Update from Jeff:
Tropical Storm likely to make landfall along the lower Texas coast on Tuesday.
Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening.
Satellite images indicate that the tropical wave now over the central Gulf of Mexico continues to become better organized and it is likely that a tropical cyclone is forming. While satellite and surface observations do not show any well defined surface circulation, the sharp wave axis is close to closing off a surface low. A USAF mission will investigate 91L today to determine if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.
91L will continue to move westward and approach the lower Texas coast tonight and make landfall between Corpus Christi and Brownsville on Tuesday morning. With strong high pressure over the Midwest, most of the impacts associated with this system will remain south of SE TX. In fact, one of the biggest impacts will likely be an enhancement of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening (see fire weather section below).
Tropical moisture will attempt to increase across SE TX later today, but most of this will be held to the coastal areas where a few bands will approach the coast and may move onshore this evening. This is supported by the short range guidance, but most of the activity dissipates after moving onshore and moving into increasing subsidence from the high to the north. On Tuesday moisture values increase slightly and a bit further inland however still think any wetting rainfall will be confined to the coastal locations with isolated activity up to the I-10 corridor. Rainfall amounts will generally average less than .50 of an inch across the coastal counties and maybe up to .25 of an inch toward the I-10 corridor.
Winds will back to the E and ENE today and begin to increase, especially across the coastal waters. Winds build into the 20-30kt range tonight into early Tuesday over the coastal waters with seas of 7-12ft offshore and 5-7 ft nearshore. While coastal flooding is not expected, high wave action on the Gulf facing beaches may result in wave run-up that could briefly cover beaches to near the base of the dunes early Tuesday.
Fire Weather:
Red Flag Warning in effect for all areas from 1000am to 900pm today (except Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers Counties).
As the pressure gradient tightens this afternoon with developing low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north, winds will back to the E/ENE and increase into the 10-20mph range across much of SE TX. Afternoon humidity values will fall to less than 35% for areas north of I-10 and when combined with breezy conditions and critically dry fuels in place there will be a high potential for wildfires. The ongoing very dry conditions and hot afternoon temperatures have depleted vegetation moisture to the point where nearly all fuel loads will readily burn. Fires over the weekend across eastern Texas exhibited aggressive behavior especially in pine canopies where longer sustained crown runs were noted. Additionally, fires that were previously “considered contained and out” have rekindled after several days. With winds higher than in previous days, critical fire weather conditions will be in place this afternoon and evening.
Maximum precautions should be utilized with any materials that may start a fire.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
