2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[tireman4]

Tropical Storm #Harold tightening up in a last ditch pulse of intensification ahead of land fall in Texas within the next few hoursSoaking rains drenching south Texas - some gusty winds as well@KHOU #khou11 @chitakhou pic.twitter.com/iZkyrK4pam
-- Tim Pandajis (@TimPandajisKHOU) August 22, 2023

[tireman4]

Radar of Tropical Storm Harold

[tireman4]

Tropical Storm Harold Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
900 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...HAROLD STRENGTHENS AND REFORMS TO THE NORTH...

Radar images and surface observations indicate that the center of
Harold has reformed to the north of the previous estimated position
and has strengthened. The maximum sustained winds are now
estimated at 50 mph (85 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[weatherguy425]

The GEFS continues to not be too enthused about development in the western Caribbean/BOC. The EPS looks a bit more promising but even on there it’s not too strong of a signal.

Yeah, signal isn’t strong, but pattern in general is worth watching.

[brazoriatx]

Rain clouds around but not a single drop!

[tireman4]

Looks like a partial eyewall has formed in #Harold right as it prepares to make landfall south of Corpus Christi, Texas. Thankfully it's still asymmetric and open to the south. I would expect some wind gusts over 60 mph along the coast to the north of the landfall point. pic.twitter.com/7Ut9Vo5rag
-- Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) August 22, 2023

[weatherguy425]

Looking ahead - stronger ECMWF and EPS support for a system developing in the BOC/western Caribbean. Steering will be complicated.

[tireman4]

#Harold reforms to the north. Where it was suppose to be and where the circulation center is actually. Heavy rain bands coming ashore now. Image: @RadarOmega pic.twitter.com/KucFMVoAES
-- Jim Edds (@ExtremeStorms) August 22, 2023

[tireman4]

Matt Lanza...

[jasons2k]

Made a last second jog south just before landfall.

[tireman4]

.HAROLD MAKES LANDFALL ON PADRE ISLAND TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...

10:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 22
Location: 27.1°N 97.4°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph



Tropical Storm Harold Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Radar data from Brownsville, Texas, indicate that the center of
Harold reformed to the north of the previous Air Force Hurricane
Hunter fixes and has now made landfall over Padre Island, Texas
between Port Mansfield and Corpus Christi. The NOAA Buoy at Padre
Island recently reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds with
gusts around 50 kt, and tropical-storm-force have very recently been
reported along portions of the south Texas coast. Bands of heavy
rain are spreading inland over south Texas, mostly to the north of
the center. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on radar
data and surface observations.

Harold is moving quickly to the west-northwest at 18 kt in the flow
on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge. The storm is
expected to move farther inland across southern Texas and northern
Mexico during the next day or so as it remains on the south side of
the ridge.

Since the center of the storm has reached the coast, the window for
strengthening has closed. Land interaction should cause a quick
decay, and Harold is expected to become a tropical depression later
today and dissipate on Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across south Texas through early
Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across
portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico,
flash flooding with possible landslides in mountainous terrain is
expected through Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
through this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area during the next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 27.1N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 23/0000Z 27.7N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1200Z 29.5N 103.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[tireman4]

Matt Lanza on Harold

[Cpv17]

Looking ahead - stronger ECMWF and EPS support for a system developing in the BOC/western Caribbean. Steering will be complicated.

As of now if something does form down there, it doesn’t really look like a threat to Texas. Less ensemble member support for Texas now, but who knows, that’s still kinda far out.

[Stratton20]

Yeah the upper air pattern doesnt look favorable for a texas landfall if anything forms in the western caribbean, trough digging down from the SE would yank whatever tries to form down there towards florida,

[Cpv17]

Yeah the upper air pattern doesnt look favorable for a texas landfall if anything forms in the western caribbean, trough digging down from the SE would yank whatever tries to form down there towards florida,

Yeah. More like an October pattern instead of late August, weird.

[weatherguy425]

Looking ahead - stronger ECMWF and EPS support for a system developing in the BOC/western Caribbean. Steering will be complicated.

As of now if something does form down there, it doesn’t really look like a threat to Texas. Less ensemble member support for Texas now, but who knows, that’s still kinda far out.

Just worth noting the pattern and general area. 500MB pattern varies run to run.

[Stratton20]

Cvp17 to be fair though it is a tricky pttern because that trough i retrograding back to the WSW so the steering could be wonky, plus the 12z GEFS did have an uptick in support somewhat

[weatherguy425]

Yeah the upper air pattern doesnt look favorable for a texas landfall if anything forms in the western caribbean, trough digging down from the SE would yank whatever tries to form down there towards florida,

Yeah. More like an October pattern instead of late August, weird.

Yes, because the summer has been VERY troughy (sarcasm) Let’s not bet on anything just yet. Keep a casual eye on it

[weatherguy425]

Yeah the upper air pattern doesnt look favorable for a texas landfall if anything forms in the western caribbean, trough digging down from the SE would yank whatever tries to form down there towards florida,

Yeah. More like an October pattern instead of late August, weird.

Yes, because the summer has been VERY troughy (sarcasm) Let’s not bet on anything just yet. Keep a casual eye on it

Also, keep in mind, Franklin will have an impact on overall conditions and any troughing on the east coast.

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 how would franklin effect troughing?