September 2023

[davidiowx]

What a crock of you know what. Pathetic!

[Cromagnum]

So much for that non-event. If all the forecasts are going to be this wrong, maybe people should start predicting that there is no chance in hell of any rain.

[weatherguy425]

Granted I don't live in the area any more, but I'm curious why some seem to have been under the impression they were guaranteed rain today? This seemed like a classic low quantity, higher intensity day? It also seemed to be messaged that way?

[jasons2k]

And now a warning to my west.

[weatherguy425]

So much for that non-event. If all the forecasts are going to be this wrong, maybe people should start predicting that there is no chance in hell of any rain.

Granted I don't live in the area any more, but I'm curious why some seem to have been under the impression they were guaranteed rain today? This seemed like a classic low quantity, higher intensity day? It also seemed to be messaged that way?

[jasons2k]

The way things have gone this summer, it’ll probably drop a crapload of debris on my freshly manicured lawn and only a fine mist just to spit on me.

As expected, this is exactly what happened here. My pool and yard are full of junk.
…And I got one whole raindrop to show for it.
Time to go cleanup and water before the HS game.

[Cromagnum]

Just read the evening update. In a nutshell: "there might be storms tonight, or there may not be. We can't tell from the models. It might rain Saturday or it might not, but if it does it's east of 45."

[user:null]

Granted I don't live in the area any more, but I'm curious why some seem to have been under the impression they were guaranteed rain today? This seemed like a classic low quantity, higher intensity day? It also seemed to be messaged that way?

Here's why:

[weatherguy425]

Granted I don't live in the area any more, but I'm curious why some seem to have been under the impression they were guaranteed rain today? This seemed like a classic low quantity, higher intensity day? It also seemed to be messaged that way?

Here's why:

To be honest, the graphic still does not show rain everywhere… in fact it implies isolated coverage. There was a legitimate risk of severe weather - just on an isolated basis. Damage was reported with today’s storms.

There could have, maybe, been more emphasis on the expected isolated nature. Then again, that’s a single tweet not an entire forecast on-air, extended digital forecasts, etc.

[suprdav2]

Cell coming straight for us here in Cypress straight up fell apart a mile north of my house. If that's not Lucy yanking the football, I don't know what is.

[user:null]

To be honest, the graphic still does not show rain everywhere… in fact it implies isolated coverage. There was a legitimate risk of severe weather - just on an isolated basis. Damage was reported with today’s storms.

There could have, maybe, been more emphasis on the expected isolated nature. Then again, that’s a single tweet not an entire forecast on-air, extended digital forecasts, etc.

The image in the tweet is the "Futurecast" used by ABC13 when they created their predictions yesterday. Now Space City Weather and NWS FWD were more elaborate/accurate, but still...

On the flip side, I'm glad that areas are seeing some decent activity, even if it missed several others. The activity so far is actually a lot more than what mesocales were trying to trend to early this morning (nothing at all west of the Louisiana state line). And the pattern only looks to get wetter from here.

[weatherguy425]

To be honest, the graphic still does not show rain everywhere… in fact it implies isolated coverage. There was a legitimate risk of severe weather - just on an isolated basis. Damage was reported with today’s storms.

There could have, maybe, been more emphasis on the expected isolated nature. Then again, that’s a single tweet not an entire forecast on-air, extended digital forecasts, etc.

The image in the tweet is the "Futurecast" used by ABC13 when they created their predictions yesterday. Now Space City Weather and NWS FWD were more elaborate/accurate, but still...

On the flip side, I'm glad that areas are seeing some decent activity, even if it missed several others. The activity so far is actually a lot more than what mesocales were trying to trend to early this morning (nothing at all west of the Louisiana state line). And the pattern only looks to get wetter from here.

But again, where did they say this was going to be an event where everyone would be hit by storms?

[DoctorMu]

Nothing here rainwise as usual, but did spot the thunderhead far to our SE. It had height.

High today was 109-110° Only the cicadas seem happy.

Rain chances seem to be waning...maybe the temp dip of close to 20°F by the end of the week will happen.

I'll believe it when it happens!

[Stratton20]

Everyone will see widespread rain again at some point, the weather pattern is undergoing changes for the better as we progress down the road, lets dial back on the negative outlooks

[davidiowx]

Granted I don't live in the area any more, but I'm curious why some seem to have been under the impression they were guaranteed rain today? This seemed like a classic low quantity, higher intensity day? It also seemed to be messaged that way?

My answer to this is:

Yes, you’re absolutely right in saying the forecast was isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models have been the same. There hasn’t been any forecast for widespread rains for several months.

Everyone I know that lives here is praying for rain. Heck some are going so far and I respond with “be careful what you ask for”. So when there’s a chance, and then the radar starts lighting up, it brings hope to everyone. The crazy thing is (ignore the drought maps), extreme SETX/SWLA has got some rain while everyone from Houston proper and S, N and W haven’t seen anything to help the drought.

Add in that it’s been hot as hell -for what seems like forever- and that just adds to the misery.

TL;DR - rain is hard to come by and has been the case the past couple summers. When meso’s show scattered coverage, folks get excited. So when the radar shows promise, the same general areas get showers while everyone else experiences the outflow and it’s just a tease.

[weatherguy425]

Granted I don't live in the area any more, but I'm curious why some seem to have been under the impression they were guaranteed rain today? This seemed like a classic low quantity, higher intensity day? It also seemed to be messaged that way?

My answer to this is:

Yes, you’re absolutely right in saying the forecast was isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models have been the same. There hasn’t been any forecast for widespread rains for several months.

Everyone I know that lives here is praying for rain. Heck some are going so far and I respond with “be careful what you ask for”. So when there’s a chance, and then the radar starts lighting up, it brings hope to everyone. The crazy thing is (ignore the drought maps), extreme SETX/SWLA has got some rain while everyone from Houston proper and S, N and W haven’t seen anything to help the drought.

Add in that it’s been hot as hell -for what seems like forever- and that just adds to the misery.

TL;DR - rain is hard to come by and has been the case the past couple summers. When meso’s show scattered coverage, folks get excited. So when the radar shows promise, the same general areas get showers while everyone else experiences the outflow and it’s just a tease.

I get what you’re saying, and society does tend to behave predictable during times of anomalous weather. But, other areas are experiencing just as severe or more severe of a drought than Houston proper - including our neighbors to the east. My critique was more of some of the other comments on this board. It’s not the same place it used to be, I guess.

[user:null]

My critique was more of some of the other comments on this board. It’s not the same place it used to be, I guess.

It's pretty obvious why:

Look back at the old-times when this board was founded (sometime in the 2000s decade): the climate patterns in SE TX were much milder/more agreeable in that period, hence more enjoyable for many. The 2000s decade actually had more consistent/heavier summer rainfall that limited 100°F frequencies ... and winters were much milder (which I will add to below).

Contrast that with these BS "wall-to-wall 100°F without a drop of rain for months" summers. All in brutal combination with "freezes down to teens". The heat this year when stations like Hobby destroyed their previous records: even the infamous 2011 still only had 18 days of 100°F temps in Hobby (similar to the amount of the 2022 summer) compared to the 30+ seen this year, and that was with a much worse drought across Texas persisting since spring. Meanwhile, for winters, loads of areas south of I-10 had not had a hard freeze from 1991 until Feb 2010, and hadn't seen teens for decades until 2021 (bountiful evidence of this on PalmTalk with the tropical plants that were common throughout central Houston/Bay Area/Galveston until 2021 damaged/killed them).

[DoctorMu]

I only use RadarScope. It’s awesome

Just got the App. It's superior to MyRadar. TWC is always 10 minutes behind, meaning the tornado is upon us before we can react.

[weatherguy425]

My critique was more of some of the other comments on this board. It’s not the same place it used to be, I guess.

It's pretty obvious why:

Look back at the old-times when this board was founded (sometime in the 2000s decade): the climate patterns in SE TX were much milder/more agreeable in that period, hence more enjoyable for many. The 2000s decade actually had more consistent/heavier summer rainfall that limited 100°F frequencies ... and winters were much milder (which I will add to below).

Contrast that with these BS "wall-to-wall 100°F without a drop of rain for months" summers. All in brutal combination with "freezes down to teens": esepecially considering that plenty of areas south of I-10 had never seen a hard freeze from 1991 until Feb 2010, and hadn't seen teens for decades until 2021.

Our history in southeast Texas is full of extremes - well before our time. There just seems to be less willingness to actually digest a weather forecast - just run with a personal interpretation and curse the forecaster when it’s wrong (… or not wrong).

[user:null]

Our history in southeast Texas is full of extremes - well before our time.

Meaningless tripe because even factoring in all those extremes, Houston just recorded its confirmed hottest summer on record (as per Matt Lanza on Space City Weather). That's on top of record highs obliterated along the Gulf Coast all the way into Mississippi: insane 109-110°F in the SWAMPS of Louisiana at Lafayette, New Iberia, etc.