October 2023
The band to my east is just glowing bright gold and orange right now with big white puffy tops. Tropical skies are the most beautiful skies there are.
Hit the jackpot I guess. Came home and my 5 inch rain gauge was overflowing. Happy for meaningful rain but it washed out a ton of my fresh dirt.
Over an inch here now, and here comes more.
I noticed some of the dead looking trees are sprouting new leaves.
I noticed some of the dead looking trees are sprouting new leaves.
-
redneckweather
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
Over 3 inches here in Conroe. I had a river rolling through my backyard earlier this evening. What a beautiful sight coming off on hell of a summer.
Nice to see the rain for a change. 
Feels super tropical outside right now.
Maybe a tenth of an inch. At least the grass is kind of wet.
Word for the month of October is indeed FROPA:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Deep Gulf moisture, in combination with a weaker midlevel ridge,
strong low-level moisture transport, and diffluence aloft, has
allowed for the development of widespread thunderstorms today. The
highest rainfall totals have been concentrated to the south of the I-
10 corridor, where some locations have picked up 3-6" of total
rainfall. With most of these totals being spread out over the course
of the afternoon, along with very dry soil conditions, flooding has
been minimal thus far and most rainfall has likely been beneficial
for drought alleviation. As of 3 PM CDT, we continue to see the
onshore movement of thunderstorms, some of which will have the
potential to produce locally heavy rain. With today`s antecedent
rainfall, the potential for localized flash flooding can therefore
not be ruled out early this evening and a Flood Watch will remain in
effect through 10 PM CDT. For locations along and south of the I-10
corridor, it will still be important to remain weather aware and
consider local road conditions if traveling tonight.
A brief lull in rainfall is expected overnight, with a few isolated
showers perhaps remaining mostly offshore. By tomorrow morning,
however, the continued presence of deep Gulf moisture along with a
few embedded shortwaves in the midlevels will work to trigger
another round of showers and storms that should impact most of the
area during the day tomorrow. In general, have maintained rain
chances of around 60-80% for the area tomorrow morning and
afternoon, although the potential for heavy rain looks a bit more
limited based on recent high-resolution guidance. While we do not
anticipate the need to issue another Flood Watch, it will still be
important for those with travel plans to remain cognizant of local
weather conditions tomorrow.
In terms of temperatures, widespread rainfall has so far mitigated
values this afternoon for most locations east of I-45 or south of I-
10, with Houston so far only reporting a high of 80 this afternoon.
In locations with less rainfall coverage, highs have approached 90.
A similar story is expected tomorrow with high temperatures largely
dependent on the timing and extent of rainfall. We generally expect
most locations to reach the mid to upper 80s, but these values could
again be diminished as we saw today due to rainfall. Overnight lows
will remain in the mid to upper 70s as widespread cloud cover
remains in place.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
I know what y`all are here for...and yep the cold front still
remains on track for the end of the week. Welcome to FROPA Watch:
Escape from Summer! Going into Thursday morning, the cold front
will be located just to the north of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
area. The very tail end of the 12Z CAMs depicts that there could
be a MCS along the frontal boundary as it moves in, but it does
look like the line of storms will gradually fall apart as it moves
southward into Southeast Texas throughout the day. Currently, we
are just in a general thunderstorm area in the SPC Day 3 Outlook,
but some gusty winds would be possible along this line of storms
if it manages to hold together through our northern areas. PW
values will already be elevated out ahead of the front, but
becomes even more elevated up to 2.2"-2.4" along the boundary due
to moisture convergence. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible ahead of and along the frontal boundary which is why
there is a marginal (level 1 out of 4) to slight (level 2 out of
4) risk of excessive rainfall for Southeast Texas on Thursday. The
slight risk currently extends from Central Texas up to parts of
the Brazos Valley (Grimes/Waller/Madison Counties and westward).
Rainfall totals between Thursday and Friday will reach 1"-3" with
isolated totals of 4"+ being possible.
The front will be moving rather slowly which keeps rain chances
elevated going into Thursday night and parts of Friday as PW values
remain around or above the 90th percentile (~1.92"), especially
south of I-10. It still appears this front will stall out somewhere
along the coast on late Thursday afternoon, which also plays into
Southeast Texas being included in the excessive rainfall outlook. A
reinforcing front pushes through sometime on early Friday and ushers
in the cooler and drier air that we`ve been waiting for months to
feel. Speaking of temperatures, for Thursday it`s quite a mixed bag
that will depend entirely on the timing of the front. Some of the
global models bring the front through the Brazos Valley in the late
morning/early afternoon whereas high-resolution guidance suggests an
earlier timing. Either way, wherever the front pushes through
before the afternoon will see highs in the low to mid 80s and upper
80s to low 90s elsewhere. This is the beginning of a downward
temperature trend that takes us into the weekend...
Finally, we`ve made it to the good part of the forecast! PW values
will be on a sharp decline down to near the 25th percentile (~1.01")
throughout the day on Friday as drier air funnels in. Even drier air
pushes in over the weekend that takes us below the 10th percentile
(~0.77") along with dew points down into the low to mid 40s...maybe
even some upper 30s up north as strong surface high pressure builds
into the Central and Southern Plains. The end result is the coolest
temperatures we`ve seen in over 140 days...but who`s counting. High
temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will top out in the mid to upper
70s and low temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday night will be
in the 50s! It`ll certainly be a weekend you`ll want to go out and
enjoy the cool and crisp air...because temperatures begin to rise
again early next week as onshore flow and subtle ridging aloft
return. The good news is that even with the warming trend, I don`t
have any 90s in the grids through midweek...so that`s something! As
far as rain chances next week go, it`s a bit uncertain on how fast
PW values rise. The GFS is way more aggressive with moisture return
than the Euro or Canadian, so I`ve kept PoPs at a modest 20%
offshore beginning late Monday.
Batiste
&&
Word for the month of October is indeed FROPA:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Deep Gulf moisture, in combination with a weaker midlevel ridge,
strong low-level moisture transport, and diffluence aloft, has
allowed for the development of widespread thunderstorms today. The
highest rainfall totals have been concentrated to the south of the I-
10 corridor, where some locations have picked up 3-6" of total
rainfall. With most of these totals being spread out over the course
of the afternoon, along with very dry soil conditions, flooding has
been minimal thus far and most rainfall has likely been beneficial
for drought alleviation. As of 3 PM CDT, we continue to see the
onshore movement of thunderstorms, some of which will have the
potential to produce locally heavy rain. With today`s antecedent
rainfall, the potential for localized flash flooding can therefore
not be ruled out early this evening and a Flood Watch will remain in
effect through 10 PM CDT. For locations along and south of the I-10
corridor, it will still be important to remain weather aware and
consider local road conditions if traveling tonight.
A brief lull in rainfall is expected overnight, with a few isolated
showers perhaps remaining mostly offshore. By tomorrow morning,
however, the continued presence of deep Gulf moisture along with a
few embedded shortwaves in the midlevels will work to trigger
another round of showers and storms that should impact most of the
area during the day tomorrow. In general, have maintained rain
chances of around 60-80% for the area tomorrow morning and
afternoon, although the potential for heavy rain looks a bit more
limited based on recent high-resolution guidance. While we do not
anticipate the need to issue another Flood Watch, it will still be
important for those with travel plans to remain cognizant of local
weather conditions tomorrow.
In terms of temperatures, widespread rainfall has so far mitigated
values this afternoon for most locations east of I-45 or south of I-
10, with Houston so far only reporting a high of 80 this afternoon.
In locations with less rainfall coverage, highs have approached 90.
A similar story is expected tomorrow with high temperatures largely
dependent on the timing and extent of rainfall. We generally expect
most locations to reach the mid to upper 80s, but these values could
again be diminished as we saw today due to rainfall. Overnight lows
will remain in the mid to upper 70s as widespread cloud cover
remains in place.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
I know what y`all are here for...and yep the cold front still
remains on track for the end of the week. Welcome to FROPA Watch:
Escape from Summer! Going into Thursday morning, the cold front
will be located just to the north of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
area. The very tail end of the 12Z CAMs depicts that there could
be a MCS along the frontal boundary as it moves in, but it does
look like the line of storms will gradually fall apart as it moves
southward into Southeast Texas throughout the day. Currently, we
are just in a general thunderstorm area in the SPC Day 3 Outlook,
but some gusty winds would be possible along this line of storms
if it manages to hold together through our northern areas. PW
values will already be elevated out ahead of the front, but
becomes even more elevated up to 2.2"-2.4" along the boundary due
to moisture convergence. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible ahead of and along the frontal boundary which is why
there is a marginal (level 1 out of 4) to slight (level 2 out of
4) risk of excessive rainfall for Southeast Texas on Thursday. The
slight risk currently extends from Central Texas up to parts of
the Brazos Valley (Grimes/Waller/Madison Counties and westward).
Rainfall totals between Thursday and Friday will reach 1"-3" with
isolated totals of 4"+ being possible.
The front will be moving rather slowly which keeps rain chances
elevated going into Thursday night and parts of Friday as PW values
remain around or above the 90th percentile (~1.92"), especially
south of I-10. It still appears this front will stall out somewhere
along the coast on late Thursday afternoon, which also plays into
Southeast Texas being included in the excessive rainfall outlook. A
reinforcing front pushes through sometime on early Friday and ushers
in the cooler and drier air that we`ve been waiting for months to
feel. Speaking of temperatures, for Thursday it`s quite a mixed bag
that will depend entirely on the timing of the front. Some of the
global models bring the front through the Brazos Valley in the late
morning/early afternoon whereas high-resolution guidance suggests an
earlier timing. Either way, wherever the front pushes through
before the afternoon will see highs in the low to mid 80s and upper
80s to low 90s elsewhere. This is the beginning of a downward
temperature trend that takes us into the weekend...
Finally, we`ve made it to the good part of the forecast! PW values
will be on a sharp decline down to near the 25th percentile (~1.01")
throughout the day on Friday as drier air funnels in. Even drier air
pushes in over the weekend that takes us below the 10th percentile
(~0.77") along with dew points down into the low to mid 40s...maybe
even some upper 30s up north as strong surface high pressure builds
into the Central and Southern Plains. The end result is the coolest
temperatures we`ve seen in over 140 days...but who`s counting. High
temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will top out in the mid to upper
70s and low temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday night will be
in the 50s! It`ll certainly be a weekend you`ll want to go out and
enjoy the cool and crisp air...because temperatures begin to rise
again early next week as onshore flow and subtle ridging aloft
return. The good news is that even with the warming trend, I don`t
have any 90s in the grids through midweek...so that`s something! As
far as rain chances next week go, it`s a bit uncertain on how fast
PW values rise. The GFS is way more aggressive with moisture return
than the Euro or Canadian, so I`ve kept PoPs at a modest 20%
offshore beginning late Monday.
Batiste
&&
-
vci_guy2003
- Posts: 203
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:04 am
- Contact:
I'm going to San Antonio next weekend for the annular eclipse, and hearing chatter of moisture coming in from the Pacific. Is my solar viewing going to be a dicey proposition?
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 041144
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Another day of messy weather at the coast and on the Gulf today.
Indeed, hi-res guidance is indicating a potential for another day
with locally heavy rain falling on locations that saw heavy rain
yesterday. Due to this potential threat, a flood watch is in
effect until this evening. If you`re in a spot that saw heavy rain
yesterday, be alert to conditions today, as these locations will
be much more sensitive to heavy rainfall today.
Beyond the flood watch, we also see a continuing threat of
dangerous rip currents on Gulf-facing beaches, as well as a
lingering threat of minor coastal flooding as we come out of high
tide early this morning. A small craft advisory is in place on a
portion of the Gulf waters for this morning, while small craft
will still need to exercise caution on the rest of the Gulf and on
Galveston Bay thanks to gusty winds and elevated seas.
All in all, not a great day to make your way to the Gulf. If you
have plans down there and can postpone to a better weather day,
that may be a good option. Otherwise, please keep alert to all of
the potential threats from wind, rain, and elevated seas today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Another cloudy and stormy day is on tap today for portions of
Southeast Texas with periods of showers and thunderstorms to be
expected through much of the day. The mid level high is to remain
situated over the Gulf waters while shortwaves push over our local
area and an upper level trough moves eastward across the Southern
Plains. Abundant low level moisture transported from the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to push in PWs of 2.0-2.3 inches over much of
the region, which could result in some areas receiving moderate to
heavy rainfall. The latest Hi-Res solutions have a swath of storms
lining up again from Brazoria/Matagorda region northward into
Western Harris and Montgomery this morning into the mid afternoon
hours. Given the amount of rainfall received yesterday around this
same area, it was decided to issue a Flood Watch for Brazoria, Fort
Bend, Matagorda, Wharton, and inland Galveston counties from 7 AM
through 7 PM today. Modifications to the Flood Watch could occur
later this morning, so stay tuned on the latest updates.
We will have a bit of a break from the storms during the evening and
early night hours, however, a few more rounds of showers and
thunderstorms starting around midnight and continuing into Thursday
are expected as a cold front pushes across Southeast Texas. Thus,
the risk for minor flooding and ponding of water in low-lying and
poor drainage areas could continue. WPC has placed a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall for much of Southeast Texas from 7 AM today
through 7 AM Thursday.
The high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s, with
some spots possibly reaching 90 degrees. The lows tonight into early
Thursday morning will once again be in the low to mid 70s for much
of the inland portions and in the upper 70s to low 80s along the
immediate coast and Barrier Islands. Temperatures finally will begin
to cool on Thursday...woohoo! There will be a bit of a temperature
gradient with the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region having highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s while areas south of I-10 could still
have highs in the upper 80s. It will ultimately depend on how quick
the front moves through and the coverage of clouds and rain.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
The forecast from Friday is instantly challenged by the potential
influence of mesoscale factors on Thursday. A strong line of
thunderstorms developing on the approaching front could
dramatically change the anticipated timing of that front passing
through the area, putting us in a situation where we could be
looking at anything from a somewhat rainy situation waiting for a
reinforcing front to move in, to having seen everything scoured
out by a more vigorous change forced by strong thunderstorms.
So, in this case, I go with a conservative, albeit somewhat
unsatisfying choice: I take something pretty much in line with the
consensus of guidance. Which may not end up verifying all that
well depending on how today and Thursday play out...but without a
ton of confidence in that, it`s hard to say much with confidence
for Friday. In collaboration with neighboring offices, I did
choose to lean a little more towards a "cleaner" Friday, pulling
rain chances A little below NBM, while still allowing for a slight
chance/chance of lingering showers or an isolated storm, mainly
Friday morning.
By evening, the action should be offshore, setting us up for
relatively fair weather into early next week. For those who are
fans of fall weather, this weekend should be it. Friday night and
Saturday look a bit breezy as a decently strong surface high plops
into the Great Plains, tightening up the pressure gradient. But
strong winds look to mainly be a marine concern (more on that
below) while winds over land look to be a bit more muted.
Despite a partly cloudy sky allowing ample sun through, we`ll see
decent enough cold advection and a low enough October sun angle
that temperatures will be below average - a rare occurrence these
past several months! Expect highs to be held below 80 degrees for
most of the area Saturday and Sunday, and perhaps some of the
cooler spots on Monday, though we`ll start to see most of the area
have highs drift to around or just above 80 by then. A surge of
cooler, drier air will also provide delightfully cool weekend
nights. Up around Madison and Houston County, both Sunday and
Monday morning may see temps slip below 50 degrees for a brief bit
in the pre-dawn hours! Most of the area, though, should still see
lows in the 50s, and even into the lower half of the 60s right on
the Gulf Coast.
While a nice change of pace, this is also just a brief visit from
cooler, drier conditions. Expect onshore flow to return sometime
on Monday, which will bring warmer, more humid Gulf air back into
the picture pretty quickly. Look for temperatures to be back
around seasonal averages (or warmer) from Monday night onward, and
we may even manage some isolated rains at the coast again Tuesday
afternoon. There may be more to say about higher rain chances from
a weak Gulf low for the middle of next week, but fortunately for
me, that lies just beyond the scope of this forecast discussion.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Mix of MVFR to VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period,
although, there may be brief periods of IFR vis/cigs at times. A
few rounds of SH/TS expected through this evening and some strong
storms will be capable of producing +SHRA, lightning, and strong
VRB winds with gusts. SE winds at around 10 KTS with gusts up to
around 20 KTS for today, relaxing to around 5 KTS in the evening.
A lull in wx activity is anticipated from around 01-05Z. After
06Z, SH/TS will begin to develop over the northern portions of SE
TX and gradually expand southward as the night and early morning
progresses. A cold front will push through the region on Thu
keeping our chance for SH/TS for much of the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Another messy day on the waters and coastal areas today with
strong onshore winds this morning moderating later in the day,
elevated seas and tides, and periods of showers and thunderstorms.
A quick summary of threats for the day: a flood watch is in effect
for portions of the coast today, mainly for those who saw heavy
rain yesterday. Though not a direct marine concern, it could be of
importance to anyone headed to the coast from inland. Dangerous
rip currents remain a threat at Gulf-facing beaches, and are
likely to remain so until the persistent onshore fetch is changed.
A coastal flood statement is also in place this morning as we come
down from an abnormally high tide cycle. Though future high tides
do look to be lower, they will still be fairly elevated due to the
onshore winds and a high baseline from astronomical tides.
This general setup can be expected for a portion of tomorrow as
well. A cold front is forecast to push off the coast Thursday, and
is expected to be followed by moderate to strong offshore winds
Friday night as cooler air moves over the warmer water. Advisory-
level winds are very likely Friday night, and some gusts may even
reach to around gale force. A gale itself, though unlikely, cannot
yet be ruled out.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
A flood watch is in effect today for Matagorda, Wharton, Brazoria, Fort
Bend, and mainland portions of Galveston counties due to the
potential for training, locally heavy rain moving south to north
from the Gulf of Mexico. The highest threat will exist in
locations that saw heavy rain yesterday, as they will be much more
sensitive to any further rain today. Elsewhere in the area,
including farther inland, lighter antecedent rainfall will make
rain from storms today more manageable. Still, be cautious around
low-lying and/or poor drainage locations as intense rain rates
from a strong storm can overwhelm their drainage abilities and
result in localized flooding.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 72 81 69 / 70 70 90 30
Houston (IAH) 88 74 86 72 / 70 30 80 40
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 88 75 / 60 20 40 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ226-227-236>238-336>338.
High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ335-350-370.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ355-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...24
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 041144
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Another day of messy weather at the coast and on the Gulf today.
Indeed, hi-res guidance is indicating a potential for another day
with locally heavy rain falling on locations that saw heavy rain
yesterday. Due to this potential threat, a flood watch is in
effect until this evening. If you`re in a spot that saw heavy rain
yesterday, be alert to conditions today, as these locations will
be much more sensitive to heavy rainfall today.
Beyond the flood watch, we also see a continuing threat of
dangerous rip currents on Gulf-facing beaches, as well as a
lingering threat of minor coastal flooding as we come out of high
tide early this morning. A small craft advisory is in place on a
portion of the Gulf waters for this morning, while small craft
will still need to exercise caution on the rest of the Gulf and on
Galveston Bay thanks to gusty winds and elevated seas.
All in all, not a great day to make your way to the Gulf. If you
have plans down there and can postpone to a better weather day,
that may be a good option. Otherwise, please keep alert to all of
the potential threats from wind, rain, and elevated seas today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Another cloudy and stormy day is on tap today for portions of
Southeast Texas with periods of showers and thunderstorms to be
expected through much of the day. The mid level high is to remain
situated over the Gulf waters while shortwaves push over our local
area and an upper level trough moves eastward across the Southern
Plains. Abundant low level moisture transported from the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to push in PWs of 2.0-2.3 inches over much of
the region, which could result in some areas receiving moderate to
heavy rainfall. The latest Hi-Res solutions have a swath of storms
lining up again from Brazoria/Matagorda region northward into
Western Harris and Montgomery this morning into the mid afternoon
hours. Given the amount of rainfall received yesterday around this
same area, it was decided to issue a Flood Watch for Brazoria, Fort
Bend, Matagorda, Wharton, and inland Galveston counties from 7 AM
through 7 PM today. Modifications to the Flood Watch could occur
later this morning, so stay tuned on the latest updates.
We will have a bit of a break from the storms during the evening and
early night hours, however, a few more rounds of showers and
thunderstorms starting around midnight and continuing into Thursday
are expected as a cold front pushes across Southeast Texas. Thus,
the risk for minor flooding and ponding of water in low-lying and
poor drainage areas could continue. WPC has placed a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall for much of Southeast Texas from 7 AM today
through 7 AM Thursday.
The high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s, with
some spots possibly reaching 90 degrees. The lows tonight into early
Thursday morning will once again be in the low to mid 70s for much
of the inland portions and in the upper 70s to low 80s along the
immediate coast and Barrier Islands. Temperatures finally will begin
to cool on Thursday...woohoo! There will be a bit of a temperature
gradient with the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region having highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s while areas south of I-10 could still
have highs in the upper 80s. It will ultimately depend on how quick
the front moves through and the coverage of clouds and rain.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
The forecast from Friday is instantly challenged by the potential
influence of mesoscale factors on Thursday. A strong line of
thunderstorms developing on the approaching front could
dramatically change the anticipated timing of that front passing
through the area, putting us in a situation where we could be
looking at anything from a somewhat rainy situation waiting for a
reinforcing front to move in, to having seen everything scoured
out by a more vigorous change forced by strong thunderstorms.
So, in this case, I go with a conservative, albeit somewhat
unsatisfying choice: I take something pretty much in line with the
consensus of guidance. Which may not end up verifying all that
well depending on how today and Thursday play out...but without a
ton of confidence in that, it`s hard to say much with confidence
for Friday. In collaboration with neighboring offices, I did
choose to lean a little more towards a "cleaner" Friday, pulling
rain chances A little below NBM, while still allowing for a slight
chance/chance of lingering showers or an isolated storm, mainly
Friday morning.
By evening, the action should be offshore, setting us up for
relatively fair weather into early next week. For those who are
fans of fall weather, this weekend should be it. Friday night and
Saturday look a bit breezy as a decently strong surface high plops
into the Great Plains, tightening up the pressure gradient. But
strong winds look to mainly be a marine concern (more on that
below) while winds over land look to be a bit more muted.
Despite a partly cloudy sky allowing ample sun through, we`ll see
decent enough cold advection and a low enough October sun angle
that temperatures will be below average - a rare occurrence these
past several months! Expect highs to be held below 80 degrees for
most of the area Saturday and Sunday, and perhaps some of the
cooler spots on Monday, though we`ll start to see most of the area
have highs drift to around or just above 80 by then. A surge of
cooler, drier air will also provide delightfully cool weekend
nights. Up around Madison and Houston County, both Sunday and
Monday morning may see temps slip below 50 degrees for a brief bit
in the pre-dawn hours! Most of the area, though, should still see
lows in the 50s, and even into the lower half of the 60s right on
the Gulf Coast.
While a nice change of pace, this is also just a brief visit from
cooler, drier conditions. Expect onshore flow to return sometime
on Monday, which will bring warmer, more humid Gulf air back into
the picture pretty quickly. Look for temperatures to be back
around seasonal averages (or warmer) from Monday night onward, and
we may even manage some isolated rains at the coast again Tuesday
afternoon. There may be more to say about higher rain chances from
a weak Gulf low for the middle of next week, but fortunately for
me, that lies just beyond the scope of this forecast discussion.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Mix of MVFR to VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period,
although, there may be brief periods of IFR vis/cigs at times. A
few rounds of SH/TS expected through this evening and some strong
storms will be capable of producing +SHRA, lightning, and strong
VRB winds with gusts. SE winds at around 10 KTS with gusts up to
around 20 KTS for today, relaxing to around 5 KTS in the evening.
A lull in wx activity is anticipated from around 01-05Z. After
06Z, SH/TS will begin to develop over the northern portions of SE
TX and gradually expand southward as the night and early morning
progresses. A cold front will push through the region on Thu
keeping our chance for SH/TS for much of the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Another messy day on the waters and coastal areas today with
strong onshore winds this morning moderating later in the day,
elevated seas and tides, and periods of showers and thunderstorms.
A quick summary of threats for the day: a flood watch is in effect
for portions of the coast today, mainly for those who saw heavy
rain yesterday. Though not a direct marine concern, it could be of
importance to anyone headed to the coast from inland. Dangerous
rip currents remain a threat at Gulf-facing beaches, and are
likely to remain so until the persistent onshore fetch is changed.
A coastal flood statement is also in place this morning as we come
down from an abnormally high tide cycle. Though future high tides
do look to be lower, they will still be fairly elevated due to the
onshore winds and a high baseline from astronomical tides.
This general setup can be expected for a portion of tomorrow as
well. A cold front is forecast to push off the coast Thursday, and
is expected to be followed by moderate to strong offshore winds
Friday night as cooler air moves over the warmer water. Advisory-
level winds are very likely Friday night, and some gusts may even
reach to around gale force. A gale itself, though unlikely, cannot
yet be ruled out.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
A flood watch is in effect today for Matagorda, Wharton, Brazoria, Fort
Bend, and mainland portions of Galveston counties due to the
potential for training, locally heavy rain moving south to north
from the Gulf of Mexico. The highest threat will exist in
locations that saw heavy rain yesterday, as they will be much more
sensitive to any further rain today. Elsewhere in the area,
including farther inland, lighter antecedent rainfall will make
rain from storms today more manageable. Still, be cautious around
low-lying and/or poor drainage locations as intense rain rates
from a strong storm can overwhelm their drainage abilities and
result in localized flooding.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 72 81 69 / 70 70 90 30
Houston (IAH) 88 74 86 72 / 70 30 80 40
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 88 75 / 60 20 40 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ226-227-236>238-336>338.
High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ335-350-370.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ355-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...24
MARINE...Luchs
Just emptied 1.34” from yesterday/overnight. Not a bad start to October.
Big totals in spots yesterday. Might be a repeat today in already waterlogged areas.
Update from Jeff around 6am:
Flood Watch in effect until 700pm this evening for: Fort Bend, Brazoria, Wharton, and Matagorda Counties.
Several locations saw more rainfall yesterday than in the last 2-3 months with a swath of 2-4 inches of rainfall from Galveston and Brazoria Counties northward across central Harris into Montgomery County. Plume of tropical moisture remains aimed at the area today with showers and thunderstorms already ongoing from the coast northward mainly west of I-45. High resolution guidance which did a decent job yesterday, shows the most concentrated rainfall today in a south to north band from Brazoria and Matagorda Counties northward across Fort Bend into western Harris and Waller Counties. As noted yesterday, rainfall within this area may average 1-3 inches with isolated higher amounts, but this corridor today is a bit further west of where the heaviest rains fell yesterday. Overall grounds are still dry over the area and should be able to handle much of the rainfall with the exception being over any urban areas where intensities may exceed local drainage capabilities.
A break late this afternoon and evening…then it is likely a line of thunderstorms will be quickly approaching the area either early Thursday morning or during the day. Will side with the faster guidance and bring the line into the area Thursday morning, possibly before sunrise as a low level cold pool helps to accelerate things southward. Could be a low end damaging wind threat with this line and again heavy rainfall…but things look to advance fairly quickly toward and off the coast.
Initial weak front will move toward the coast Thursday evening, but much stronger secondary front will arrive across the area on Friday and blast off the coast with gusty northerly winds (especially coast and offshore) and significantly cooler temperatures and low humidity. Guidance has continued to trend cool with temperatures this weekend with widespread lows in the 50’s (upper 40’s up north in the Huntsville to Lake Livingston area) and mid 60’s along the coast. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid 70’s for all areas. This will be our first real taste of cooler fall weather after a brutal summer of heat.
Next Week:
All eyes next week will be on the eastern Pacific and western MX where a tropical system is expected to develop and potentially get pulled northeast into MX and TX. GFS and CMC are fairly aggressive in this idea with a hurricane landfall along the western MX coast early next week and then track of the upper level energy into coastal Texas by mid week which forms surface low pressure near the TX coast or over the Gulf waters. ECMWF keeps any system far to our south over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Will need to watch closely how tropical developments occur over the eastern Pacific this weekend as our forecast for the middle of next week will be strongly dependent on how far north and strong any tropical system is.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
Flood Watch in effect until 700pm this evening for: Fort Bend, Brazoria, Wharton, and Matagorda Counties.
Several locations saw more rainfall yesterday than in the last 2-3 months with a swath of 2-4 inches of rainfall from Galveston and Brazoria Counties northward across central Harris into Montgomery County. Plume of tropical moisture remains aimed at the area today with showers and thunderstorms already ongoing from the coast northward mainly west of I-45. High resolution guidance which did a decent job yesterday, shows the most concentrated rainfall today in a south to north band from Brazoria and Matagorda Counties northward across Fort Bend into western Harris and Waller Counties. As noted yesterday, rainfall within this area may average 1-3 inches with isolated higher amounts, but this corridor today is a bit further west of where the heaviest rains fell yesterday. Overall grounds are still dry over the area and should be able to handle much of the rainfall with the exception being over any urban areas where intensities may exceed local drainage capabilities.
A break late this afternoon and evening…then it is likely a line of thunderstorms will be quickly approaching the area either early Thursday morning or during the day. Will side with the faster guidance and bring the line into the area Thursday morning, possibly before sunrise as a low level cold pool helps to accelerate things southward. Could be a low end damaging wind threat with this line and again heavy rainfall…but things look to advance fairly quickly toward and off the coast.
Initial weak front will move toward the coast Thursday evening, but much stronger secondary front will arrive across the area on Friday and blast off the coast with gusty northerly winds (especially coast and offshore) and significantly cooler temperatures and low humidity. Guidance has continued to trend cool with temperatures this weekend with widespread lows in the 50’s (upper 40’s up north in the Huntsville to Lake Livingston area) and mid 60’s along the coast. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid 70’s for all areas. This will be our first real taste of cooler fall weather after a brutal summer of heat.
Next Week:
All eyes next week will be on the eastern Pacific and western MX where a tropical system is expected to develop and potentially get pulled northeast into MX and TX. GFS and CMC are fairly aggressive in this idea with a hurricane landfall along the western MX coast early next week and then track of the upper level energy into coastal Texas by mid week which forms surface low pressure near the TX coast or over the Gulf waters. ECMWF keeps any system far to our south over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Will need to watch closely how tropical developments occur over the eastern Pacific this weekend as our forecast for the middle of next week will be strongly dependent on how far north and strong any tropical system is.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
Off and on light rain at my place today, with the heaviest training band just to my east. Which is great. I got all I can handle already.
Getting a nice downpour now. I’d sent a radar snap but the image uploader is still broken.
I don’t waste my time with 3rd party sites because I can’t tell you how many of my old photo libraries and links eventually disappeared from Storm2K. So now I just upload them natively so they stay in the archives.
I don’t waste my time with 3rd party sites because I can’t tell you how many of my old photo libraries and links eventually disappeared from Storm2K. So now I just upload them natively so they stay in the archives.
Nice!
I've continued our Jack & the Beanstalk program and the trees in our yard are now making a jailbreak in growth. The backyard grass, not so much. However, St. Augustine grows back fast if you don't cut it too short: 2.75 inches. A lot of Ags cut St. Augustine too short as if it were Tifway - I never get that.
The front is in good shape - high nitrogen fertilizer with 6% iron kept us in the game through the brutal summer.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Wed Oct 04, 2023 11:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
No rain here yet, but man that 52°F low Saturday night on the NWS prog. is looking pretty sweet.
I'm glad I called the overperformance on the FROPA. You could see the kelvin wave buckle.
I'm glad I called the overperformance on the FROPA. You could see the kelvin wave buckle.
One should never ever scalp St. Augustine unless they want a weed infestation. One of the biggest myths in the world of landscaping. St. Augustine is meant to be tall, lush and thick.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 11:47 amNice!
I've continued our Jack & the Beanstalk program and the trees in our yard are now making a jailbreak in growth. The backyard grass, not so much. However, St. Augustine grows back fast if you don't cut it too short: 2.75 inches. A lot of Ags cut St. Augustine too short as if it were Tifway - I never get that.
The front is in good shape - high nitrogen fertilizer with 6% iron kept us in the game through the brutal summer.
More thunder to the south. That’s one long training band setting up. Would not be surprised to see Montgomery and/or Harris added to the “flood watch”…
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for... South Central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 300 PM CDT.
* At 1205 PM CDT, local fire department reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Fire Department reported.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Southeastern Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Surfside Beach, Richwood, Jones Creek and Oyster Creek.
This includes the following Low Water Crossings... State Highway 36 at the Brazos River .
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
&&
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
$$
Batiste
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for... South Central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 300 PM CDT.
* At 1205 PM CDT, local fire department reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Fire Department reported.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Southeastern Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Surfside Beach, Richwood, Jones Creek and Oyster Creek.
This includes the following Low Water Crossings... State Highway 36 at the Brazos River .
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
&&
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
$$
Batiste
Looks like I’m going to miss out on the rain again today. Still dry as a bone at my house.
And tomorrow doesn’t look all that promising for me either based on the HRRR. I might not get anything outta this. Hopefully something manages to make it here.
And tomorrow doesn’t look all that promising for me either based on the HRRR. I might not get anything outta this. Hopefully something manages to make it here.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Wed Oct 04, 2023 12:57 pm, edited 4 times in total.