September 2023
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Thankfully it’s very likely this week is the last we will see of the 100’s, im expecting the first fall front to move through our region sometime around tuesday night- wednesday, its coming, the heat ridge goes hasta la vista for good
The CPC still keeps us with above average temps for the next two weeks.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 9:35 pm Thankfully it’s very likely this week is the last we will see of the 100’s, im expecting the first fall front to move through our region sometime around tuesday night- wednesday, its coming, the heat ridge goes hasta la vista for good
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 they are a little too aggressive with their outlook at least in the 6-10 day outlook, ensembles and globals are trending cooler
HRRR looks exciting for Harris County tomorrow evening.
A little off topic. Hurricane Lee is now a Category 5 hurricane.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0251.shtml
The forecast models have 180 mph winds. 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0252.shtml
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0251.shtml
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373
WTNT33 KNHC 080251
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023
...LEE BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 52.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 52.4 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through early next week with a significant
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected
to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early
next week.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast overnight. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the
next few days, but Lee is expected to remain a major hurricane
through early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 928 mb
(27.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and
rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast
beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berghttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0252.shtml
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939
WTNT43 KNHC 080252
TCDAT3
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have found that Lee has
skyrocketed to category 5 strength. The aircraft measured peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 148 kt and trustworthy SFMR winds
slightly over 140 kt, and dropsonde data shows that the minimum
pressure has plummeted to 928 mb. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 140 kt, and Lee's maximum winds have increased
by an incredible 70 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane has a
clear 15 n mi-wide eye, with an infrared eye temperature as warm
as 21 C surrounded by convective cloud tops as cold as -76 C.
Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a
low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees
Celsius, and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology. There is some chance that moderate deep-layer
southwesterly shear could develop over the hurricane, but this
could be offset by strong upper-level divergence and thus have
little to no impact. To account for the recent rate of
intensification, the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and shows a peak intensity of 155 kt in
12 hours. Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak
intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air.
The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions
begin looking like a more distinct possibility. Only very gradual
weakening is shown after 12-24 hours, and it is likely that Lee's
intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period. Lee is
forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the
next 5 days.
For the next 5 days--through next Tuesday evening--Lee is expected
to maintain a steady west-northwestward track, passing well to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico. The hurricane is currently moving at about 12 kt, but
it is expected to slow down considerably through early next week as
the steering ridge to its north builds southwestward, effectively
blocking Lee's progress. The NHC track forecast remains of high
confidence through day 5, and again, no significant changes were
required from the previous forecast. Although there are some
indications that Lee might begin a northward turn around the middle
of next week, it is still way to soon to focus on specific model
scenarios that far out into the future.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Lee has become a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further
strengthening is forecast overnight. Lee's core is expected to move
well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week.
2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in
the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through
the weekend.
3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's
forecast during the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 17.3N 52.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.1W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.0W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 23.2N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 24.1N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
$$
Forecaster BergWasn’t it Patricia in the EPAC a few years ago that had 215mph winds?Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:23 pm A little off topic. Hurricane Lee is now a Category 5 hurricane.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0251.shtml
The forecast models have 180 mph winds.Code: Select all
373 WTNT33 KNHC 080251 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 ...LEE BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 52.4W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 52.4 West. Lee is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early next week with a significant decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early next week. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast overnight. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days, but Lee is expected to remain a major hurricane through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 928 mb (27.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0252.shtml
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939 WTNT43 KNHC 080252 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have found that Lee has skyrocketed to category 5 strength. The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 148 kt and trustworthy SFMR winds slightly over 140 kt, and dropsonde data shows that the minimum pressure has plummeted to 928 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt, and Lee's maximum winds have increased by an incredible 70 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane has a clear 15 n mi-wide eye, with an infrared eye temperature as warm as 21 C surrounded by convective cloud tops as cold as -76 C. Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees Celsius, and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement. In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below climatology. There is some chance that moderate deep-layer southwesterly shear could develop over the hurricane, but this could be offset by strong upper-level divergence and thus have little to no impact. To account for the recent rate of intensification, the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and shows a peak intensity of 155 kt in 12 hours. Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air. The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions begin looking like a more distinct possibility. Only very gradual weakening is shown after 12-24 hours, and it is likely that Lee's intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period. Lee is forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next 5 days. For the next 5 days--through next Tuesday evening--Lee is expected to maintain a steady west-northwestward track, passing well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The hurricane is currently moving at about 12 kt, but it is expected to slow down considerably through early next week as the steering ridge to its north builds southwestward, effectively blocking Lee's progress. The NHC track forecast remains of high confidence through day 5, and again, no significant changes were required from the previous forecast. Although there are some indications that Lee might begin a northward turn around the middle of next week, it is still way to soon to focus on specific model scenarios that far out into the future. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee has become a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further strengthening is forecast overnight. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the weekend. 3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 17.3N 52.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.1W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.0W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.2N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 24.1N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 12:09 amWasn’t it Patricia in the EPAC a few years ago that had 215mph winds?Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:23 pm A little off topic. Hurricane Lee is now a Category 5 hurricane.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0251.shtml
The forecast models have 180 mph winds.Code: Select all
373 WTNT33 KNHC 080251 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 ...LEE BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 52.4W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 52.4 West. Lee is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early next week with a significant decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early next week. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast overnight. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days, but Lee is expected to remain a major hurricane through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 928 mb (27.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0252.shtml
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939 WTNT43 KNHC 080252 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have found that Lee has skyrocketed to category 5 strength. The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 148 kt and trustworthy SFMR winds slightly over 140 kt, and dropsonde data shows that the minimum pressure has plummeted to 928 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt, and Lee's maximum winds have increased by an incredible 70 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane has a clear 15 n mi-wide eye, with an infrared eye temperature as warm as 21 C surrounded by convective cloud tops as cold as -76 C. Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees Celsius, and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement. In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below climatology. There is some chance that moderate deep-layer southwesterly shear could develop over the hurricane, but this could be offset by strong upper-level divergence and thus have little to no impact. To account for the recent rate of intensification, the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and shows a peak intensity of 155 kt in 12 hours. Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air. The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions begin looking like a more distinct possibility. Only very gradual weakening is shown after 12-24 hours, and it is likely that Lee's intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period. Lee is forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next 5 days. For the next 5 days--through next Tuesday evening--Lee is expected to maintain a steady west-northwestward track, passing well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The hurricane is currently moving at about 12 kt, but it is expected to slow down considerably through early next week as the steering ridge to its north builds southwestward, effectively blocking Lee's progress. The NHC track forecast remains of high confidence through day 5, and again, no significant changes were required from the previous forecast. Although there are some indications that Lee might begin a northward turn around the middle of next week, it is still way to soon to focus on specific model scenarios that far out into the future. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee has become a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further strengthening is forecast overnight. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the weekend. 3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 17.3N 52.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.1W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.0W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.2N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 24.1N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Yeah…pretty much…
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP20 ... tricia.pdf
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE...AND FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms producing both hail and damaging winds are possible
from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast today, and from
the Red River Valley and Arklatex southward across the Sabine
Valley. Other isolated strong storms are expected over Montana.
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain over NM today, with anticyclonic flow
aloft from CA into the northern Rockies and southeastward into the
lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a weak upper trough/low heights will
remain over much of the East, resulting in cool profiles aloft.
Various speed maxes will round the upper ridge, and possibly enhance
thunderstorm potential. A low amplitude feature will affect MT with
30-40 kt westerly winds at 500 mb. To the southeast, relatively
strong midlevel flow with around 50 kt will spread south out of the
Ozarks and across AR, LA and northern MS. Meanwhile, modest 35 kt
southwesterlies at 500 mb will remain over New England.
At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes
southward across the middle and lower MS Valley, with weak northerly
surface winds. A surface trough/wind shift will stretch from New
England to the FL Panhandle, with 70s F dewpoints common ahead of
it.
Farther west, low pressure will exist over northwest TX and
southwest OK with hot temperatures. Easterly winds over much of OK
and eastern TX will maintain a narrow moist plume, east of the hot
air and west of the surface ridge. A favorable area of instability
and shear may thus develop due to the aforementioned enhanced flow
aloft.
...Northeast and Mid Atlantic...
A substantial plume of low-level moisture will remain over the
region today, with models suggesting as much as 3000 J/kg MUCAPE
from southeast NY across MA, southern VT, NH and southwest ME.
Modest midlevel flow around 30 kt and front-parallel winds aloft
should result in a corridor of enhanced thunderstorm probabilities,
and water-loaded downdrafts may produce wind damage. In addition,
the cool profiles aloft will favor brief periods of hail in the
strongest storms.
Farther south, another concentrated area of storms is likely from
eastern WV across northern VA and into central MD, with storms
moving northeastward across an unstable air mass. Although shear
will be weak, forward-propagation is likely in the moist, uncapped
air mass, with strong to severe winds expected through early
evening.
...Southeast OK, Arklatex, eastern TX, LA...
Storms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into western AR this
morning, aided by weak theta-e advection at 850 mb with 25 kt
westerlies. Cooling aloft will gradually occur throughout the period
as a midlevel disturbance drops south out of MO. Some of this
activity could contain marginal hail as temperatures aloft will be
relatively cool with effective shear around 40 kt.
As heating occurs downstream into LA, a narrow zone of 2500-3000
J/kg MUCAPE may develop, with a thunderstorm revival possible as the
remnants of the early day activity proceeds southeastward. Damaging
winds appear most likely, and storms may favor westward propagation
as the low level lapse rates will be steeper to the west.
Farther west, isolated storms are also expected near peak heating
across the Red River Valley, and hot temperatures/deep mixing layers
as well as steep midlevel lapse rates may favor damaging downbursts
or even brief periods of marginal hail with the strongest storms.
...MT...
Destabilization will occur during the afternoon due to strong
heating, with mixed-layer CAPE around 500-1000 J/kg during the
afternoon. As a midlevel short-wave trough moves eastward across the
area, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected, over
central MT, with peak convective coverage from late afternoon
through mid evening. Given a belt of 30 to 40 kt mid-level
westerlies and inverted-v type profiles, a few strong/longer-lived
storms may produce locally damaging winds. Hail cannot be ruled out
given cool temperatures aloft and 50 kt flow above 500 mb.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 09/08/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0637Z (1:37AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE...AND FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms producing both hail and damaging winds are possible
from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast today, and from
the Red River Valley and Arklatex southward across the Sabine
Valley. Other isolated strong storms are expected over Montana.
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain over NM today, with anticyclonic flow
aloft from CA into the northern Rockies and southeastward into the
lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a weak upper trough/low heights will
remain over much of the East, resulting in cool profiles aloft.
Various speed maxes will round the upper ridge, and possibly enhance
thunderstorm potential. A low amplitude feature will affect MT with
30-40 kt westerly winds at 500 mb. To the southeast, relatively
strong midlevel flow with around 50 kt will spread south out of the
Ozarks and across AR, LA and northern MS. Meanwhile, modest 35 kt
southwesterlies at 500 mb will remain over New England.
At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes
southward across the middle and lower MS Valley, with weak northerly
surface winds. A surface trough/wind shift will stretch from New
England to the FL Panhandle, with 70s F dewpoints common ahead of
it.
Farther west, low pressure will exist over northwest TX and
southwest OK with hot temperatures. Easterly winds over much of OK
and eastern TX will maintain a narrow moist plume, east of the hot
air and west of the surface ridge. A favorable area of instability
and shear may thus develop due to the aforementioned enhanced flow
aloft.
...Northeast and Mid Atlantic...
A substantial plume of low-level moisture will remain over the
region today, with models suggesting as much as 3000 J/kg MUCAPE
from southeast NY across MA, southern VT, NH and southwest ME.
Modest midlevel flow around 30 kt and front-parallel winds aloft
should result in a corridor of enhanced thunderstorm probabilities,
and water-loaded downdrafts may produce wind damage. In addition,
the cool profiles aloft will favor brief periods of hail in the
strongest storms.
Farther south, another concentrated area of storms is likely from
eastern WV across northern VA and into central MD, with storms
moving northeastward across an unstable air mass. Although shear
will be weak, forward-propagation is likely in the moist, uncapped
air mass, with strong to severe winds expected through early
evening.
...Southeast OK, Arklatex, eastern TX, LA...
Storms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into western AR this
morning, aided by weak theta-e advection at 850 mb with 25 kt
westerlies. Cooling aloft will gradually occur throughout the period
as a midlevel disturbance drops south out of MO. Some of this
activity could contain marginal hail as temperatures aloft will be
relatively cool with effective shear around 40 kt.
As heating occurs downstream into LA, a narrow zone of 2500-3000
J/kg MUCAPE may develop, with a thunderstorm revival possible as the
remnants of the early day activity proceeds southeastward. Damaging
winds appear most likely, and storms may favor westward propagation
as the low level lapse rates will be steeper to the west.
Farther west, isolated storms are also expected near peak heating
across the Red River Valley, and hot temperatures/deep mixing layers
as well as steep midlevel lapse rates may favor damaging downbursts
or even brief periods of marginal hail with the strongest storms.
...MT...
Destabilization will occur during the afternoon due to strong
heating, with mixed-layer CAPE around 500-1000 J/kg during the
afternoon. As a midlevel short-wave trough moves eastward across the
area, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected, over
central MT, with peak convective coverage from late afternoon
through mid evening. Given a belt of 30 to 40 kt mid-level
westerlies and inverted-v type profiles, a few strong/longer-lived
storms may produce locally damaging winds. Hail cannot be ruled out
given cool temperatures aloft and 50 kt flow above 500 mb.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 09/08/2023
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The 9/8 00Z HRRR sounding for 7:00pm shows some elevated CAPE which may lead to some isolated severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and a few microbursts across the area if the cap can be broken during peak heating hours on Friday evening…
I feel like that's been the issue all summer. We have had the king of caps pressure cooking us for 3 months. What makes today any different suddenly?
As usual…
NWS had 50% tonight and 50% tomorrow.
This morning’s update: 30% tonight and 40% tomorrow.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Tired of getting teased over and over again.
NWS had 50% tonight and 50% tomorrow.
This morning’s update: 30% tonight and 40% tomorrow.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Tired of getting teased over and over again.
The same here Jason one forecaster will say 50% and after a shift change the forecaster for that shift will almost always change it and not for the better.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 081141
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Today, southeast Texas looks to remain on the peripheral of a mid to
upper level ridge currently situated over the Desert Southwest. A
deepening shortwave trough situated near the Great Lakes/Middle
Mississippi River Valley aims to halt the eastward progression of
this ridge, weakening the ridge`s influence later this weekend as
the trough transitions into a cutoff low over the SE CONUS. Before
that, 850mb temperatures will still range between 21-27C, with NAEFS
temperatures progged to exceed the 99th Climatological Percentile.
In short, it`ll still be especially hot today in SE Texas, with
highs upwards of 108 degrees and heat indices ranging from 109-114
degrees. This will warrant Excessive Heat Warnings/Heat Advisories
across the entire region.
The one wrinkle that complicates the aforementioned heat hazards
will be rain chances. Weak capping, PWATs in the range of 1.5-1.9
inches, and shortwave impulses rounding the eastern flank of the
upper level ridge seem sufficient for scattered to isolated storm
development, especially with further support from the aforementioned
trough axis to the northeast. The first of these impulses passes
through the ArkLaTex region during the afternoon, with high res
guidance placing it east of the region. Still, CAMs show storm
development occuring over the N/NE portions of SE Texas during the
late afternoon from the associate outflow/MCS. Timing will be key,
but most of the region will likely hit warning/advisory criteria
before these storms can provide much relief.
Another facet to these storms comes with the severe potential. Steep
3km lapse rates approaching 10 degC/km and MUCAPE in the range of
2500-3000 J/kg will provide ample instability for these storms to
tap into, despite the lackluster shear. Even as daytime heating
wanes, another shortwave impulse is progged to move across the
region during the evening/overnight hours. With this in mind, SPC
has placed locations across the Piney Woods area under a slight
(level 2/5) risk of severe weather for today. The primary threat
from these storms will be damaging wind, but hail cannot be
completely ruled out either.
Saturday looks to be less eventful by comparison. NAEFS 850mb
temperatures appear to be less potent, with highs generally progged
in the 90s to lower 100s. CAMs look less optimistic for storm
development, mainly given the lack of forcing features outside of a
weak boundary draped across portions of the ArkLaTex Region.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Periods of showers and thunderstorms along with lower temperatures
can be expected for much of this time period. The combination of a
flattening mid/upper level ridge, a weak stationary front, daytime
heating and a series of disturbances will bring increasing helpful
but not drought breaking rain chances across the area. Better/higher
chances on Sunday look to focus near and to the south of the I-10
corridor as some slightly drier air filters into the area from the
northeast. Monday through Monday night looks like it could be the
driest time period. For Tuesday through Thursday, a series of
shortwaves/disturbances are then set to move to the east and
southeast across the area resulting in more periods of showers and
thunderstorms.
Courtesy of the flattening/retreating ridge along with the return of
clouds and rains, area high temperatures throughout this forecast
period will stay below 100 degrees, and a few spots (especially up
north) could actually have highs in the 80s Wednesday and Thursday
in the wake of a cold front. The last time College Station had a
high temperature in the 80s was on June 5th.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Light southwesterly winds should become southeasterly this
afternoon. Scattered storms are expected to develop from north to
south during the late afternoon/early evening, with additional
showers and storms possible overnight. The strongest of these
storms could produce strong wind gusts.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Light to occasionally moderate winds and low seas will prevail through
tonight. Winds will typically be stronger at night in the Gulf waters
and during the afternoons and evenings in the bays. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible beginning late today and continuing into
the first half of next week. Winds and waves will be higher in and around
any storms and their associated boundaries.
42
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Hot conditions continue today with high temperatures ranging from
100-108 degrees inland and minimum relative humidity around 25-40%.
Storm chances increase during the late afternoon/evening hours,
mainly across the Piney Woods area. These storms will be capable of
producing strong winds and lightning. Rain chances continue through
the weekend, with decreasing temperatures and increasing humidity.
Abundance of dry fuels will continue to leave the region fire-prone.
Burn bans remain in place for all counties in Southeast Texas.
03
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Four of our five major climate sites (CLL, IAH, HOU and GLS) set new
record high temperatures and record high minimum temperatures
yesterday. More records are likely going to be set today (see today`s
records below).
CLL: Record high is 102 in 1902, record high min is 81 in 1914
IAH: Record high is 100 in 1907, record high min is 79 in 1949
HOU: Record high is 97 in 1999, record high min is 78 in 2016
GLS: Record high is 96 in 1995, record high min is 84 in 2010
PSX: Record high is 96 in 1951, record high min is 87 in 1985
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 107 78 102 75 / 20 30 40 30
Houston (IAH) 105 80 99 77 / 30 30 50 30
Galveston (GLS) 94 83 92 80 / 20 40 50 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-300.
Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-300.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-313-335>338-
436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...03
MARINE...42
FIRE WEATHER...03
CLIMATE...42
FXUS64 KHGX 081141
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Today, southeast Texas looks to remain on the peripheral of a mid to
upper level ridge currently situated over the Desert Southwest. A
deepening shortwave trough situated near the Great Lakes/Middle
Mississippi River Valley aims to halt the eastward progression of
this ridge, weakening the ridge`s influence later this weekend as
the trough transitions into a cutoff low over the SE CONUS. Before
that, 850mb temperatures will still range between 21-27C, with NAEFS
temperatures progged to exceed the 99th Climatological Percentile.
In short, it`ll still be especially hot today in SE Texas, with
highs upwards of 108 degrees and heat indices ranging from 109-114
degrees. This will warrant Excessive Heat Warnings/Heat Advisories
across the entire region.
The one wrinkle that complicates the aforementioned heat hazards
will be rain chances. Weak capping, PWATs in the range of 1.5-1.9
inches, and shortwave impulses rounding the eastern flank of the
upper level ridge seem sufficient for scattered to isolated storm
development, especially with further support from the aforementioned
trough axis to the northeast. The first of these impulses passes
through the ArkLaTex region during the afternoon, with high res
guidance placing it east of the region. Still, CAMs show storm
development occuring over the N/NE portions of SE Texas during the
late afternoon from the associate outflow/MCS. Timing will be key,
but most of the region will likely hit warning/advisory criteria
before these storms can provide much relief.
Another facet to these storms comes with the severe potential. Steep
3km lapse rates approaching 10 degC/km and MUCAPE in the range of
2500-3000 J/kg will provide ample instability for these storms to
tap into, despite the lackluster shear. Even as daytime heating
wanes, another shortwave impulse is progged to move across the
region during the evening/overnight hours. With this in mind, SPC
has placed locations across the Piney Woods area under a slight
(level 2/5) risk of severe weather for today. The primary threat
from these storms will be damaging wind, but hail cannot be
completely ruled out either.
Saturday looks to be less eventful by comparison. NAEFS 850mb
temperatures appear to be less potent, with highs generally progged
in the 90s to lower 100s. CAMs look less optimistic for storm
development, mainly given the lack of forcing features outside of a
weak boundary draped across portions of the ArkLaTex Region.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Periods of showers and thunderstorms along with lower temperatures
can be expected for much of this time period. The combination of a
flattening mid/upper level ridge, a weak stationary front, daytime
heating and a series of disturbances will bring increasing helpful
but not drought breaking rain chances across the area. Better/higher
chances on Sunday look to focus near and to the south of the I-10
corridor as some slightly drier air filters into the area from the
northeast. Monday through Monday night looks like it could be the
driest time period. For Tuesday through Thursday, a series of
shortwaves/disturbances are then set to move to the east and
southeast across the area resulting in more periods of showers and
thunderstorms.
Courtesy of the flattening/retreating ridge along with the return of
clouds and rains, area high temperatures throughout this forecast
period will stay below 100 degrees, and a few spots (especially up
north) could actually have highs in the 80s Wednesday and Thursday
in the wake of a cold front. The last time College Station had a
high temperature in the 80s was on June 5th.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Light southwesterly winds should become southeasterly this
afternoon. Scattered storms are expected to develop from north to
south during the late afternoon/early evening, with additional
showers and storms possible overnight. The strongest of these
storms could produce strong wind gusts.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Light to occasionally moderate winds and low seas will prevail through
tonight. Winds will typically be stronger at night in the Gulf waters
and during the afternoons and evenings in the bays. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible beginning late today and continuing into
the first half of next week. Winds and waves will be higher in and around
any storms and their associated boundaries.
42
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Hot conditions continue today with high temperatures ranging from
100-108 degrees inland and minimum relative humidity around 25-40%.
Storm chances increase during the late afternoon/evening hours,
mainly across the Piney Woods area. These storms will be capable of
producing strong winds and lightning. Rain chances continue through
the weekend, with decreasing temperatures and increasing humidity.
Abundance of dry fuels will continue to leave the region fire-prone.
Burn bans remain in place for all counties in Southeast Texas.
03
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Four of our five major climate sites (CLL, IAH, HOU and GLS) set new
record high temperatures and record high minimum temperatures
yesterday. More records are likely going to be set today (see today`s
records below).
CLL: Record high is 102 in 1902, record high min is 81 in 1914
IAH: Record high is 100 in 1907, record high min is 79 in 1949
HOU: Record high is 97 in 1999, record high min is 78 in 2016
GLS: Record high is 96 in 1995, record high min is 84 in 2010
PSX: Record high is 96 in 1951, record high min is 87 in 1985
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 107 78 102 75 / 20 30 40 30
Houston (IAH) 105 80 99 77 / 30 30 50 30
Galveston (GLS) 94 83 92 80 / 20 40 50 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-300.
Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-300.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-313-335>338-
436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...03
MARINE...42
FIRE WEATHER...03
CLIMATE...42
So perplexing. I thought starting tomorrow chances were supposed to be on the increase for the weekend into next week as the high drifts away and moisture pools ahead of the front.
Raises white flag again.
Raises white flag again.
Saturday looks to be less eventful by comparison. NAEFS 850mb temperatures appear to be less potent, with highs generally progged in the 90s to lower 100s. CAMs look less optimistic for storm development, mainly given the lack of forcing features outside of a weak boundary draped across portions of the ArkLaTex Region.
Fully expect today to hit the I45 and Hwy 105 walls, leaving the rest of us high and dry as usual.
20-40% chance of rain for the next week. Allegedly. I'm even skeptical of Saturday being our last 100°F day.
North Texas and east of I-45 may get some relief. That's about it.
North Texas and east of I-45 may get some relief. That's about it.
There's a back door front nearing Tyler. It will never make it here.
All these models are garbage, even the CAM mesocales. Look at what the latest models (even rapid-refresh HRRR) were showing regarding this late morning (10 and 11AM time frames). And compare that to the much more developed complex going quite strong right now in the Ark-La-Tex (now stretching down into Louisiana).
It's a total "now-cast" at this point (which may as well be to our favor).
The Shreveport radar and satellite loops show some interesting features. You can see gravity waves with the shortwave and it’s moving at a good clip. These are the types of systems that can have explosive storm development once the cap is busted by the superheated surface heat, resulting in strong downbursts.
Would not be surprised to see the SPC put up an MCD in the next couple of hours.
Would not be surprised to see the SPC put up an MCD in the next couple of hours.
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