2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Stratton20]

If this thing had an extra day over water i have no doubts it would become a hurricane, guess we will see what other mischeif may await the gulf down the road

[Rip76]

The gulf is untapped. I wouldn’t be surprised if it made a run at Hurricane status. Even being this close.

[tireman4]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING
TEXAS...
...FLOODING RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 91.0W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[tireman4]

Tropical Storm Franklin
...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING FRANKLIN...
2:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 21
Location: 14.5°N 70.1°W
Moving: W at 4 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[cperk]

That system in the gulf is helping me some with lower temps due to cloud cover.

[Cpv17]

That system in the gulf is helping me some with lower temps due to cloud cover.

Yep, same here.

[Stratton20]

Euro has the pacific crossover occuring in about 4 days or so, CMC ensembles showing it, GEFS some as well, steering pattern looks very complicated though

[weatherguy425]

Euro has the pacific crossover occuring in about 4 days or so, CMC ensembles showing it, GEFS some as well, steering pattern looks very complicated though

There is no true Pacific crossover modeled on the 12Z ECMWF operational run.

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 ah nvm it looks like the guidance just tries to spin something up in the caribbean instead of bringing in a system from the pacific, we will see

[weatherguy425]

weatherguy425 ah nvm it looks like the guidance just tries to spin something up in the caribbean instead of bringing in a system from the pacific, we will see

Just keep an eye on the BOC, southern Gulf and western Caribbean. As said before, there is a lot of persistent storminess modeled by most guidance. Worth keeping a casual eye on; especially days 6-12.

[tireman4]

weatherguy425 ah nvm it looks like the guidance just tries to spin something up in the caribbean instead of bringing in a system from the pacific, we will see

Just keep an eye on the BOC, southern Gulf and western Caribbean. As said before, there is a lot of persistent storminess modeled by most guidance. Worth keeping a casual eye on; especially days 6-12.

As Steve would say, maybe enough to raise an eyebrow..LOL

[Rip76]

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago and data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the system now has a closed and
fairly well-defined center of circulation. In addition, deep
convection has been persisting over the central and western Gulf of
Mexico. The system now meets the definition of a tropical
depression, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The
far outer bands of the depression are nearing the coast of Texas and
northern Mexico, and they are expected to begin moving inland
tonight.

[Cpv17]

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago and data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the system now has a closed and
fairly well-defined center of circulation. In addition, deep
convection has been persisting over the central and western Gulf of
Mexico. The system now meets the definition of a tropical
depression, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The
far outer bands of the depression are nearing the coast of Texas and
northern Mexico, and they are expected to begin moving inland
tonight.

[Cpv17]

The GEFS continues to not be too enthused about development in the western Caribbean/BOC. The EPS looks a bit more promising but even on there it’s not too strong of a signal.

[weatherguy425]

The GEFS continues to not be too enthused about development in the western Caribbean/BOC. The EPS looks a bit more promising but even on there it’s not too strong of a signal.

Glad we also have rain *possibilities moving in from the north, east.

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 and those will likely not verify either lol, ridge locked in through mid september, dont see widespread rains returning until then, just more misery

[869MB]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harold Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 94.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[tireman4]

Tropical Storm Harold Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Air Force Hurricane Hunter wind observations indicate that the
cyclone strengthened to a tropical storm earlier this morning.
However, the circulation is not very well defined and the low-level
center is somewhat elongated from south to north. Imagery from the
Brownsville WSR-88D radar shows broad cyclonic turning, with curved
rain bands moving onshore of the south Texas coast.

Harold is embedded in strong deep-layer easterlies on the southern
periphery of a large anticyclone over the east-central United
States. As a result, the cyclone is moving fairly briskly toward
the west-northwest at around 285/16 kt. This general motion should
continue through tonight, and the official forecast is quite
similar to the previous one. This is also very close to the latest
corrected consensus, HCCA prediction.

The system still has a short time to strengthen over the warm Gulf
waters, and the latest SHIPS guidance shows slight strengthening
within the next 12 hours. This is reflected in the official
forecast. Since the cyclone does not have a well-defined inner
core, however, rapid intensification is not likely before landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Harold is expected across
South Texas through early Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash
and urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible
landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday through
Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
today through Tuesday evening.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area,and
are possible in the watch area, within a few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 25.8N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 26.5N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/0600Z 27.8N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 29.5N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[tireman4]

Tropical Storm Harold Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
700 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...HAROLD EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS COAST LATER
THIS MORNING...
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE WARNING
AREA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[brazoriatx]

How's everyone enjoying the rain?