2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Cpv17]

We need to keep an eye on this one.

For sure, Jason! That one has had my attention since yesterdays 12z runs.

[Stratton20]

Of course the system will stay south of us, yet another tease by the models, at this point ill believe rain when i see it falling from the sky, what an absolute joke, mother nature is about to catch these hands lol

[sambucol]

We need to keep an eye on this one.

Yes. That’s the one I’m most concerned about.

[captainbarbossa19]

Of course the system will stay south of us, yet another tease by the models, at this point ill believe rain when i see it falling from the sky, what an absolute joke, mother nature is about to catch these hands lol

Careful what you wish for. Sometimes mother nature is cruel in ways other than drought to us. She often flips the switch in the blink of an eye at the most unexpected time.

[don]

Of course the system will stay south of us, yet another tease by the models, at this point ill believe rain when i see it falling from the sky, what an absolute joke, mother nature is about to catch these hands lol

Keep in mind everyone in the state needs the rain.Whether it came to SE Texas or not,someone in the state was gonna loose out on beneficial rains regardless.It just happens to be us this time LOL.

[mcheer23]

We need to keep an eye on this one.

Yes. That’s the one I’m most concerned about.

I don’t think that one will make it into the Gulf.

[user:null]

Of course the system will stay south of us, yet another tease by the models, at this point ill believe rain when i see it falling from the sky, what an absolute joke, mother nature is about to catch these hands lol

Texas is cursed, and the curse has spread well into Louisiana and Mississippi for the time being. It's impossible to get good trends here, nothing good ever happens, impossible. The EURO is "the most accurate model" but it will flop and fail if it means the detrimental solution verifies here.

[brazoriatx]

As a wise man once said.....





NEXT...

[captainbarbossa19]

Of course the system will stay south of us, yet another tease by the models, at this point ill believe rain when i see it falling from the sky, what an absolute joke, mother nature is about to catch these hands lol

Texas is cursed, and the curse has spread well into Louisiana and Mississippi for the time being. It's impossible to get good trends here, nothing good ever happens, impossible. The EURO is "the most accurate model" but it will flop and fail if it means the detrimental solution verifies here.

Yeah it's supposed to be around 100 here in Starkville again next week. Not liking this weather pattern for much of the South. Eventually the ridge will break down though. The question is how many more weeks or heaven forbid months will it take for something to change.

[Stratton20]

Yep, im waving the white flag on this gulf system, but until that high breaks down for good, i dont even think the tropics are going to help much either, El nino really needs to start kicking in fast before fires start becoming a very serious problem across the state and here in se texas locally
NEXT!

[davidiowx]

I know we are all desperate for rain but it is not wise to wave the flag on this one yet. Things could change tonight/tomorrow. If we are sitting here Sunday and it's the same then we can likely say this one isn't going to help the rain situation.

[cperk]

I know we are all desperate for rain but it is not wise to wave the flag on this one yet. Things could change tonight/tomorrow. If we are sitting here Sunday and it's the same then we can likely say this one isn't going to help the rain situation.

A voice of reason.

[jasons2k]

We need to keep an eye on this one.

Yes. That’s the one I’m most concerned about.

I don’t think that one will make it into the Gulf.

Unfortunately the ensembles pull it north. I’m hoping for a sheared mess to sneak along for later. We’ll see.

[Stratton20]

Im not sure that yellow lemonade is the spot to watch near the antilles, seems like the one models are picking up on is a CAG setup, will see if the NHC highlights it soon since models and ensembles are moving up development inside of 192-216 hours, will see about that one, could be a gulf threat or could just get yanked north and then NNE by a trough

Gulf spot up to 40% now but still not coming here

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs ha late October pattern don’t buy that one bit

[txsnowmaker]

Im not sure that yellow lemonade is the spot to watch near the antilles, seems like the one models are picking up on is a CAG setup, will see if the NHC highlights it soon since models and ensembles are moving up development inside of 192-216 hours, will see about that one, could be a gulf threat or could just get yanked north and then NNE by a trough

Gulf spot up to 40% now but still not coming here

Per ABC 13 those other systems will steer well clear of the United States…

“All of these would track to the northwest with no threat to land.“

https://abc13.com/hurricane-season-trop ... /13303907/

[don]

Im not sure that yellow lemonade is the spot to watch near the antilles, seems like the one models are picking up on is a CAG setup, will see if the NHC highlights it soon since models and ensembles are moving up development inside of 192-216 hours, will see about that one, could be a gulf threat or could just get yanked north and then NNE by a trough

Gulf spot up to 40% now but still not coming here

Per ABC 13 those other systems will steer well clear of the United States…

“All of these would track to the northwest with no threat to land.“

https://abc13.com/hurricane-season-trop ... /13303907/

We're talking about the system that's about to enter the Gulf,that one WILL impact land.

The only hope for us locally in SE Texas would be the ridge being weaker early next week than what models show right now,allowing a last minute turn to the right up the coast. (Claudette 2003,Beta 2020,Nicholas 2021 as examples)

I'll like to see some model runs once this is an invest before i close the door completely on it though.

[tireman4]

Im not sure that yellow lemonade is the spot to watch near the antilles, seems like the one models are picking up on is a CAG setup, will see if the NHC highlights it soon since models and ensembles are moving up development inside of 192-216 hours, will see about that one, could be a gulf threat or could just get yanked north and then NNE by a trough

Gulf spot up to 40% now but still not coming here

Per ABC 13 those other systems will steer well clear of the United States…

“All of these would track to the northwest with no threat to land.“

https://abc13.com/hurricane-season-trop ... /13303907/

We're talking about the system that's about to enter the Gulf,that one WILL impact land.

The only hope for us locally in SE Texas would be the ridge being weaker early next week than what models show right now,allowing a last minute turn to the right up the coast. (Claudette 2003,Beta 2020,Nicholas 2021 as examples)

I'll like to see some model runs once this is an invest before i close the door completely on it though.

For those of us who grew up watching Dr. Neil Frank at the NHC (and on KHOU), always trust his words. Never ever close your eyes on any system until it has dissipated. With all due respect to those fine young folks at Channel 13, I will place my trust who someone who has seen it all.

[Stratton20]

Why is the development zone for the GULF system still including the upper texas coast? Im very surprised the nhc hasn’t shifted that zone south

[don]

Why is the development zone for the GULF system still including the upper texas coast? Im very surprised the nhc hasn’t shifted that zone south

Margin of error.Even if chances are small there's always a chance the system could develop further north or south than what the models currently show.Better to be safe than sorry.