours and near storms, will continue
through the period.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
Moderate onshore flow and 4-6 foot seas are expected today, along
with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of
the thunderstorm activity is expected to remain inland. However,
an isolated storm capable of producing locally higher winds and
seas is possible. By Friday into the weekend, rain chances and
seas decrease while light to moderate southeast winds remain. By
Sunday night or early Monday, a strong cold front is expected to
push offshore. Strong north winds are expected in its wake.
Current forecast show sustained winds of up to 25 knots with gusts
approaching 35 knots with 5-9 foot seas offshore on Monday and
Tuesday. This would easily put conditions into small craft
territory and very close to gale status. We cannot rule out gale
conditions, at least at times, on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 72 83 70 / 80 40 60 20
Houston (IAH) 84 73 85 71 / 70 30 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 75 81 74 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT this morning for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
Today will feature more widespread showers and thunderstorms
compared to the past several days as a subtle upper level shortwave
taps into the exceptionally moist conditions in SE Texas. PWATs
today will rise to near 2.3 to 2.5 inches allowing for ample
moisture to fuel the precipitation. The showers and thunderstorms
currently located in central Texas will slowly move eastwards
through the morning entering the Brazos Valley in the late morning
hours to around Noon. There will be some streamer showers the
develop across the area ahead of this line of storms through the
morning, but these showers will generally produce light rainfall.
The line of showers that moves in from the west will have some
embedded stronger storms producing rain rates of 1 to 2" per hour. A
combination of these existing storms and increased daytime heating
will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms across most of the
area, but particularly north of I-10, between Noon and sunset.
Isolated showers and storms will continue to be possible through
late this evening towards Midnight. For today, rainfall totals for
most of the area will generally be up to 1" with isolated higher
amounts of 2 to 3" likely. However, training storms may be possible
this afternoon do to the deep, moist southerly fetch across the area
bringing the possibility of isolated higher amounts of 4"+. CAM
guidance has been hinting that areas north and west of Montgomery
County will have the best chance of seeing these training storms.
Minor urban and small stream flooding is likely if those training
storms set up. WPC has placed areas north of US-59 in a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall today, then areas north
and west of the Houston Metro in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4).
Precipitation coverage decreases by 10pm tonight, but could still
see some lingering isolated showers through midnight north of
Huntsville. The lull in precipitation will continue through the
morning with the exception of some streamer showers due to the high
PWATs still in the region. But, showers and thunderstorms increase
in coverage by Noon thanks to daytime heating that will continue
through Friday evening. Not expecting as high rainfall totals on
Friday, but could still see an additional inch or so of rainfall.
Like today, the showers and storms dissipate by Midnight.
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the short term
thanks to the humid, southerly flow. Afternoon high temperatures
today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows
in the low to mid 70s for the majority of the area. The immediate
coast will continue to see slightly cooler high temperatures, but
warmer low temperatures.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
The southeast Texas atmosphere will be dominated by a ridge over
the Gulf on Saturday, promising another very warm and humid day
with a chance of isolated showers. Afternoon temps well into the
80s are anticipated. Couldn`t rule out an isolated 90F in a few
spots. However, the ridge will gradually lose its influence over our
region, yielding its dominance to a deep layer trough digging
southward over the western United States. By Sunday, a strong cold
front will push towards our region. FROPA timing still a little
tricky. When wrong, models tend to be a too slow with the forward
motion of strong fronts. Therefore, we went a little cooler than
the guidance for our northern counties on Sunday, showing highs in
the upper-70s as opposed to the 80s. We think most of the region
squeezes out one more warm and humid day on Sunday (FROPA timing
depending). The winds of change are forecast to impact the entire
CWA Sunday night into Monday morning.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected in association
with the front. Due to lingering mid-level troffiness to our west,
we expect enough overrunning to keep clouds and rain chances over
our CWA through Monday and possibly even into Tuesday. With
plentiful CAA and cloud cover, afternoon highs on Monday are not
expected to warm out of the 50s. Our temp grids even keep our
northern counties in the upper-40s! Most of the CWA is forecast to
be in the 40s overnight Monday. We generally went a tad cooler
than NBM guidance and cannot rule out further downward reductions
given the set up. Remember, these chilly temps will be
accompanied by gusty north winds and scattered showers. Great book
reading weather!
There is some uncertainty regarding the Tuesday-Wednesday forecast
due to the presence of many moving parts in the atmosphere. First,
is the residual troffiness mentioned in the paragraph above. The
longer the troffiness lingers, the longer the clouds and rain
chances linger. Second, is the possibility of a robust shortwave
trough that moves across the northern U.S. and potentially brings
a reinforcing cold front to the region. However, we are relatively
confident that temperatures will remain colder than normal. So
expect a chilly Halloween for southeast Texas standards. Perhaps
an arctic explorer isn`t a bad idea for a costume this year.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
Scattered rain showers this morning will become more widespread
during the late morning and persist through this evening. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, especially for terminals north of
I-10. By the afternoon, some isolated thunderstorms will be
embedded in the widespread showers as well. MVFR conditions will
prevail through the day today with CIGs around 2500ft, but there
will be temporary periods of IFR conditions due to reduced
visibilities from rainfall and low CIGS in the stronger storms. A
lull in the precipitation will occur tonight, but scattered
showers return by Friday afternoon. CIGs will lower to 700 to
1500ft tonight across for CXO, UTS, and CLL and persist through
sunrise Friday. Southeasterly winds around 6 to 10kts, with higher
gusts during the afternoon hours and near storms, will continue
through the period.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
Moderate onshore flow and 4-6 foot seas are expected today, along
with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of
the thunderstorm activity is expected to remain inland. However,
an isolated storm capable of producing locally higher winds and
seas is possible. By Friday into the weekend, rain chances and
seas decrease while light to moderate southeast winds remain. By
Sunday night or early Monday, a strong cold front is expected to
push offshore. Strong north winds are expected in its wake.
Current forecast show sustained winds of up to 25 knots with gusts
approaching 35 knots with 5-9 foot seas offshore on Monday and
Tuesday. This would easily put conditions into small craft
territory and very close to gale status. We cannot rule out gale
conditions, at least at times, on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 72 83 70 / 80 40 60 20
Houston (IAH) 84 73 85 71 / 70 30 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 75 81 74 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT this morning for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4250
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Although of no concern here locally in SE texas, models/ specifically ensemble guidance hint at a another disturbance overriding the cold air behind the front producing a minor winter storm or wintry mix out in west-west central texas around halloween, if youre plans take you out to that part of the state, just be aware, im expecting it to just be a cold rain here with temps in the 40’s
Current conditions here:
77° DP
87°F
Feels like 99°F
On October 26th.
77° DP
87°F
Feels like 99°F
On October 26th.
what can be expected up around Plano area with this halloween system? Daughter's up there. Would like to let her know what to expect... thanks
Radar is starting to fill in now. Already more than 1" of rain on the east side of town.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4250
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Getting soaked here!
Still awaiting first drops in League City. I'm starting to think we will largely miss out on this party.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4250
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
lol the 18z NAM has a 1055 mb arctic high, now thats insane to see
For your consideration/entertainment:
This band is moving much slower than what the models showed on TV last night. They showed things moving off to the east after rush hour and it’s still stuck a good way north and west of here.
86 degrees and 86% humidity. Blech.
Lol that’s nutsStratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 26, 2023 4:17 pm lol the 18z NAM has a 1055 mb arctic high, now thats insane to see
Tornado Warning
TXC201-339-473-262315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0014.231026T2259Z-231026T2315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 615 PM CDT.
* At 559 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Magnolia, or near Pinehurst, moving east at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Pinehurst, Magnolia, and Stagecoach around 605 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
&&
LAT...LON 3012 9586 3019 9584 3023 9564 3007 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 270DEG 23KT 3016 9581
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
$$
Adams
TXC201-339-473-262315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0014.231026T2259Z-231026T2315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 615 PM CDT.
* At 559 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Magnolia, or near Pinehurst, moving east at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Pinehurst, Magnolia, and Stagecoach around 605 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
&&
LAT...LON 3012 9586 3019 9584 3023 9564 3007 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 270DEG 23KT 3016 9581
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
$$
Adams
Good thing I watered the plants.. doesn’t look like anything will happen down here.
Coming down in the Woodlands.
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