August 2023
Will believe it when it's falling on my dead lawn.
Unfortunately, the mid to long range 00Z GFS run continues with the idea that our hottest stretch of the year will be the last week or so of August. It depicts the heat ridge settling in over the Central & Southern Plains while circulating very dry air into our region from the northeast. Let the GFS tell it (with the CMC not too far behind), the worst is yet to come for us…
On a positive note, the -PDO in the Eastern Pacific I’ve been harping about all year continues to shrink and is slowly taking on a more +PDO orientation with time. This, in conjunction with a prominent El Niño should theoretically work in our favor in the long term regarding rainfall potential beginning in the 2nd half of September or the 1st half of October while continuing on & off through the remainder of the year into 2024. We shall see.
FOCUS on the PNW area, as there is a trough forecast to move through there in the Saturday-Sunday period, with it's progression having significant implications regarding potentials for pattern change.
IF it's more progressive like the 18z-00zGFS and 00z CMC showed, then that pops the stronger downstream Eastern US troughing that completely screws up the pattern change (well, unless the forecast tropical system throws any curveballs).
ON THE OTHER HAND, if the PNW trough is less progressive like the EURO or ICON, then that allows the ridge to build farther north into the Midwest, and keeps Texas more open to the Gulf for longer (providing better chances of rain overall, regardless of if a system forms).
IF it's more progressive like the 18z-00zGFS and 00z CMC showed, then that pops the stronger downstream Eastern US troughing that completely screws up the pattern change (well, unless the forecast tropical system throws any curveballs).
ON THE OTHER HAND, if the PNW trough is less progressive like the EURO or ICON, then that allows the ridge to build farther north into the Midwest, and keeps Texas more open to the Gulf for longer (providing better chances of rain overall, regardless of if a system forms).
The GFS is a trash model when it comes to daytime mixing (and modelled heat).869MB wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 1:16 am Unfortunately, the mid to long range 00Z GFS run continues with the idea that our hottest stretch of the year will be the last week or so of August. It depicts the heat ridge settling in over the Central & Southern Plains while circulating very dry air into our region from the northeast. Let the GFS tell it (with the CMC not too far behind), the worst is yet to come for us…
SEE that wave in the PNW area? THAT is exactly what will make/break the pattern for Texas: not necessarily for this system, but really the outlook for the rest of the month/early September.
If the wave "cuts-off" or otherwise has slower progression through the PNW, that aids in pumping up heights farther north, and allowing the ridge axis to be farther north for easterly waves in SE Texas. This 12Z NAM shows exactly this ideal outcome at the moment.
HOWEVER, if the wave weakens and progresses faster, that not only suppresses the ridge farther south, but carves out a downstream East Coast trough that stagnates the pattern, and keeps more persistent ridging in Texas. The 12Z CMC is by FAR the ugliest solution for the state right now if verified.
As for the GFS, this current 12Z run so far is actually pretty good. WHY? Because the PNW wave, while still quite progressive, was slow enough/left enough artifact, to pump the Central US ridge north enough to keep SE Texas in the underbelly. The result? Continuous easterly waves rolling on through.
If the wave "cuts-off" or otherwise has slower progression through the PNW, that aids in pumping up heights farther north, and allowing the ridge axis to be farther north for easterly waves in SE Texas. This 12Z NAM shows exactly this ideal outcome at the moment.
HOWEVER, if the wave weakens and progresses faster, that not only suppresses the ridge farther south, but carves out a downstream East Coast trough that stagnates the pattern, and keeps more persistent ridging in Texas. The 12Z CMC is by FAR the ugliest solution for the state right now if verified.
As for the GFS, this current 12Z run so far is actually pretty good. WHY? Because the PNW wave, while still quite progressive, was slow enough/left enough artifact, to pump the Central US ridge north enough to keep SE Texas in the underbelly. The result? Continuous easterly waves rolling on through.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
XUS64 KHGX 161027
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
527 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
A slightly less hot and humid day is in store today as yesterday`s
boundary remains near the coast. High temperatures this afternoon
will still be near 100 degrees for the majority of the area, give or
take a degree or two, with the hottest areas towards the west.
Colorado, Austin, Wharton, inland Jackson, and inland Matagorda
counties do have a Heat Advisory in effect today as the temperatures
rise to near 103 degrees. There may be an isolated shower or
thunderstorm along the coast this afternoon, but conditions were
more conductive yesterday for precipitation and we were only able to
squeak out one lone storm in Galveston County, so I am not too
optimistic we get any today. Dew points this afternoon along and
north of I-10 will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, so the heat will
feel not as bad as it has been the past few weeks.
The low dewpoints today with temperatures rising to near 100 will
lead to very low relative humidity values this afternoon. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect today, but more on that in the Fire
Weather discussion below. Please respect the Burn Bans in effect
across the area.
Unfortunately, the heat returns in earnest on Thursday with most of
the region rising to 103 to 105+ degrees, along with a return to dew
points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A combination of Heat Advisories
and an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for Thursday. Inland
Liberty, Harris, Fort Bend, Wharton, and the inland portions of
Jackson, Matagorda, and Brazoria counties are in the Advisory. The
counties to the north of these counties are in the Excessive Heat
Watch. Overnight lows will be low to mid 70s for most of the area
tonight with the Houston Metro and areas along the coast in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Then most areas will be in the upper 70s to
low 80s Thursday night.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
Models continue to hold the strong mid to upper level ridge over
the Southern Plains on Friday, which will result in conditions
similar to Thursday`s. Expect high temperatures to be between 102
to 107 degrees F for much of the inland portions, between 98 to
101 degrees F for areas near the coasts, and between 94 to 97
degrees along the Barrier Islands. Heat indices will continue to
range between 106 to 111 degrees F, which may warrant the issuance
or extension of Heat Advisories.
During the weekend, the ridge will slowly shift to the north and
this movement looks to continue mainly along the upper levels as
we progress into early next week. As it does so, we could see high
temperatures a few degrees lower; however, they will still be in
the low 100s range. Moreover, heat indices could still be within
Heat Advisory criteria for many. If we are able to shed some of
that pesky subsidence aloft, we could see the development of
isolated showers and thunderstorms over portions of Southeast
Texas on Sunday. An increase in rain chances may occur early next
week as additional low level moisture pushes into the region. There
are significant inconsistencies in the global models for early
next week, in particular with the development of a broad area of
low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico next week, as
mentioned by the National Hurricane Center. Confidence at this
time is low. Therefore, will continue with a model blend with
modest PoPs for that period and adjust as needed. Please continue
to monitor the forecasts during the next few days.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light northerly
to northeasterly winds will turn easterly then southeasterly
through the day as a weak boundary pushes north through the area.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
Light variable winds expected for today. Typical summertime marine
pattern will return tonight into the upcoming weekend with light
onshore winds during the day and light to moderate onshore winds
at night. Seas will generally be between 2 and 4 feet. Winds
could turn easterly early next week into mid week, along with
higher seas. As mentioned by the National Hurricane Center, a
broad area of low pressure could develop over the western Gulf of
Mexico next week. Confidence is low at this time and model
solutions currently have significant inconsistencies, please
continue to monitor the forecasts during the next few days.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most of the area today due
to a combination of extremely dry fuels/vegetation and very low
relative humidities this afternoon. Expect minimum relative humidity
values to be in the teens to low 20s across the area. Like
yesterday, wind speeds will be the limiting factor as speeds will be
generally between 5 and 10 mph with the occasional higher gust.
Relative humidity values rebound tomorrow afternoon south of I-10,
but an additional Fire Weather Watch may be needed across the north
where RH values again drop into low to mid 20s.
Until the fuels recover from the drought, elevated fire danger will
be an issue for the area - especially in the Piney Woods area.
Please respect the Burn Bans that are in effect across the area.
One small flame can lead to big problem.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 74 106 76 / 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 101 78 104 79 / 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 82 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235.
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for TXZ200-
213-226-227-235>237-300-313.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ210-211-226-235-
236.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...24
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
527 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
A slightly less hot and humid day is in store today as yesterday`s
boundary remains near the coast. High temperatures this afternoon
will still be near 100 degrees for the majority of the area, give or
take a degree or two, with the hottest areas towards the west.
Colorado, Austin, Wharton, inland Jackson, and inland Matagorda
counties do have a Heat Advisory in effect today as the temperatures
rise to near 103 degrees. There may be an isolated shower or
thunderstorm along the coast this afternoon, but conditions were
more conductive yesterday for precipitation and we were only able to
squeak out one lone storm in Galveston County, so I am not too
optimistic we get any today. Dew points this afternoon along and
north of I-10 will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, so the heat will
feel not as bad as it has been the past few weeks.
The low dewpoints today with temperatures rising to near 100 will
lead to very low relative humidity values this afternoon. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect today, but more on that in the Fire
Weather discussion below. Please respect the Burn Bans in effect
across the area.
Unfortunately, the heat returns in earnest on Thursday with most of
the region rising to 103 to 105+ degrees, along with a return to dew
points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A combination of Heat Advisories
and an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for Thursday. Inland
Liberty, Harris, Fort Bend, Wharton, and the inland portions of
Jackson, Matagorda, and Brazoria counties are in the Advisory. The
counties to the north of these counties are in the Excessive Heat
Watch. Overnight lows will be low to mid 70s for most of the area
tonight with the Houston Metro and areas along the coast in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Then most areas will be in the upper 70s to
low 80s Thursday night.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
Models continue to hold the strong mid to upper level ridge over
the Southern Plains on Friday, which will result in conditions
similar to Thursday`s. Expect high temperatures to be between 102
to 107 degrees F for much of the inland portions, between 98 to
101 degrees F for areas near the coasts, and between 94 to 97
degrees along the Barrier Islands. Heat indices will continue to
range between 106 to 111 degrees F, which may warrant the issuance
or extension of Heat Advisories.
During the weekend, the ridge will slowly shift to the north and
this movement looks to continue mainly along the upper levels as
we progress into early next week. As it does so, we could see high
temperatures a few degrees lower; however, they will still be in
the low 100s range. Moreover, heat indices could still be within
Heat Advisory criteria for many. If we are able to shed some of
that pesky subsidence aloft, we could see the development of
isolated showers and thunderstorms over portions of Southeast
Texas on Sunday. An increase in rain chances may occur early next
week as additional low level moisture pushes into the region. There
are significant inconsistencies in the global models for early
next week, in particular with the development of a broad area of
low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico next week, as
mentioned by the National Hurricane Center. Confidence at this
time is low. Therefore, will continue with a model blend with
modest PoPs for that period and adjust as needed. Please continue
to monitor the forecasts during the next few days.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light northerly
to northeasterly winds will turn easterly then southeasterly
through the day as a weak boundary pushes north through the area.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
Light variable winds expected for today. Typical summertime marine
pattern will return tonight into the upcoming weekend with light
onshore winds during the day and light to moderate onshore winds
at night. Seas will generally be between 2 and 4 feet. Winds
could turn easterly early next week into mid week, along with
higher seas. As mentioned by the National Hurricane Center, a
broad area of low pressure could develop over the western Gulf of
Mexico next week. Confidence is low at this time and model
solutions currently have significant inconsistencies, please
continue to monitor the forecasts during the next few days.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most of the area today due
to a combination of extremely dry fuels/vegetation and very low
relative humidities this afternoon. Expect minimum relative humidity
values to be in the teens to low 20s across the area. Like
yesterday, wind speeds will be the limiting factor as speeds will be
generally between 5 and 10 mph with the occasional higher gust.
Relative humidity values rebound tomorrow afternoon south of I-10,
but an additional Fire Weather Watch may be needed across the north
where RH values again drop into low to mid 20s.
Until the fuels recover from the drought, elevated fire danger will
be an issue for the area - especially in the Piney Woods area.
Please respect the Burn Bans that are in effect across the area.
One small flame can lead to big problem.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 74 106 76 / 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 101 78 104 79 / 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 82 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235.
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for TXZ200-
213-226-227-235>237-300-313.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ210-211-226-235-
236.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...24
GFS has a storm going to Brownsville while the Euro is northern gulf. Icon brings it here.
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Pretty big fire going on in El Campo.
Lol.
I mean, think about it: the COLD WATER, desert-mountain ringed West Coast is about to sustain a full-blown hurricane, enough to bring rains well into the desert. But "dry air" remains such a problem for the South Central US right next to a LITERAL BATHTUB.
Honestly, the South Central US as a whole (Texas, and surrounding states) is just this weird region of comical dryness during summer. No logic, no rhyme or reason whatsoever: if one didn't know any better, it'd be as if God cursed the area. Louisiana is the most classically "wet summer" humid subtropical part of the South Central US, but the dryness this summer has had it's effects on that state as well: New Orleans caught a lucky break yesterday, but Baton Rouge, Lafayette, etc still have yet to record a drop of rain this month.
Honestly, the South Central US as a whole (Texas, and surrounding states) is just this weird region of comical dryness during summer. No logic, no rhyme or reason whatsoever: if one didn't know any better, it'd be as if God cursed the area. Louisiana is the most classically "wet summer" humid subtropical part of the South Central US, but the dryness this summer has had it's effects on that state as well: New Orleans caught a lucky break yesterday, but Baton Rouge, Lafayette, etc still have yet to record a drop of rain this month.
Today the DP got down to 45°F in College Station. Temp cracked 104°F but the heat index never made it to 100°F. Almost sorry I missed it!
The 18z GFS has one west coast hurricane and one east coast hurricane.
OTOH, CMC has 2 tropical systems in the Western Gulf, including 1 hitting the mid Texas coast. ICON also has a mid Texas coast weak tropical system.
The 18z GFS has one west coast hurricane and one east coast hurricane.
OTOH, CMC has 2 tropical systems in the Western Gulf, including 1 hitting the mid Texas coast. ICON also has a mid Texas coast weak tropical system.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 171147
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023
Hope you were able to enjoy the couple days of not-as-oppressive
heat most of SE Texas was able to enjoy because the heat and
humidity returns today. High temperatures today are expected to
reach dangerous level again with highs around 105 degrees expected
generally along and north of I-10, where an Excessive Heat Warning
is in effect. Areas along the Coast are in a Heat Advisory today
with temperatures rising to near 100 to 103 degrees with heat
indices up to 105 to 108 degrees. Temperatures tonight will be in
the mid to upper 70s for most of the region, though the Houston
Metro and immediate coast will be in the low 80s.
Ever so slightly less hot conditions (I refuse to say "cooler" when
still talking about triple digit heat) is expected on Friday. As of
right now, the Excessive Heat Warning is pulled northwards a couple
of counties to be mainly for areas north and west of Harris County.
Harris County and the inner coastal counties are in the Heat
Advisory on Friday with the areas right along the coast with no Heat
related hazards in effect. This layout of the Warnings/Advisories
may change if guidance begins to come in a little hotter. Generally,
areas in the Excessive Heat Warning can expect high temperatures in
the 105 to 107 degree range, while areas in the Heat Advisory will
be in the 102 to 104 degree range. Friday night will be similar to
tonight with most areas seeing low temperatures in the mid/upper 70s
to low 80s.
In addition to the heat, elevated fire danger remains in store for
the Piney Woods and portions of the Brazos Valley. Fire Weather
Watch is in store for these areas both today and tomorrow with more
of that in the Fire Weather Discussion below.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023
Dangerously hot conditions is to be expected during the weekend as
the mid to upper level ridge remains over the Southern Plains and
pulses of low level moisture move into Southeastern Texas. The
highs on Saturday will range between 101 to 107 degrees F for
most locations inland, between 97 to 101 degrees F for areas near
the coasts, and between 93 to 97 degrees for the Barrier Islands.
The heat indices will be between 108 to 112 degrees F. On Sunday,
although conditions will be similar, many locations along and
north of I-10 could see the highs increase a degree or two.
Therefore, additional Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
will likely be issued throughout the weekend. Make sure to make
the appropriate adjustments or preparations if you plan to work or
spend time outdoors.
Rain chances could return as early as Sunday afternoon if the mid
to upper level ridge moves to the north as the models have been
suggesting in the last few runs. If it does so, isolated showers
and thunderstorms could develop over areas south of I-10 as low
level moisture increases to around 1.60-1.70 inches. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms could increase early next week as the
ridge continues to slowly push northward. In addition, a surge of
low level moisture possibly associated to a broad area of low
pressure could result in better chances for showers and
thunderstorms over portions of Southeast Texas late Monday into
late Tuesday. Although it is too early to tell how this low will
develop, the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (2 AM issuance)
continues with a 20% chance of formation for this feature through
the next 7 days.
Regardless of formation, if we do get some much needed rainfall
for our area, we could see slightly "cooler" temperatures with
highs currently forecast to be in the upper 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts during the next
few days for more details.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023
Got some patchy, but occasionally dense, fog around LBX and SGR
overnight, and this will linger through sunrise. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the day today with southwesterly
into southeasterly winds around 10kts developing this afternoon.
Winds lower this evening to below 5kts, and there will be a chance
again for some patchy fog near LBX and SGR.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023
A typical summertime pattern can be expected with light to
moderate S-SW flow and seas of 2 to 4 feet through the upcoming
weekend. Winds could increase and turn easterly next week and
higher seas or swells could move into the coastal Gulf waters as a
broad area of low pressure moves across the Texas coasts.
Confidence in the development of this low remains low. The NHC Tropical
Outlook (2 AM issuance) continues with a 20% chance of formation
during the next few days. Please continue to monitor the latest
forecasts during the next few days.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
While relative humidity values will be a bit higher today, we can
still expect afternoon minimum RH`s to be in the 20 to 25 percent
range areas along and north of I-10. While winds will be relatively
light, between 5 and 10 mph, the extremely dry fuels and vegetation
across the Piney Woods region and northern Brazos Valley in
combination with the low RH has led to the need for another Fire
Weather Watch today and tomorrow. There will be a slow climb in
humidity through the weekend, but additional watches may be
necessary. There is a slight chance of precipitation next week,
which will be very beneficial to the dry grounds, but will also
bring increased risk of fires sparked by lightning.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 105 76 105 75 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 104 79 103 79 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 84 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227.
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>199-210>212.
Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ200-213-226-
227-235>238-300-313.
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ214-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...24
FIRE WEATHER...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 171147
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023
Hope you were able to enjoy the couple days of not-as-oppressive
heat most of SE Texas was able to enjoy because the heat and
humidity returns today. High temperatures today are expected to
reach dangerous level again with highs around 105 degrees expected
generally along and north of I-10, where an Excessive Heat Warning
is in effect. Areas along the Coast are in a Heat Advisory today
with temperatures rising to near 100 to 103 degrees with heat
indices up to 105 to 108 degrees. Temperatures tonight will be in
the mid to upper 70s for most of the region, though the Houston
Metro and immediate coast will be in the low 80s.
Ever so slightly less hot conditions (I refuse to say "cooler" when
still talking about triple digit heat) is expected on Friday. As of
right now, the Excessive Heat Warning is pulled northwards a couple
of counties to be mainly for areas north and west of Harris County.
Harris County and the inner coastal counties are in the Heat
Advisory on Friday with the areas right along the coast with no Heat
related hazards in effect. This layout of the Warnings/Advisories
may change if guidance begins to come in a little hotter. Generally,
areas in the Excessive Heat Warning can expect high temperatures in
the 105 to 107 degree range, while areas in the Heat Advisory will
be in the 102 to 104 degree range. Friday night will be similar to
tonight with most areas seeing low temperatures in the mid/upper 70s
to low 80s.
In addition to the heat, elevated fire danger remains in store for
the Piney Woods and portions of the Brazos Valley. Fire Weather
Watch is in store for these areas both today and tomorrow with more
of that in the Fire Weather Discussion below.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023
Dangerously hot conditions is to be expected during the weekend as
the mid to upper level ridge remains over the Southern Plains and
pulses of low level moisture move into Southeastern Texas. The
highs on Saturday will range between 101 to 107 degrees F for
most locations inland, between 97 to 101 degrees F for areas near
the coasts, and between 93 to 97 degrees for the Barrier Islands.
The heat indices will be between 108 to 112 degrees F. On Sunday,
although conditions will be similar, many locations along and
north of I-10 could see the highs increase a degree or two.
Therefore, additional Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
will likely be issued throughout the weekend. Make sure to make
the appropriate adjustments or preparations if you plan to work or
spend time outdoors.
Rain chances could return as early as Sunday afternoon if the mid
to upper level ridge moves to the north as the models have been
suggesting in the last few runs. If it does so, isolated showers
and thunderstorms could develop over areas south of I-10 as low
level moisture increases to around 1.60-1.70 inches. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms could increase early next week as the
ridge continues to slowly push northward. In addition, a surge of
low level moisture possibly associated to a broad area of low
pressure could result in better chances for showers and
thunderstorms over portions of Southeast Texas late Monday into
late Tuesday. Although it is too early to tell how this low will
develop, the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (2 AM issuance)
continues with a 20% chance of formation for this feature through
the next 7 days.
Regardless of formation, if we do get some much needed rainfall
for our area, we could see slightly "cooler" temperatures with
highs currently forecast to be in the upper 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts during the next
few days for more details.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023
Got some patchy, but occasionally dense, fog around LBX and SGR
overnight, and this will linger through sunrise. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the day today with southwesterly
into southeasterly winds around 10kts developing this afternoon.
Winds lower this evening to below 5kts, and there will be a chance
again for some patchy fog near LBX and SGR.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023
A typical summertime pattern can be expected with light to
moderate S-SW flow and seas of 2 to 4 feet through the upcoming
weekend. Winds could increase and turn easterly next week and
higher seas or swells could move into the coastal Gulf waters as a
broad area of low pressure moves across the Texas coasts.
Confidence in the development of this low remains low. The NHC Tropical
Outlook (2 AM issuance) continues with a 20% chance of formation
during the next few days. Please continue to monitor the latest
forecasts during the next few days.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
While relative humidity values will be a bit higher today, we can
still expect afternoon minimum RH`s to be in the 20 to 25 percent
range areas along and north of I-10. While winds will be relatively
light, between 5 and 10 mph, the extremely dry fuels and vegetation
across the Piney Woods region and northern Brazos Valley in
combination with the low RH has led to the need for another Fire
Weather Watch today and tomorrow. There will be a slow climb in
humidity through the weekend, but additional watches may be
necessary. There is a slight chance of precipitation next week,
which will be very beneficial to the dry grounds, but will also
bring increased risk of fires sparked by lightning.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 105 76 105 75 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 104 79 103 79 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 84 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227.
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>199-210>212.
Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ200-213-226-
227-235>238-300-313.
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ214-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...24
FIRE WEATHER...Fowler
Update from Jeff Lindner:
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories for all of the area today into the weekend.
After a brief reprieve of drier air into the region late Tuesday through Wednesday evening, southerly winds have returned along with muggy dewpoints and a more humid air mass will continue to move into the area from the south today. With the ridge of high pressure building back across Texas today into the weekend afternoon high temperatures will push into the 100-107 degree range for inland areas. Heat index values of 108-116 degrees will be common across the area today into the weekend.
College Station has recorded 38 straight days at 100 or above (previous record was 30 in 1998)
BUSH IAH has recorded 18 straight days at 100 or above (record is 33 in 2011)
Critically dry conditions remain across the entire area and fire weather concerns are in place. Luckily, generally light winds of 5-10mph are helping hinder rapid forward progression on any fires even with extremely low afternoon humidity values of less then 25% in many areas. Similar conditions with an increase in humidity are expected into the weekend and early next week.
Gulf of Mexico:
A weak tropical wave located north of Puerto Rico this morning will move westward toward the southern Bahamas and southern FL over the next 2-3 days. This wave has disorganized areas of convection associated with it at this time. The wave axis will move into the southeast/eastern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into early Monday and then come under the influence of building high pressure over the Midwest which will result in a west to west-northwest track across the Gulf of Mexico toward the western or northwest Gulf coast by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
Global forecast models along with some of their ensemble members continue to indicate the potential for a broad and weak surface reflection to develop with this wave. The guidance clustering is generally toward the lower and middle Texas coast with the ECWMF on the northern end of the guidance and the CMC on the south end. Overall, there has been little change in the various global solutions over the last 24 hours with development chances or track.
While upper level winds look generally favorable for development along with very warm Gulf of Mexico water temperatures, lingering dry air along the US Gulf coast combined with the fast forward motion of the wave may hinder development. Conditions appear to become most favorable just prior to landfall along the Texas coast and development if any may be very near the coast just prior to landfall, in part due to the board nature of the wave interacting with the concave curvature of the Texas coast.
Regardless, if the feature makes landfall as a tropical wave, tropical depression, or weak tropical storm the impacts will be nearly the same….much needed rainfall for parched areas of coastal Texas and possibly inland central and southwest Texas. Moisture will start to increase as early as late Sunday, but more likely into Monday and Tuesday especially along the coast. How much ground the sprawling high pressure over the Midwest gives will determine how far inland rain chances will extend.
Given the various uncertainties at play it is best to monitor forecasts daily.
National Hurricane Center indicates a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Monday-Wednesday period.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories for all of the area today into the weekend.
After a brief reprieve of drier air into the region late Tuesday through Wednesday evening, southerly winds have returned along with muggy dewpoints and a more humid air mass will continue to move into the area from the south today. With the ridge of high pressure building back across Texas today into the weekend afternoon high temperatures will push into the 100-107 degree range for inland areas. Heat index values of 108-116 degrees will be common across the area today into the weekend.
College Station has recorded 38 straight days at 100 or above (previous record was 30 in 1998)
BUSH IAH has recorded 18 straight days at 100 or above (record is 33 in 2011)
Critically dry conditions remain across the entire area and fire weather concerns are in place. Luckily, generally light winds of 5-10mph are helping hinder rapid forward progression on any fires even with extremely low afternoon humidity values of less then 25% in many areas. Similar conditions with an increase in humidity are expected into the weekend and early next week.
Gulf of Mexico:
A weak tropical wave located north of Puerto Rico this morning will move westward toward the southern Bahamas and southern FL over the next 2-3 days. This wave has disorganized areas of convection associated with it at this time. The wave axis will move into the southeast/eastern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into early Monday and then come under the influence of building high pressure over the Midwest which will result in a west to west-northwest track across the Gulf of Mexico toward the western or northwest Gulf coast by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
Global forecast models along with some of their ensemble members continue to indicate the potential for a broad and weak surface reflection to develop with this wave. The guidance clustering is generally toward the lower and middle Texas coast with the ECWMF on the northern end of the guidance and the CMC on the south end. Overall, there has been little change in the various global solutions over the last 24 hours with development chances or track.
While upper level winds look generally favorable for development along with very warm Gulf of Mexico water temperatures, lingering dry air along the US Gulf coast combined with the fast forward motion of the wave may hinder development. Conditions appear to become most favorable just prior to landfall along the Texas coast and development if any may be very near the coast just prior to landfall, in part due to the board nature of the wave interacting with the concave curvature of the Texas coast.
Regardless, if the feature makes landfall as a tropical wave, tropical depression, or weak tropical storm the impacts will be nearly the same….much needed rainfall for parched areas of coastal Texas and possibly inland central and southwest Texas. Moisture will start to increase as early as late Sunday, but more likely into Monday and Tuesday especially along the coast. How much ground the sprawling high pressure over the Midwest gives will determine how far inland rain chances will extend.
Given the various uncertainties at play it is best to monitor forecasts daily.
National Hurricane Center indicates a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Monday-Wednesday period.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
Bring it. I hope whatever comes sits for 2-3 days over here.
I doubt it. From what I understand it should be moving quickly and we don’t even know if it’ll even come here yet and if it does there’s a decent chance it’ll come in dry. I wouldn’t get your hopes up.
Correct. A relatively fast forward movement is one of the very reasons no significant strengthening/organization is forecasted for the blob.
That and it’s going to struggle with dry air. Dry air can be a storm killer.Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Thu Aug 17, 2023 11:20 am
Correct. A relatively fast forward movement is one of the very reasons no significant strengthening/organization is forecasted for the blob.