2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Stratton20]

It appears the 18z Eps guidance has trended north again

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like the tropics are heating up.

[Stratton20]

GFS has a stronger system but keeps it well south of SE texas unfortunately, the system consolidates rather fast on the GFS outside of the zone of development, however the US ridge is retrograding west at the same time the system is moving west, preventing any gain in latitude

[weatherguy425]

General setup leading up to this system includes an anomalously strong ridge pumping up across the middle of the nation. Ridge strength, position and possible retreat as the system approaches… all will be important factors to any future track.

[Scott747]

Well the long range 0z gfs is going to end up entertaining with that setup.

[Scott747]

0z Euro changes things up a little. Big shift n before it enters the Gom and then moves due w near New Orleans and across La. into Beaumont with some decent vorticity but not fully organized.

[Stratton20]

00z EPS coming in much more aggressive and further north fwiw

[user:null]

00z EPS coming in much more aggressive and further north fwiw

FOCUS on the PNW area, as there is a trough forecast to move through there in the Saturday-Sunday period, with its progression having significant implications regarding potentials for pattern change.

IF it's more progressive like the 18z-00zGFS and 00z CMC showed, then that pops the stronger downstream Eastern US troughing that more likely completely screws up the pattern change.

ON THE OTHER HAND, if the PNW trough is less progressive/leaves leftover energy like the EURO or ICON, then that allows the ridge to build farther north into the Midwest, and keeps Texas more open to the Gulf for longer (providing better chances of rain overall, regardless of if a system forms).

You can see this with the recent 06zGFS: the PNW trough is a little less progressive/leaves a little more artifact off the West Coast. That ticks the Central US ridge a bit more north, and gives better chances of rain in SE Texas early next week than the prior two runs.

Technically it's not a guarantee, since the 12z EURO also digs the PNW wave, only to still suppress the Gulf system. So, more than likely, wherever the circulation develops will be more crucial. But the above factors are still worth mentioning.

[Cpv17]

That’s interesting to see some EPS members down into the 980’s.

[Cpv17]

The 6z GFS tracks to the vorticity into the mid TX coast but it’s really weak and doesn’t amount to much of anything & has very little rain even associated with it.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The 6z GFS tracks to the vorticity into the mid TX coast but it’s really weak and doesn’t amount to much of anything & has very little rain even associated with it.

Please don’t be Don’s limp noodle descendant…

[Cpv17]

The 6z GFS tracks to the vorticity into the mid TX coast but it’s really weak and doesn’t amount to much of anything & has very little rain even associated with it.

Please don’t be Don’s limp noodle descendant…

Wouldn’t surprise me.

[cperk]

I felt a lot better about rain chances with yesterday's modeling.

[don]

The inconsistencies between model runs let's us know we still have a ways to go before we know how this will pan out.(As an example Between runs yesterday the GFS went from an open wave to a Moderate tropical storm in last night's 0z run then back to a open wave with the 6z run this morning LOL)

[Stormlover2020]

Exactly, icon has tropical storm landfall south of Galveston

[Stratton20]

Yep 12z ICON mas a decent tropical storm fwiw
GFS shows weak wave going into corpus, but almost no rain for se texas
CMC sticking with N. mexico track

[user:null]

Yep 12z ICON mas a decent tropical storm fwiw
GFS shows weak wave going into corpus, but almost no rain for se texas
CMC sticking with N. mexico track

That wave in the PNW definitely makes all the difference. Not necessarily for this storm track (as that depends on where in the Gulf/Carribean initialized), but more for the downstream pattern the rest of the month. The good solutions like this NAM12K 12z below have a slower progression through the PNW (pumping the ridge farther north), whereas the bad solutions are far more progressive (suppressing the ridge farther south, making it more likely to stagnate over Texas again). As you'll see, the CMC solution is uglier for the state versus the GFS and ICON so far.

[weatherguy425]

Kind of mute at the moment, but 12Z GEFS support for development is even weaker; just a few members. It goes to show that the setup remains somewhat volatile and it'll be a bit longer before any real confidence in a solution grows.

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 and support from the EPS has grown even more lol

[Stratton20]

Also very interesting to see models agreeing on a CAG setup for the gulf down the road, that is very unusual for august