2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Stratton20]

Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance

[weatherguy425]

Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance

Actually, it is falling - mostly - in line with what models have suggested. Slow, but steady, consolidation over the next 36 hours on its trip westward or west-northwestward.

[Katdaddy]

TS Franklin in the E Caribbean.

[tireman4]

Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance

Actually, it is falling - mostly - in line with what models have suggested. Slow, but steady, consolidation over the next 36 hours on its trip westward or west-northwestward.

How stoing it gets will be interesting

[weatherguy425]

Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance

Actually, it is falling - mostly - in line with what models have suggested. Slow, but steady, consolidation over the next 36 hours on its trip westward or west-northwestward.

How stoing it gets will be interesting

This system definitely has a cap. The conditions ahead of it aren't terrible, but not perfect either. Tropical Storm status seems to be a most-likely possibility.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS is starting to show something crossing over into the western Caribbean fwiw at hour 132, nothing consolidates truly on the run but does show low pressure attempting to spin up

[srainhoutx]

Be careful of Central America gyeres. They'll give you heartburn if you're counting on them to deliver.

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands, on Tropical Storm Emily, located about 1000 miles
west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and on newly formed
Tropical Storm Franklin, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased this evening, and are
becoming better organized in association with a trough of low
pressure located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for development of this system as it
moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph across the central Gulf of
Mexico. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form as it
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday.
Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be necessary
on Monday for portions of the southern Texas and northern Mexico
coastlines.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Stratton20]

It truly is demoralizing to see a system make landfall to the south of us with so much moisture, absolutely depressing

[don]

It truly is demoralizing to see a system make landfall to the south of us with so much moisture, absolutely depressing

At least someone in Texas is getting some much needed rain,we're all in this together.

[walsean1]

It truly is demoralizing to see a system make landfall to the south of us with so much moisture, absolutely depressing

Our time will come and when it does we will probably get too much rain all at once. It just right now we have to endure the worst Heat/Drought period we have seen in our lifetime.

[user:null]

It truly is demoralizing to see a system make landfall to the south of us with so much moisture, absolutely depressing

Consider it a win if we just catch a few solid isolated storms/rain bands, like WRF and some NAM runs have showed.

[weatherguy425]

It truly is demoralizing to see a system make landfall to the south of us with so much moisture, absolutely depressing

At least someone in Texas is getting some much needed rain,we're all in this together.

Exactly.... and it takes a chip at the drought. We can be choosers, right now. Plenty of hurricane season left and continued signals in the longer range guidance that an eye will need to be kept on the southerner Gulf and we may see rain chances increase regardless of tropics by weeks two and three.

[user:null]

I think if it even comes in at corpus, we wont see much of anything. MY only hope is that the moisture gets displaced much further north away from the “center” like we've seen many times before. But, thats just dreaming. Unfortunately I think we will just have to write this one off and move on and pray a new setup will happen soon.

Or maybe ... you can work some of that "Beaumont magic" and pull a last-minute northeast trend? Just like Harvey, Imelda, June 2022's disturbance, etc?

[Pas_Bon]

This potential storm needs to pull a Rita (vis a vis track only) and juke us all.

[Stratton20]

No tricks this time , that high is way too strong

[Pas_Bon]

No tricks this time , that high is way too strong

We all need to say mean things to it at the same time and maybe we can beat it down enough to go away? I’m grabbing at straws here.

[user:null]

Or, at the very least, weaken it enough to get the storm as close to San Antonio Bay/Matagorda as possible.

[djmike]

I think if it even comes in at corpus, we wont see much of anything. MY only hope is that the moisture gets displaced much further north away from the “center” like we've seen many times before. But, thats just dreaming. Unfortunately I think we will just have to write this one off and move on and pray a new setup will happen soon.

Or maybe ... you can work some of that "Beaumont magic" and pull a last-minute northeast trend? Just like Harvey, Imelda, June 2022's disturbance, etc?

Haha I thought of that. Wondered where it will go after landfall. But qpf still shows about zip for the next 7, so I doubt any Harvey maneuver will happen. Not sure if I want a Harvey Redo because my home flooded but Id gladly take another Imelda. Lol

[Stratton20]

Maybe if the system stays broad and doesnt get compact we might just might have a chance for a rain band or teo