October 2023
So what's the deal with this little spinning fella offshore?
Our NWS forecast has 54° and 55° lows this weekend. I guess we're going straight from chinch bug season to brown patch season with no break in between.
Will put down some fungicide tomorrow. I need to find some sulfur pellets to acidify the soil.Brown patch won't do anything if the chinch bugs already killed all your St Augustine.
Off and on rain so far this morning. Coast was getting hit pretty good though.
Steady rain in League City. Praise the Lord.
My rain chances on Thursday went from 80% down to 50% overnight
Absolutely dumping down 288 near Angleton. Never seen so many idiots driving 40 mph in the left lane with their hazards on.
Some people are going to get a deluge and a lot of others won’t get much of anything today. Gonna be one of those days.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4494
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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FXUS64 KHGX 031144
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
With the mid/upper ridge weakening over the region, the trajectory
of the deeper moisture (that has been focused on the Middle coast)
will be shifting north to cover much of SE TX today (and tomorrow).
However, while these rains are much needed, there is a chance that
some locations could see locally heavy rains...with totals upwards
of 3 to 5 inches possible in a short amount of time. Forecasted PW
values from 2.1" to 2.3" along with indications of training storms
do support the Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for Excessive Rain for areas
along and south of I-10...and Slight Risk (2 of 4) for a more con-
centrated area at the coast (Matagorda and Brazoria counties) from
WPC. While these are the locations currently pinged on by the near
term models, there could be some slight shifts with where the best
rains could occur. So, everyone in the southern half of the CWA is
encouraged to stay weather aware today.
These elevated rain chances are expected to persist into Weds with
much of the CWA likely getting some beneficial rains. Deep tropical
moisture (PWs~ 2.1") will be continuing to stream in from the Gulf,
but not seeing much by way of a focus for heavy rain at this time.
On the plus side, however, these increased rain chances and clouds
will help to lower daytime temperatures for today and perhaps even
moreso for tomorrow. Highs today will be in lower to mid 90s...and
the upper 80s near the coast. Highs for tomorrow will be mostly in
the upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
The forecast gets complicated right off the bat for the long term
portion of the period. Though there`s pretty strong consensus that
when Thursday morning opens that the entirety of the area will be
in a pre-frontal environment...precise timing for how that front
crosses Southeast Texas becomes a bit more of an open question.
At the speedy end, we`ve got the Canadian bringing the front in
pre-dawn hours and through the area by early afternoon. As much as
I admire our northern neighbors` excitement to bring a vigorous
front through, no doubt fueled by a decent cold pool...I`m going
to discount that. While the models have been getting more
aggressive with the cooler air and it is now October...I`ll
believe it when I see it.
Instead, we`ll go with something closer to a broad consensus of
the guidance, bringing the front into our northern areas around
mid-day. It should make its way towards the coast through the
afternoon and early evening, slowing down as it does so. This
initial front probably stalls out somewhere near the coastline,
and we have to wait for a reinforcing front to push through on
Friday to really open us some stronger, northeasterly offshore
winds wrapping around a surface high dropping into the Great
Plains.
What are the main implications of this? Well, I know we all want
to talk about temps with our first real, honest-to-goodness cold
front of the fall. And we`ll get to that, but first...yeah, we`re
gonna go from incessantly talking about drought all summer to
having to discuss flooding potential. Ahead of this front, we can
expect solid pooling of moisture. Precipitable water values are
around/above the 90th percentile in both the NAEFS and Euro
ensemble means. Leading up to the front, the ensembles are also
showing low percentile U winds and high percentile V winds. For
y`all normal people who don`t geek out about vector wind
climatology, that`s a solid sign that we are getting abnormally
strong onshore flow, bolstering the confidence in getting those
high PWAT values. Toss in a boundary that will provide a focus for
low level convergence and may struggle to clear the coast, and
suddenly we`re on the lookout for high rain rate storms and maybe
some training of heavy rainfall.
Now, before we get too carried away here, high PWAT does not
necessarily mean heavy rain; it does mean a more favorable
background environment for it. We still need to put everything
else together to support the development of storms to make that
heavy rain. One thing that stands out to me - especially in the
Euro, but also to some extent in the GFS - is how the upper jet
structure really falls apart as the front makes its way into the
area. It doesn`t really recover until a northern stream trough
rotates through; but by this time, the reinforcing front is
pushing through and moisture is being scoured out rapidly.
Ultimately, the large majority of the area gets painted with a
marginal risk for excessive rain from WPC in their new Day 3
outlook, which is pretty reasonable. There`s definitely reason for
some concern for heavy rain, which may be enhanced depending on
how short term rainfall pans out. But also, there are reasons to
believe that some of the higher end potential is not realized.
Okay, with that out of the way, let`s talk temps! Because so much
depends on precise timing of that front, there`s big bust
potential for Thursday`s highs. But, the NBM seems to have a
pretty good handle on it, with highs in the lower 80s north of the
Houston metro, and right around 90 degrees on the coastal plain.
This might be a bit on the cool side - things can get a bit torchy
if the front arrives late enough to let us get in most of a day of
heating. But, it probably makes a good hedge against the trend
towards a slightly faster frontal passage.
After that...might we be looking at our first chance to see high
temperatures below 80 degrees since...I don`t even want to think
about how long? Well, the NBM sure seems to go there this weekend
once the reinforcing front is through. This notable cooling holds
in the overnight as well as dewpoints crash. Way up north in parts
of Houston and Madison counties, I`ve got lows slipping below 50
degrees Sunday and Monday morning. Now, that`s a bit of cherry
picking, but forecast lows are in the mid-60s even right on the
Gulf shores with most of the forecast area falling into the 50s,
so everyone should get a nice taste of fall this weekend.
This is still an "early" fall front, however, so things do look
to turn around fairly quickly once onshore flow returns early next
week. Increasing dewpoints means low temps back into the 60s for
most and even back into the lower 70s on the Gulf. In the
afternoons, we can look to see temps push back over 80 degrees for
many as early as Monday, and likely area-wide by Tuesday.|
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Should be a busy day with messy TAFs for mainly the southern term-
inals as deeper moisture surges in from the Gulf. With the initial
band of SHRAs having already moved into the first tier of counties
along the coast, look for activity to expand further inland to the
I-10 corridor as the day progresses. Just north of this line, act-
ivity should be more scattered...to mostly isolated for sites over
our northern counties. But, closer to the coast, conditions appear
to be favorable for some locally heavy rain along with gusty winds
(up to 25kts) through the afternoon. Overall activity should be on
the decrease by this evening, but things are forecast to redevelop
late overnight/very early Weds morning. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
There will be a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf
waters. Expect coverage to become more widespread in the latter
part of the week due to an approaching cold front. This front is
expected to move off the coast Thursday night. Before the front
arrives, a long fetch of moderate east to southeast winds will
generate somewhat elevated seas and above normal tide levels.
Behind the front, moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds
can be expected. For much of the week, caution flags are likely
and advisories are possible. At the coast, strong rip currents can
be expected with the long fetch, pre-frontal winds. Additionally,
the tidal levels are currently expected to be high enough to
create some minor flooding in the lowest-lying areas along the
Gulf coast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 75 89 73 / 40 30 70 50
Houston (IAH) 93 76 89 75 / 60 40 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 87 80 / 70 40 50 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning
for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 031144
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
With the mid/upper ridge weakening over the region, the trajectory
of the deeper moisture (that has been focused on the Middle coast)
will be shifting north to cover much of SE TX today (and tomorrow).
However, while these rains are much needed, there is a chance that
some locations could see locally heavy rains...with totals upwards
of 3 to 5 inches possible in a short amount of time. Forecasted PW
values from 2.1" to 2.3" along with indications of training storms
do support the Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for Excessive Rain for areas
along and south of I-10...and Slight Risk (2 of 4) for a more con-
centrated area at the coast (Matagorda and Brazoria counties) from
WPC. While these are the locations currently pinged on by the near
term models, there could be some slight shifts with where the best
rains could occur. So, everyone in the southern half of the CWA is
encouraged to stay weather aware today.
These elevated rain chances are expected to persist into Weds with
much of the CWA likely getting some beneficial rains. Deep tropical
moisture (PWs~ 2.1") will be continuing to stream in from the Gulf,
but not seeing much by way of a focus for heavy rain at this time.
On the plus side, however, these increased rain chances and clouds
will help to lower daytime temperatures for today and perhaps even
moreso for tomorrow. Highs today will be in lower to mid 90s...and
the upper 80s near the coast. Highs for tomorrow will be mostly in
the upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
The forecast gets complicated right off the bat for the long term
portion of the period. Though there`s pretty strong consensus that
when Thursday morning opens that the entirety of the area will be
in a pre-frontal environment...precise timing for how that front
crosses Southeast Texas becomes a bit more of an open question.
At the speedy end, we`ve got the Canadian bringing the front in
pre-dawn hours and through the area by early afternoon. As much as
I admire our northern neighbors` excitement to bring a vigorous
front through, no doubt fueled by a decent cold pool...I`m going
to discount that. While the models have been getting more
aggressive with the cooler air and it is now October...I`ll
believe it when I see it.
Instead, we`ll go with something closer to a broad consensus of
the guidance, bringing the front into our northern areas around
mid-day. It should make its way towards the coast through the
afternoon and early evening, slowing down as it does so. This
initial front probably stalls out somewhere near the coastline,
and we have to wait for a reinforcing front to push through on
Friday to really open us some stronger, northeasterly offshore
winds wrapping around a surface high dropping into the Great
Plains.
What are the main implications of this? Well, I know we all want
to talk about temps with our first real, honest-to-goodness cold
front of the fall. And we`ll get to that, but first...yeah, we`re
gonna go from incessantly talking about drought all summer to
having to discuss flooding potential. Ahead of this front, we can
expect solid pooling of moisture. Precipitable water values are
around/above the 90th percentile in both the NAEFS and Euro
ensemble means. Leading up to the front, the ensembles are also
showing low percentile U winds and high percentile V winds. For
y`all normal people who don`t geek out about vector wind
climatology, that`s a solid sign that we are getting abnormally
strong onshore flow, bolstering the confidence in getting those
high PWAT values. Toss in a boundary that will provide a focus for
low level convergence and may struggle to clear the coast, and
suddenly we`re on the lookout for high rain rate storms and maybe
some training of heavy rainfall.
Now, before we get too carried away here, high PWAT does not
necessarily mean heavy rain; it does mean a more favorable
background environment for it. We still need to put everything
else together to support the development of storms to make that
heavy rain. One thing that stands out to me - especially in the
Euro, but also to some extent in the GFS - is how the upper jet
structure really falls apart as the front makes its way into the
area. It doesn`t really recover until a northern stream trough
rotates through; but by this time, the reinforcing front is
pushing through and moisture is being scoured out rapidly.
Ultimately, the large majority of the area gets painted with a
marginal risk for excessive rain from WPC in their new Day 3
outlook, which is pretty reasonable. There`s definitely reason for
some concern for heavy rain, which may be enhanced depending on
how short term rainfall pans out. But also, there are reasons to
believe that some of the higher end potential is not realized.
Okay, with that out of the way, let`s talk temps! Because so much
depends on precise timing of that front, there`s big bust
potential for Thursday`s highs. But, the NBM seems to have a
pretty good handle on it, with highs in the lower 80s north of the
Houston metro, and right around 90 degrees on the coastal plain.
This might be a bit on the cool side - things can get a bit torchy
if the front arrives late enough to let us get in most of a day of
heating. But, it probably makes a good hedge against the trend
towards a slightly faster frontal passage.
After that...might we be looking at our first chance to see high
temperatures below 80 degrees since...I don`t even want to think
about how long? Well, the NBM sure seems to go there this weekend
once the reinforcing front is through. This notable cooling holds
in the overnight as well as dewpoints crash. Way up north in parts
of Houston and Madison counties, I`ve got lows slipping below 50
degrees Sunday and Monday morning. Now, that`s a bit of cherry
picking, but forecast lows are in the mid-60s even right on the
Gulf shores with most of the forecast area falling into the 50s,
so everyone should get a nice taste of fall this weekend.
This is still an "early" fall front, however, so things do look
to turn around fairly quickly once onshore flow returns early next
week. Increasing dewpoints means low temps back into the 60s for
most and even back into the lower 70s on the Gulf. In the
afternoons, we can look to see temps push back over 80 degrees for
many as early as Monday, and likely area-wide by Tuesday.|
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Should be a busy day with messy TAFs for mainly the southern term-
inals as deeper moisture surges in from the Gulf. With the initial
band of SHRAs having already moved into the first tier of counties
along the coast, look for activity to expand further inland to the
I-10 corridor as the day progresses. Just north of this line, act-
ivity should be more scattered...to mostly isolated for sites over
our northern counties. But, closer to the coast, conditions appear
to be favorable for some locally heavy rain along with gusty winds
(up to 25kts) through the afternoon. Overall activity should be on
the decrease by this evening, but things are forecast to redevelop
late overnight/very early Weds morning. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
There will be a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf
waters. Expect coverage to become more widespread in the latter
part of the week due to an approaching cold front. This front is
expected to move off the coast Thursday night. Before the front
arrives, a long fetch of moderate east to southeast winds will
generate somewhat elevated seas and above normal tide levels.
Behind the front, moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds
can be expected. For much of the week, caution flags are likely
and advisories are possible. At the coast, strong rip currents can
be expected with the long fetch, pre-frontal winds. Additionally,
the tidal levels are currently expected to be high enough to
create some minor flooding in the lowest-lying areas along the
Gulf coast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 75 89 73 / 40 30 70 50
Houston (IAH) 93 76 89 75 / 60 40 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 87 80 / 70 40 50 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning
for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs
I'm under a flash flood watch i can't remember the last time i was under one.
The blob headed towards me brought a nice little shower but pretty much fell apart. There is a void over most of Harris County now.
Dumping at my house now. Glad to see rain, but hope it doesn't wash all the dirt away that I spent the last 4 days spreading. At least I have not overseeded the yard yet.
TMI, man. We don't need to know when you're going #2 in your own house.
Lol....kidding.
After months of seeing rain everywhere but my house, it is dumping and no signs of stopping soon. Under a flood watch through this evening.
Flash flood is generally downpour related from street flooding. Flood is creekbeds and rivers rising past banks.
Quick Google search is like magic 
https://www.weather.gov/mrx/flood_and_f ... 06%20hours.
Definitions of Flood and Flash Flood
Flood: An overflow of water onto normally dry land. The inundation of a normally dry area caused by rising water in an existing waterway, such as a river, stream, or drainage ditch. Ponding of water at or near the point where the rain fell. Flooding is a longer term event than flash flooding: it may last days or weeks.
Flash flood: A flood caused by heavy or excessive rainfall in a short period of time, generally less than 6 hours. Flash floods are usually characterized by raging torrents after heavy rains that rip through river beds, urban streets, or mountain canyons sweeping everything before them. They can occur within minutes or a few hours of excessive rainfall. They can also occur even if no rain has fallen, for instance after a levee or dam has failed, or after a sudden release of water by a debris or ice jam.
https://www.weather.gov/mrx/flood_and_f ... 06%20hours.
Definitions of Flood and Flash Flood
Flood: An overflow of water onto normally dry land. The inundation of a normally dry area caused by rising water in an existing waterway, such as a river, stream, or drainage ditch. Ponding of water at or near the point where the rain fell. Flooding is a longer term event than flash flooding: it may last days or weeks.
Flash flood: A flood caused by heavy or excessive rainfall in a short period of time, generally less than 6 hours. Flash floods are usually characterized by raging torrents after heavy rains that rip through river beds, urban streets, or mountain canyons sweeping everything before them. They can occur within minutes or a few hours of excessive rainfall. They can also occur even if no rain has fallen, for instance after a levee or dam has failed, or after a sudden release of water by a debris or ice jam.
Oy. My backyard is trash. But may be able to save the front. Brown patch doesn't really kill St. Aug. like chinch bugs - it just goes dormant faster.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 10:51 pmBrown patch won't do anything if the chinch bugs already killed all your St Augustine.