October 2023
About 2:30 am here. Maybe 5:00 am in Houston, I'm guessing
I don't want to get my hopes up, but possibly an inch or two is possible.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1142
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
I used to live in Red Oak. I can attest to that.
Can confirm downpour in League City. My heart is so happy.
The line held pretty well.
The line held pretty well.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 051149
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
A line of strong showers and thunderstorms just ahead and along a
cold front is currently moving over the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods region and is expected to continue to progress southward
towards the Houston Metro area during the early morning hours.
Frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and wind gusts of 30-40 mph
can be expected with these storms. Some of the stronger
thunderstorms could produce slightly stronger wind gusts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be developing ahead of
this line, but are not expected to be as strong. The cold front is
moving a tad bit faster than what the Hi-Res models are currently
showing and could be reaching the Houston Metro area near sunrise
and moving over the coasts around 9 AM. Considering that showers
and thunderstorms will be developing ahead of the front early this
morning along with the stronger thunderstorm line moving close to
the peak morning commute hours over the Houston Metro area,
traffic delays are very possible. Make sure to stay tuned to the
latest weather and radar updates and monitor the traffic
conditions before you head out.
Once the front passes your region, winds will become north to
northeast and rain is to continue for a few more hours. Thus, expect
a little more rain accumulation to occur for most areas through at
least the early afternoon hours. Rain will gradually dissipate from
north to south during the afternoon and evening hours but skies will
likely remain mostly cloudy through the late evening hours for much
of the region.
Cooler drier air filtering in during the night hours will gift us
lows in the mid 60s to low 70s by early Friday morning. For Friday,
the highs will be in the low to mid 80s over the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods. For the rest of Southeast Texas, the highs will
generally be in the mid 80s. There might be a few showers developing
along the southernmost counties, but for areas north of it, mostly
partly cloudy skies are expected. The night will get a little cooler
with lows early Saturday morning dipping in the mid to upper 50s
along the Piney Woods region, the upper 50s to low 60s over areas
north of I-10, and the mid to upper 60s along and south of I-10. The
dewpoints will be dropping into the 50s and 40s, so it will finally
feel like a real fall morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Saturday morning looks set up to provide us with a lovely fall
weekend, as a 1028 surface high will be dropping into the Southern
Plains, forcing cooler, drier air into the region on offshore
winds. Aloft, at basically all levels we`ll be looking at being in
some stage of an exiting trough with ridging in the process of
building in. That stacked ridging gradually comes to prevail over
the region, but it also doesn`t look terribly strong, either. It
appears that everything kind of moderates as it settles in.
It does look a bit on the cool side (that feels weird
to type), as both the NAEFS and Euro ensemble low level means have
low level temps this weekend falling to around the 10th
percentile. This will be a very welcome development to those who
have suffered through an unusually hot summer on the Gulf
Coast...and a bit of a bummer to those who have been thriving in
it. Either way, this visit of unseasonably cooler temps looks to
be more or less confined to the weekend. Once we get back under
stacked ridging and the return of onshore flow by Tuesday, temps
look to make their way back upwards. However, rather than the
blowtorch conditions we`ve seen for most of the last several
months, life under this more moderate ridging mostly just means a
return to values around or a little bit above the seasonal
averages.
Way out at the end of the forecast period, attention turns to what
may be coming our way from the Eastern Pacific basin. We`ll be
keeping our eyes on both Tropical Storm Lidia and an area of
disturbed weather to its southeast. There is...wild disagreement
in the models about how this plays out, but in general it appears
that one or both of these systems get drawn into Mexico, and
shredded on its higher terrain. The remnant moisture and vorticity
gets ejected out over the Gulf, and may spin up a midweek low over
the Gulf. It looks incredibly disorganized, so while I`m not
necessarily concerned about them as tropical cyclones, they will
provide a good focus for some widespread rains. So far, guidance
is pretty consistent in keeping most/all of this rain out over the
Gulf. And, if anything, the trend has been a little more offshore.
So for now, I keep the highest PoPs over the waters and maybe with
a little bleed onto the immediate coast, keeping slight chances or
dry conditions farther inland.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Line of SH/TS currently passing through IAH have been reporting
heavy rainfall and gusts of 30-35 KTS (WS possible at some
locations). These storms will continue to move S, reaching the
coastal area at around 14-15Z. Areas of -RA/RA can be expected to
continue through early this evening. Expect N-NE winds of 5-10
KTS in the wake of the FROPA. A mix of MVFR to VFR cigs is
expected for much of the TAF period. There is a chance for lower
cigs overnight, but confidence is low at this time, thus went with
SCT015-SCT025 for this issuance. Mostly light N winds expected
overnight with -SHRA possible over GLS/LBX.
24
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
A line of storms along an incoming cold front is marching into
Southeast Texas late tonight. Expect this line to approach the
bays around sunrise, pushing into the Gulf waters through the
morning. Some of these storms could be strong, producing heavy
rain, reduced visibilites, strong wind gusts and locally higher
seas. Winds will shift to the north and northeast this afternoon
after the line clears. After this initial front, look for a
secondary push of cooler air to boost winds on Friday, and
particularly Friday night. Expect winds to increase to 20 to 30
knots along with building seas. Once this reinforcing shot of
cooler air is through, winds should slowly diminish through
Saturday night, becoming more moderate and northeasterly by Sunday
afternoon. Expect seas to peak early Saturday morning shortly
after the strongest winds, then gradually subside along with the
diminishing winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 68 84 59 / 90 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 83 70 85 64 / 90 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 74 86 70 / 80 40 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ350-355-
370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...24
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 051149
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
A line of strong showers and thunderstorms just ahead and along a
cold front is currently moving over the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods region and is expected to continue to progress southward
towards the Houston Metro area during the early morning hours.
Frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and wind gusts of 30-40 mph
can be expected with these storms. Some of the stronger
thunderstorms could produce slightly stronger wind gusts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be developing ahead of
this line, but are not expected to be as strong. The cold front is
moving a tad bit faster than what the Hi-Res models are currently
showing and could be reaching the Houston Metro area near sunrise
and moving over the coasts around 9 AM. Considering that showers
and thunderstorms will be developing ahead of the front early this
morning along with the stronger thunderstorm line moving close to
the peak morning commute hours over the Houston Metro area,
traffic delays are very possible. Make sure to stay tuned to the
latest weather and radar updates and monitor the traffic
conditions before you head out.
Once the front passes your region, winds will become north to
northeast and rain is to continue for a few more hours. Thus, expect
a little more rain accumulation to occur for most areas through at
least the early afternoon hours. Rain will gradually dissipate from
north to south during the afternoon and evening hours but skies will
likely remain mostly cloudy through the late evening hours for much
of the region.
Cooler drier air filtering in during the night hours will gift us
lows in the mid 60s to low 70s by early Friday morning. For Friday,
the highs will be in the low to mid 80s over the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods. For the rest of Southeast Texas, the highs will
generally be in the mid 80s. There might be a few showers developing
along the southernmost counties, but for areas north of it, mostly
partly cloudy skies are expected. The night will get a little cooler
with lows early Saturday morning dipping in the mid to upper 50s
along the Piney Woods region, the upper 50s to low 60s over areas
north of I-10, and the mid to upper 60s along and south of I-10. The
dewpoints will be dropping into the 50s and 40s, so it will finally
feel like a real fall morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Saturday morning looks set up to provide us with a lovely fall
weekend, as a 1028 surface high will be dropping into the Southern
Plains, forcing cooler, drier air into the region on offshore
winds. Aloft, at basically all levels we`ll be looking at being in
some stage of an exiting trough with ridging in the process of
building in. That stacked ridging gradually comes to prevail over
the region, but it also doesn`t look terribly strong, either. It
appears that everything kind of moderates as it settles in.
It does look a bit on the cool side (that feels weird
to type), as both the NAEFS and Euro ensemble low level means have
low level temps this weekend falling to around the 10th
percentile. This will be a very welcome development to those who
have suffered through an unusually hot summer on the Gulf
Coast...and a bit of a bummer to those who have been thriving in
it. Either way, this visit of unseasonably cooler temps looks to
be more or less confined to the weekend. Once we get back under
stacked ridging and the return of onshore flow by Tuesday, temps
look to make their way back upwards. However, rather than the
blowtorch conditions we`ve seen for most of the last several
months, life under this more moderate ridging mostly just means a
return to values around or a little bit above the seasonal
averages.
Way out at the end of the forecast period, attention turns to what
may be coming our way from the Eastern Pacific basin. We`ll be
keeping our eyes on both Tropical Storm Lidia and an area of
disturbed weather to its southeast. There is...wild disagreement
in the models about how this plays out, but in general it appears
that one or both of these systems get drawn into Mexico, and
shredded on its higher terrain. The remnant moisture and vorticity
gets ejected out over the Gulf, and may spin up a midweek low over
the Gulf. It looks incredibly disorganized, so while I`m not
necessarily concerned about them as tropical cyclones, they will
provide a good focus for some widespread rains. So far, guidance
is pretty consistent in keeping most/all of this rain out over the
Gulf. And, if anything, the trend has been a little more offshore.
So for now, I keep the highest PoPs over the waters and maybe with
a little bleed onto the immediate coast, keeping slight chances or
dry conditions farther inland.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Line of SH/TS currently passing through IAH have been reporting
heavy rainfall and gusts of 30-35 KTS (WS possible at some
locations). These storms will continue to move S, reaching the
coastal area at around 14-15Z. Areas of -RA/RA can be expected to
continue through early this evening. Expect N-NE winds of 5-10
KTS in the wake of the FROPA. A mix of MVFR to VFR cigs is
expected for much of the TAF period. There is a chance for lower
cigs overnight, but confidence is low at this time, thus went with
SCT015-SCT025 for this issuance. Mostly light N winds expected
overnight with -SHRA possible over GLS/LBX.
24
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
A line of storms along an incoming cold front is marching into
Southeast Texas late tonight. Expect this line to approach the
bays around sunrise, pushing into the Gulf waters through the
morning. Some of these storms could be strong, producing heavy
rain, reduced visibilites, strong wind gusts and locally higher
seas. Winds will shift to the north and northeast this afternoon
after the line clears. After this initial front, look for a
secondary push of cooler air to boost winds on Friday, and
particularly Friday night. Expect winds to increase to 20 to 30
knots along with building seas. Once this reinforcing shot of
cooler air is through, winds should slowly diminish through
Saturday night, becoming more moderate and northeasterly by Sunday
afternoon. Expect seas to peak early Saturday morning shortly
after the strongest winds, then gradually subside along with the
diminishing winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 68 84 59 / 90 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 83 70 85 64 / 90 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 74 86 70 / 80 40 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ350-355-
370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...24
MARINE...Luchs
Pretty mean area near El Campo.
2.34" and still raining on top of the inch I got yesterday.
I better not hear anyone complain about not getting rain today...
-
brazoriatx
- Posts: 329
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
- Contact:
When is the rain suppose to clear the coast?
In Bay City at my job, I’m not sure how much rain we’ve had this week, but I know it’s been a lot. Has to have been over 5”. It’s been frustrating seeing all the good rains at work and then come home to nothing
I have gotten 3 inches over the last three days of which i am totally grateful because i had 8 pallets of sod installed on Monday along with a sprinkler system installed on Saturday.
A mosquito explosion seems to be underway, now that there is some water for them to work with and they aren't getting baked.
Damn, we’re so close to a big rainfall event on the 12z GFS. Tons of rain out in the Gulf over the next couple weeks. Coastal areas might have the best chance. Significant drop off north of 59. I’m sure it’ll change though. Still far off in the 7-10 day range. Euro has been hinting at this too but it’s much further south out in the BOC stretching through the central Gulf and into FL.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 yeah we need that crossover low from the EPAC to trend north, then we could potentially hit the big jackpot, but i do see several fronts over the next few weeks which could bring more rain, el nino is finally establishing itself
I've received another inch with the MCS this morning.My total rainfall for the last few days is now at 4 inches.
Just emptied another 3.10" from the rain gauge, with about an inch of that from yesterday.
That brings my storm total to 4.44"
For once a system over-performed here relative to the WPC and model forecasts.
That brings my storm total to 4.44"
For once a system over-performed here relative to the WPC and model forecasts.
72 hour rainfall amounts. Parts of Brazoria county received up to 8 inches of rain! With a corridor along I-45/288 receiving the brunt of the rainfall with amounts of 2-5+ inches.
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TexasBreeze
- Posts: 942
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
Lots of good talk about the seasons future and pattern recognition in the Texas weather thread on S2K today! Definitely worth the read!