September 2023

[DoctorMu]

Looks dubious for rain chances - hope we get lucky with the seabreeze, but the action will be mostly east of I-45..



The models and ensembles suggest we'll have to wait for the latter half of September for any significant rain.



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
643 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023

Latest radar imagery indicate two areas of radar returns...(1)
across our northern counties and (2) along the coast/Gulf waters.
The latter one is mainly driven by the seabreeze. Showers with a
few storms will continue to develop along/behind the seabreeze as
it moves further inland, if it overcomes the amount of drier air
to our west. The main forcing for the activity further north is
the influence of a sfc trough/upper lvl low located to our
northwest. Any showers and thunderstorms should gradually diminish
through 6-9 PM.

The region will continue to be positioned between the
aforementioned upper lvl low meandering to our northwest and a sfc
high centered over the Southeastern CONUS/northeastern Gulf. This
scenario is helping to push deeper Gulf moisture into the region.
Therefore, isolated showers cannot be ruled out late tonight into
early morning along the coast and Gulf Waters.

The workweek will start off with best precipitation chances, at
least for areas east of the I-45 corridor. Latest global model
runs suggest an uptick in moisture with PWATs into the 1.6 to near
2.0 inch range. These values are near the 75 percentile of
climatology. Persistent onshore flow, weaker heights and
increasing PWATs should be enough to allow scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Rainfall totals in the hundredths to
half inch range will be possible.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies and rain/storm chances will help to
keep high temperatures mainly from the mid to upper 90s on
Monday.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2023

An upper level trough/low is progged to pass through the Northern
Plains early next week. The associated surface low over the
Plains with surface high pressure across the SE CONUS should
tighten the pressure gradient and usher in steady onshore flow
throughout most of the week. PWs of 1.6 - 1.9 inches with weak
capping and weak impulses will be conducive for scattered
showers/storm development, especially during the afternoon along
the sea breeze. Areas that don`t receive rainfall will likely see
highs in the 90s/lower 100s, with heat indicies of 102-110.

Ridging rebuilds across the SW CONUS by mid next week, with peak
500mb heights climbing to 597 dam heading into the weekend. Booooooooo!!!!!!!
Increasing subsidence should work to reduce rain chances through
Friday, through a passing shortwave should bring PoPs up slightly
for Saturday. 850mb temperatures climb to around 21-26C near the
end of the forecast period, bringing more widespread triple digit
highs across the region.

03

&&

[Cromagnum]

Ah yes, the trademarked "rain in two weeks" part of the forecast, that has been BS every single time. So glad I'm going to the mountains in Utah next weekend to get away from this hellscape.

[jasons2k]

It better rain. That is all.

[djmike]

1/4” of measurable rain. Thankful but nowhere enough to make a dent in this horrible SETX drought.

[Cromagnum]

Absolutely nothing so far. Every cell has evaporated or went around as usual. About to drag the sprinkler out again.

[user:null]

1/4” of measurable rain. Thankful but nowhere enough to make a dent in this horrible SETX drought.

The storm coverage started out strong around your area+Acadiana coastal region. But now the bulk of activity seems to have shifted north to the northeast Piney Woods in areas like Lufkin (as of now).

Absolutely nothing so far. Every cell has evaporated or went around as usual. About to drag the sprinkler out again.

Needville/Brazos Bend SP, nearby Rosharon, got hit rather good earlier this morning. Brazoria county had decent spread coverage this morning, and the moisture fetch (as per returns) is going strong as far west as Victoria Crossroads and College Station areas.

I have hope regarding your chances.

[user:null]

I read the forecast discussion as far east as New Orleans (LIX), and even they expressed dissapointment/lack of confidence regarding convection the past few days underperforming their expectations. I notice looking at radar that Acadiana into New Orleans area has been rather dry-slotted so far (in between activity around MS/Pearl River area, as well as the ocurrences in far eastern Texas).

Speaking of far eastern Texas, the bulk of activity was initially focused on Beaumont-Port Arthur + Lake Charles, but as of now it has shifted to around the Lufkin/Piney Woods northeast areas. But radar coverage is starting to look good in Houston, especially given moisture fetch much farther west around College Station and Victoria.

Supposedly, Space City Weather is "NO HYPE" and they state that things will juice up/expand west later this morning and through the afternoon: we'll see what goes on today.

[don]

I'm FINALLY getting rain right now, its been a while.

[Cromagnum]

I read the forecast discussion as far east as New Orleans (LIX), and even they expressed dissapointment/lack of confidence regarding convection the past few days underperforming their expectations. I notice looking at radar that Acadiana into New Orleans area has been rather dry-slotted so far (in between activity around MS/Pearl River area, as well as the ocurrences in far eastern Texas).

Speaking of far eastern Texas, the bulk of activity was initially focused on Beaumont-Port Arthur + Lake Charles, but as of now it has shifted to around the Lufkin/Piney Woods northeast areas. But radar coverage is starting to look good in Houston, especially given moisture fetch much farther west around College Station and Victoria.

Supposedly, Space City Weather is "NO HYPE" and they state that things will juice up/expand west later this morning and through the afternoon: we'll see what goes on today.

I have fallen out of favor with space city weather guys to be honest. Hope they are right but not holding my breath. Already had two more nice cells miss me to the south, and even bigger one on the way that looks like it will also miss.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I read the forecast discussion as far east as New Orleans (LIX), and even they expressed dissapointment/lack of confidence regarding convection the past few days underperforming their expectations. I notice looking at radar that Acadiana into New Orleans area has been rather dry-slotted so far (in between activity around MS/Pearl River area, as well as the ocurrences in far eastern Texas).

Speaking of far eastern Texas, the bulk of activity was initially focused on Beaumont-Port Arthur + Lake Charles, but as of now it has shifted to around the Lufkin/Piney Woods northeast areas. But radar coverage is starting to look good in Houston, especially given moisture fetch much farther west around College Station and Victoria.

Supposedly, Space City Weather is "NO HYPE" and they state that things will juice up/expand west later this morning and through the afternoon: we'll see what goes on today.

I have fallen out of favor with space city weather guys to be honest. Hope they are right but not holding my breath. Already had two more nice cells miss me to the south, and even bigger one on the way that looks like it will also miss.

Well then your forecast was spot on. It’s not about what happens at your houses. It’s about what happens in your area.

They were correct.

[Katdaddy]

Just got .42” from a nice tropical thundershower. Happy yard.

[Stratton20]

Im seeing signs of potentially our first legit fall front of the year in the day 8-10 range, The CMC is especially bullish, but even the GFS and euro also show a decent cool down, with more troughing setting up over the eastern US, this is beginning to spell the end of our heat ridge pattern for good

[Cromagnum]

Cell #4 evaporates and completely misses. White flag. Sprinkler engaged.

[captainbarbossa19]

Im seeing signs of potentially our first legit fall front of the year in the day 8-10 range, The CMC is especially bullish, but even the GFS and euro also show a decent cool down, with more troughing setting up over the eastern US, this is beginning to spell the end of our heat ridge pattern for good

Yes! I think this stagnant pattern is about to potentially be gone for good in a week or two! We should gradually see an uptick in rain, especially as we near November. El Nino will really start to affect our pattern soon.

[Cpv17]

Im seeing signs of potentially our first legit fall front of the year in the day 8-10 range, The CMC is especially bullish, but even the GFS and euro also show a decent cool down, with more troughing setting up over the eastern US, this is beginning to spell the end of our heat ridge pattern for good

Yes! I think this stagnant pattern is about to potentially be gone for good in a week or two! We should gradually see an uptick in rain, especially as we near November. El Nino will really start to affect our pattern soon.

I’ve never in my life heard that El Niño doesn’t impact our weather much during the summer months. I think that argument is horse crap. Back in April and May mostly all of us were saying it would be a wet summer. The culprit was the -PDO. It had nothing to do with “El Niño doesn’t have much influence on our weather during the summer”. Had the PDO been more positive then we would’ve seen more rain this summer. El Niño can still impact our weather with more rain during the summer but not with a big blob of colder than normal waters off the Baja extending past Hawaii.

[Stratton20]

Lol come on CMC, getting our hopes up

[DoctorMu]

Seabreeze is activated, but the SW - NE flow is missing CLL and impacting east of I-45.

[Cpv17]

Lol come on CMC, getting our hopes up

Lol you can usually add like 10 degrees to what the CMC shows.

[Cromagnum]

Nothing on radar to my south anymore so going to wind up with a big fat goose egg like normal. So tired of having to water twice a week in a vain attempt to keep my yard barely alive.

[Cpv17]

Nothing on radar to my south anymore so going to wind up with a big fat goose egg like normal. So tired of having to water twice a week in a vain attempt to keep my yard barely alive.

These types of showers that we’ve been getting today won’t really do much anyway. We’ve had 2 of them and they barely lasted for 1-2 minutes. Enough to settle the dust for a few hours, if that.