2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[TexasBreeze]

May have to end up watching Idalia down the road. Gfs has it stalling off the southeast us and then backtracking to Louisiana if you could believe it! It has it very weak for now.

[tireman4]

As the afternoon computer models begin to come in, I want to issue a word of caution. Models continue to poorly reflect the eastward jog of #Idalia the past 24 hours.Right now, models (both GFS and Euro) expect the storm to be west of 85W. The center is lying at, or just east,… pic.twitter.com/2frsA9Oblg
-- Zach Covey (@ZachCoveyTV) August 28, 2023

[tireman4]

Here is the concern. This is not a forecast, just something we will be watching VERY CLOSELY.No doubt the weather will be bad here, but the key is to keep the eye wall offshore. That is where the worst weather is located. We want to avoid being in the eye wall. Right now, it… pic.twitter.com/jVc4hrnII3
-- Paul DellegattoFOX (@PaulFox13) August 28, 2023

[Stratton20]

That is an interesting run by the GFS, loops Idalia back into the gulf as its exit gets blocked by high pressure

[cperk]

That is an interesting run by the GFS, loops Idalia back into the gulf as its exit gets blocked by high pressure

Interesting and a joke all in one.

[jasons2k]

Paul Dellegatto was Roy Leep’s hand-picked successor at WTVT.

That weather department has a storied history with many “firsts” in the broadcasting business, especially for Florida.

I’m streaming WTVT now: https://www.fox13news.com/

Great info on the history below. I’m always amazed at the old equipment and the ingenuity of engineers and scientists when they were working with slide rules:

http://www.big13.com/Weather/wxstory1.htm

[tireman4]

The radar out of Cuba illustrates why #Idalia is only slowly intensifying for now. There is an offset (tilt) between the low/mid level circulations due to some northerly shear (saw it on the flight too). So the convective bursts aren't as effective at lowering the pressure. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/s6R1eFuQS8
-- Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) August 28, 2023
The longer this continues, the better for Florida. However, shear will change to more southerly (aligned with motion) soon, and allow the storm to become vertically stacked. How soon this happens is critical for exactly how strong #Idalia becomes before landfall Wednesday (2/3).
-- Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) August 28, 2023
Hurricane models say the alignment/symmetrization happens tonight. If it takes an extra 12-18 hours, maybe that leaves a little less time for RI. This will be important to watch as the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. (3/3) pic.twitter.com/zSNRh5SRN4
-- Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) August 28, 2023

[tireman4]

117
URNT12 KNHC 281745
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 28/16:59:20Z
B. 21.06 deg N 085.14 deg W
C. 850 mb 1338 m
D. 988 mb
E. 305 deg 13 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 60 kt
I. 111 deg 20 nm 16:51:00Z
J. 208 deg 58 kt
K. 114 deg 17 nm 16:52:00Z
L. 36 kt
M. 305 deg 15 nm 17:05:00Z
N. 037 deg 34 kt
O. 306 deg 16 nm 17:05:30Z
P. 17 C / 1530 m
Q. 23 C / 1517 m
R. 19 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 5 nm
U. AF309 0510A IDALIA OB 28
MAX FL WIND 63 KT 043 / 36 NM 12:16:00Z
;

[captainbarbossa19]

That is an interesting run by the GFS, loops Idalia back into the gulf as its exit gets blocked by high pressure

Interesting and a joke all in one.

Looks like the big difference of what will happen to Idalia depends on whether Franklin gets picked up by the trough or not. GFS has it picked up, but the Euro shows that it misses it.

[tireman4]

While I have noted that Tropical #Storm #Idalia still hasn't made much progress wrapping convection upshear and sustaining it, that is unfortunately all part of the plan. Hurricane models (like HAFS-A here) all account for this and still indicate a major landfall. #tropicswx pic.twitter.com/YCnQ7W7rUy
-- Sausiuswx (@Sausius_wx) August 28, 2023

[DoctorMu]

While I have noted that Tropical #Storm #Idalia still hasn't made much progress wrapping convection upshear and sustaining it, that is unfortunately all part of the plan. Hurricane models (like HAFS-A here) all account for this and still indicate a major landfall. #tropicswx pic.twitter.com/YCnQ7W7rUy
-- Sausiuswx (@Sausius_wx) August 28, 2023

The slower Idalia moves, the more likely it gets blocked by high pressure and loops around.

Also, Idalia is more likely to become a major hurricane in the GoM.

[captainbarbossa19]

18z ICON is also showing a stalled Idalia in the Atlantic.

[DoctorMu]

That eastern eyewall will not be a joke. Tampa better be prepared, even if there isn't "landfall" of the eye.

[Stratton20]

Even more Bad news for florida, the CMC now joins the GFS in showing a loop back towards florida and the gulf, big ridge builds in and blocks this from moving out, some members of the GEFS even show redevelopment in the gulf again, crazy!

[sambucol]

Even more Bad news for florida, the CMC now joins the GFS in showing a loop back towards florida and the gulf, big ridge builds in and blocks this from moving out, some members of the GEFS even show redevelopment in the gulf again, crazy!

Would that send it toward us if it loops back?

[Stratton20]

sambucol not likely, the ridge is pretty far north, so it would just steer it back into florida and then just move in land, plus their is a trough digging down in the central us so even if it got into the gulf it would likely just get pushed into lousiana or the eastern gulf again

[jasons2k]

Idalia:

Based on what I see today, Idalia treks close to the forecast. I’m not seeing a swing towards the coast yet. Encouraging news for Tampa.
The storm is starting to bomb though. Worst storm in recorded history for Cedar Key.

[sambucol]

I’ve heard a few people in person talking about something coming into the GOM next week with a possible threat to Texas/Louisiana. Does anyone know anything about this?

[Stratton20]

sambucol i havent heard any talk about that, even if idalia loops back around into the gulf again, it will be very weak, but i dont see a threat to texas from it

[Cpv17]

I’ve heard a few people in person talking about something coming into the GOM next week with a possible threat to Texas/Louisiana. Does anyone know anything about this?

The second week of September needs to be watched for our area.