August 2023
I hope we don't get Don which evaporated off the coast.
Damn I’m in Galveston county.
This high is pretty stout.
Keep in mind that’s the GFS which doesn’t do anything with the gulf system. I think totals will be higher than that.
Topped out at 105°F here with a 110°F heat index. Humidity was nowhere near as bad today as they were saying it would be on the news last night. Dews were in the upper 60’s here this afternoon.
Doesnt look like anyone in SETX will be getting anything from this if trends continue. Figures.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Only good thing that comes from the heat wave is very little to none on the mosquitoe population. Mosquitoes don't thrive in temps this hot and dry. Usually 80-90 range. Any hotter, they start to die off. Now the first good rain, better watch out!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
It will just play out later than normal UNLESS we go from extreme to the other in a short manner.
Team #NeverSummer
The mosquitos then should be SO DEAD in CLL. 109°F today. 39 days in a row of 100°F+. DPs were higher than yesterday.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Aug 17, 2023 9:14 pmIt will just play out later than normal UNLESS we go from extreme to the other in a short manner.
I damn sure hope the sprinkler programming is working. Wish I could bring today's weather up in MN down there.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4509
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 181149
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Dangerously hot conditions will persist through Saturday (and likely
beyond) as daytime temperatures rise to 105 to 109 degrees along and
north of I-10, and 95 to 100 degrees along the coast (but heat
indices will be near 105 to 108 along the coast). Because of these
conditions, the Excessive Heat Warning will continue through
Saturday for areas north and west of Harris County and Heat
Advisories for the rest of the area.
No chance of precipitation is expected through Saturday as high
pressure remains dominant. Because of the extreme heat, very dry
vegetation, and low relative humidities, the Fire Weather Watch is
again in effect today and tomorrow for the Piney Woods region and
portions of the Brazos Valley.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Sunday will be a rather scorching day as the influence of the
strong mid to upper level high lingers across the Southern Plains
and a pulse of low level moisture from the Gulf moves into
Southeast Texas. The highs for Sunday will increase a degree or
two, ranging between 103 to 108 degrees F for much of the area
north of I-10 (some isolated spots could even reach 110 degrees).
Areas south of I-10 will have highs of 101 to 105 degrees F and
highs of 93 to 96 degrees F along the immediate coasts and
Barrier Islands. The heat indices will likely be between 108 and
114 degrees F. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are
likely to be issued or extended; Thus, make sure you make
appropriate adjustments or preparations if you plan to work or
spend time outdoors. There is a slight chance for rain Sunday
afternoon (around 15%), in particular for areas south of I-10, but
at this time, it seems that the coverage will be isolated at
best.
A change in the weather pattern is still expected in the first
half of the upcoming work week. Models continue to indicate a
slight decrease in the 500mb heights as the mid to upper level
ridge gradually shifts to the north, further into Midwest CONUS.
This will open the door for the development of isolated to
possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms over our area, in
particular over the coastal waters and areas south of I-10.
With the ridge meandering over the Midwest, better chances for
showers and thunderstorms is expected late Monday into Tuesday as
a broad area of low pressure moves across the Western Gulf of
Mexico and into the Texas coasts. This feature will bring in
abundant low level moisture into the region; The latest model run
(00Z) shows PWs of around 2.20 to 2.60 inches pushing into
Southeast Texas throughout the day Tuesday, which will hopefully
help bring in some much needed rain. Associated vort max`s could
move over our southern and western portions Tuesday evening, which
could keep scattered activity for those areas through Tuesday
night. Confidence in regards to the development of this low, along
with where exactly it will track, remains low at this time. As
per the latest from NHC (2 AM bulletin), chance of formation is
still 30% through the next 7 days. Regardless of formation or not,
if the forecast remains on track for the rainfall, we could see
cooler temperatures on Tuesday - the highs are currently
forecasted to be in the mid to upper 90s for much of the area.
By midweek, the 500mb heights will begin to rise again as the
ridge moves southward back into the Southern Plains region. This
will begin taper off rain chances as well as increase our highs
back into the low 100s range.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts during the next
few days for more details/updates.
Cotto (24)
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Some patchy fog lingering around LBX again this morning, but this
will dissipate shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, another day of
VFR conditions with southeasterly to southwesterly winds between
7 and 12kts. Winds lower tonight to below 5kts and again cannot
out-rule some patchy fog at LBX or SGR shortly before sunrise
tomorrow morning.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
A typical summertime pattern can be expected with light to
moderate S-SW flow and seas of 2 to 4 feet through the weekend.
Moderate E winds expected early next week and higher seas or
swells are possible across the Gulf waters as a broad area of low
pressure moves across the Western Gulf. Per the latest NHC
guidance, confidence remains low (30%) with any development of
this feature through the next 7 days. Please continue to monitor
the latest forecasts during the next few days for more
information.
Cotto (24)
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Elevated to critical fire weather danger is again expected today and
tomorrow as relative humidity values bottom out to 20 to 25 percent.
With no precipitation expected through the weekend and dangerous
heat, the fuels and vegetation will remain dry and any fires that
develop will likely spread quickly. The Fire Weather Watch continues
for today, and has been re-issued for Saturday. There will be a slow
rise in relative humidity values into the start of next week with a
chance of precipitation Monday into Wednesday.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 106 77 106 78 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 105 81 104 81 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 92 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 AM CDT
Sunday for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212.
Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this
evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 AM CDT Sunday for
TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...24
FIRE WEATHER...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 181149
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Dangerously hot conditions will persist through Saturday (and likely
beyond) as daytime temperatures rise to 105 to 109 degrees along and
north of I-10, and 95 to 100 degrees along the coast (but heat
indices will be near 105 to 108 along the coast). Because of these
conditions, the Excessive Heat Warning will continue through
Saturday for areas north and west of Harris County and Heat
Advisories for the rest of the area.
No chance of precipitation is expected through Saturday as high
pressure remains dominant. Because of the extreme heat, very dry
vegetation, and low relative humidities, the Fire Weather Watch is
again in effect today and tomorrow for the Piney Woods region and
portions of the Brazos Valley.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Sunday will be a rather scorching day as the influence of the
strong mid to upper level high lingers across the Southern Plains
and a pulse of low level moisture from the Gulf moves into
Southeast Texas. The highs for Sunday will increase a degree or
two, ranging between 103 to 108 degrees F for much of the area
north of I-10 (some isolated spots could even reach 110 degrees).
Areas south of I-10 will have highs of 101 to 105 degrees F and
highs of 93 to 96 degrees F along the immediate coasts and
Barrier Islands. The heat indices will likely be between 108 and
114 degrees F. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are
likely to be issued or extended; Thus, make sure you make
appropriate adjustments or preparations if you plan to work or
spend time outdoors. There is a slight chance for rain Sunday
afternoon (around 15%), in particular for areas south of I-10, but
at this time, it seems that the coverage will be isolated at
best.
A change in the weather pattern is still expected in the first
half of the upcoming work week. Models continue to indicate a
slight decrease in the 500mb heights as the mid to upper level
ridge gradually shifts to the north, further into Midwest CONUS.
This will open the door for the development of isolated to
possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms over our area, in
particular over the coastal waters and areas south of I-10.
With the ridge meandering over the Midwest, better chances for
showers and thunderstorms is expected late Monday into Tuesday as
a broad area of low pressure moves across the Western Gulf of
Mexico and into the Texas coasts. This feature will bring in
abundant low level moisture into the region; The latest model run
(00Z) shows PWs of around 2.20 to 2.60 inches pushing into
Southeast Texas throughout the day Tuesday, which will hopefully
help bring in some much needed rain. Associated vort max`s could
move over our southern and western portions Tuesday evening, which
could keep scattered activity for those areas through Tuesday
night. Confidence in regards to the development of this low, along
with where exactly it will track, remains low at this time. As
per the latest from NHC (2 AM bulletin), chance of formation is
still 30% through the next 7 days. Regardless of formation or not,
if the forecast remains on track for the rainfall, we could see
cooler temperatures on Tuesday - the highs are currently
forecasted to be in the mid to upper 90s for much of the area.
By midweek, the 500mb heights will begin to rise again as the
ridge moves southward back into the Southern Plains region. This
will begin taper off rain chances as well as increase our highs
back into the low 100s range.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts during the next
few days for more details/updates.
Cotto (24)
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Some patchy fog lingering around LBX again this morning, but this
will dissipate shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, another day of
VFR conditions with southeasterly to southwesterly winds between
7 and 12kts. Winds lower tonight to below 5kts and again cannot
out-rule some patchy fog at LBX or SGR shortly before sunrise
tomorrow morning.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
A typical summertime pattern can be expected with light to
moderate S-SW flow and seas of 2 to 4 feet through the weekend.
Moderate E winds expected early next week and higher seas or
swells are possible across the Gulf waters as a broad area of low
pressure moves across the Western Gulf. Per the latest NHC
guidance, confidence remains low (30%) with any development of
this feature through the next 7 days. Please continue to monitor
the latest forecasts during the next few days for more
information.
Cotto (24)
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Elevated to critical fire weather danger is again expected today and
tomorrow as relative humidity values bottom out to 20 to 25 percent.
With no precipitation expected through the weekend and dangerous
heat, the fuels and vegetation will remain dry and any fires that
develop will likely spread quickly. The Fire Weather Watch continues
for today, and has been re-issued for Saturday. There will be a slow
rise in relative humidity values into the start of next week with a
chance of precipitation Monday into Wednesday.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 106 77 106 78 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 105 81 104 81 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 92 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 AM CDT
Sunday for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212.
Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this
evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 AM CDT Sunday for
TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...24
FIRE WEATHER...Fowler
I need to speak to the High Pressure manager. This is unacceptable.
nm
Last edited by DoctorMu on Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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