2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[DoctorMu]

As expected - it is Aug 20 and the GoM, Caribbean and ATL basin are open for business. We need the ridge to lift a little higher north to send tropical rain our way.

[DoctorMu]

Weak lemonade is the best chance for widespread rains.

this is really a turbocharged 1998 with a higher CC baseline beneath it. Hopefully, next summer follows the pattern and is cooler.

[tireman4]

Tropics Heating Up

[brazoriatx]

Tropics Heating Up

Most of them are all fish storms tho

[tireman4]

Tropics Heating Up

Most of them are all fish storms tho

Not sure you can say that about Franklin. I could be wrong. Gert might recurve....I think the switch has been turned on

[Cpv17]

Tropics Heating Up

Most of them are all fish storms tho

Outside of the Caribbean Islands, I agree. And I personally couldn’t give 2 cents about fish storms.

[mcheer23]

Need to watch the potential crossover system this weekend…

[weatherguy425]

Need to watch the potential crossover system this weekend…

^^ Even if a singular entity doesn’t survive the trek, most guidance favors lower pressures and persistent storminess in the BOC/Western Caribbean.

[mcheer23]

Advisories will be issued on PTC 9 over the Gulf of Mexico at 10am

[tireman4]

Best Track has a TS...

AL, 09, 2023082112, , BEST, 0, 248N, 890W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, alB12023 to al092023,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 092023.dat

[brazoriatx]

Need to watch the potential crossover system this weekend…

^^ Even if a singular entity doesn’t survive the trek, most guidance favors lower pressures and persistent storminess in the BOC/Western Caribbean.

Even if something does come of it wouldn't that heat dome block it from gaining latitude and heading towards us?

[weatherguy425]

Need to watch the potential crossover system this weekend…

^^ Even if a singular entity doesn’t survive the trek, most guidance favors lower pressures and persistent storminess in the BOC/Western Caribbean.

Even if something does come of it wouldn't that heat dome block it from gaining latitude and heading towards us?

It depends on many factors. But, all guidance also weakens and repositions the ridge next week. Just something to keep an eye on.

[tireman4]

From the NHC..

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the central Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC).

[tireman4]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

The broad area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico
continues to gradually become better organized with showers and
thunderstorms increasing on the system's north side. However,
surface observations and early morning visible satellite images
suggest that it does not have a well-defined center yet, and
therefore, does not meet the definition of a tropical cyclone at
this time. Since the system is forecast to strengthen and make
landfall as a tropical storm on Tuesday, advisories are being
initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine with Tropical Storm
Warnings now in effect for portions of south Texas.

The disturbance is moving fairly quickly to the west at 14 kt on the
south side of a strong mid-level ridge located over the central U.S.
An even faster motion to the west or west-northwest is expected,
taking the system over southern Texas by midday Tuesday. It should
be noted that since the system does not yet have a clear center, the
details of the track forecast are a bit uncertain. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon, which should help assess the low-level structure.

The environmental factors are generally favorable for the system to
strengthen. However, there is limited time for the disturbance to
take advantage of those conditions, especially since it still lacks
a well-defined center. The NHC official intensity forecast shows
the system reaching a peak intensity of 40 kt before landfall, which
is near the high end of the model guidance. Rapid weakening is
expected after landfall.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected
across South Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. The heavy rainfall may
produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across portions of
Coahilla and Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible
landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
tonight through Tuesday morning.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area beginning Tuesday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 25.0N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/0000Z 25.5N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 22/1200Z 26.6N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 27.8N 100.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[jasons2k]

I remember when John Cangialosi and Derek Ortt were roomates. Time flies…

John has a shot at NHC Director some day.

I’m still hoping for a passing shower or rain band before it’s all over. Watching the satellite loops closely.

[tireman4]

One day, I hope Sandy Delgado gets his shot!!

[brazoriatx]

So close yet so far away...hopefully we get a stray shower

[Stratton20]

GFS has this getting down to 993 mb lol

[weatherguy425]

GFS has this getting down to 993 mb lol

That would imply a tropical storm in a typical pressure-wind relationship. That said, there has been a bit of an uptick toward moderate or strong tropical storm status on today’s 12z run.

[jasons2k]

GFS has this getting down to 993 mb lol

I would not be surprised. It’s still elongated but the outflow is improving. It’s definitely going try and tighten before landfall. It would keep going if it were over open water.