August 2023

[Cpv17]

Back to back days of 104°F for the high here..oof

[Cromagnum]

Jackshit as expected.

[Dls2010r]

Almost peed my pants CPV17

[Dls2010r]

Sorry I meant cro!!!’ I can relate and understand.

[sswinney]

We’ll it’s raining in League City.

[vci_guy2003]

You beat me to it! Rain and thundering in league city praise the lord!

[sswinney]

You beat me to it! Rain and thundering in league city praise the lord!

Happy dance

[djmike]

View 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Disturbance 3: 20% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 7 Days
As of 8:00 pm EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 ...
Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves generally
westward, potentially nearing the western Gulf of Mexico coastline
in about a week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE

[djmike]

Probably be a south Texas wave and we end up getting Nada. Watch! Thats how our luck has been lately…

[Pas_Bon]

We’ll it’s raining in League City.

I got about 20 drops here and a healthy smattering of lightning off of Hobbs Rd.

[Katdaddy]

The yard got .25” over here in Rustic Oaks in W League City. 2 cloud to ground lightning bolt and the sun shining the entire 10 minutes.

[Cromagnum]

I'm hoping for a flood and soon. If nothing else to try to drown the damned chinch bugs.

[Cpv17]

I'm hoping for a flood and soon. If nothing else to try to drown the damned chinch bugs.

Armadillos have been outrageous this summer. Having to wake up at random times of the night to try to get rid of them but still hardly no luck. They’re freaking smart.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 good luck catching those little fellas haha, ive tried before and those things are fast

[869MB]

I'm not sure what's up with this latest 18Z GFS run but it is forecasting some of the hottest temperatures SE TX has seen all year the final week of August. Very disturbing forecast even if it's incorrect, considering just how brutal this summer has been to us. I'm just glad this GFS forecast is way out in fantasy land and not within the next few days...Smh in disbelief...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Summer sucks y’all

[TexasBreeze]

The heat is made worse probably as a result of all of those tropical systems the model has going north along the east coast.

[869MB]

The heat is made worse probably as a result of all of those tropical systems the model has going north along the east coast.

Not really, because if you analyze the profiles upstream from SETX, or to the northeast of our region (the winds in the lower and mid-levels are coming from the NE on our sounding I attached above), their temperatures are not nearly as warm as ours. Now I can understand tropical systems off to our east filtering drier air into our region and some of that air compressing and warming but not to the degree the GFS is showing. Here is a sounding from the Louisiana/Mississippi border around the same time and their profile is dry but not nearly as hot as ours...

[Cpv17]

The heat is made worse from very dry soils and a lack of moisture in vegetation.

[Ptarmigan]

Rain could return next week.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 152343
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
643 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023

The weak cold front has made its way through most of Southeast Texas
and currently sits just south of the I-10 corridor. Some of you
are feeling the dryness behind the front as lower dew points
filter in...and some of you are wondering what cold front as it
still feels like 110-115°F outside. Moisture converging along the
frontal boundary along with compressional heating have lead to
elevated temperatures/heat indices near and south of I-10. For
instance, as of 3pm CDT here are some temps/heat indices: City of
Houston (IAH) is at 104°F with a heat index of 114°F, Galveston is
at 93°F with a heat index of 112°F, and Palacios is at 98°F with a
heat index of 117°F! As a result, Excessive Heat Warnings/Heat
Advisories remain in effect for areas along and south of I-10
through this evening.

Further up north where dew points have reached the 50s, we`re
seeing temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s BUT the heat
index values are only in the mid to upper 90s (lucky!!!). The
drier air is the difference! With the frontal boundary along the
coast, it may serve as a focal point for isolated convection to
develop later this afternoon/evening as PW values continue to
increase to 1.9-2.1". It`s worth mentioning that the 12Z CAMs have
backed off quite a bit in terms of coverage of the potential
convection, so I`ve trimmed PoPs back to just 20%. If anything
manages to develop, it`ll quickly dissipate shortly after sunset.

Those lower dew points will continue funneling in overnight leading
to low temperatures reaching the upper 60s to low 70s across the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. By
Wednesday morning, dew points will range from the low 50s in the
Brazos Valley to the low 60s around the Houston metro area to the
low 70s along the coast. So...this may be the most pleasant
morning we`ve felt in quite a while! It`ll be a nice (albeit
short) break from the usual warmth and mugginess we`ve felt the
past few weeks in the mornings. We`ll still see daytime highs top
out in the upper 90s to low 100s, but it`ll be a dry heat! PW
values across most of the area will be down into the 0.7-1.0"
range, and for perspective the 10th percentile is ~1.28"...so
we`ll be unseasonably dry. Of course, this creates issues for our
already elevated fire weather conditions (more on that in the Fire
Weather section). Temperatures for our southwestern counties will
top out in the 102-104°F range, so a Heat Advisory will be in
effect through Wednesday evening for them. Elsewhere, including
the Houston metro area, we will not have any heat alerts in
effect. However, there will be a Fire Weather Watch in effect for
most of Southeast Texas on Wednesday due to dangerously low
relative humidity values (<20%).

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday night as
southerly flow returns. Additionally, as the upper level trough that
brought today`s front moves out of the area late Wednesday, our
old friend looks to make a return. Here`s a hint...it rhymes with
neat-home. I don`t want to spoil too much from the long term, but
let`s just say you should enjoy the drier air and the freedom
from heat alerts (for most of us at least) while you can
tomorrow. You should still continue to practice heat safety today,
especially those near and south of I-10 where heat index values
are currently exceeding 113°F.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023

Mid/upper level heights are expected to increase 2-3dm Thursday-
Friday due to a building 596-598dm 500mb ridge that is projected to
be centered over Oklahoma and northern Texas. In addition, global
ensembles indicate an 850mb temperature increase from ~low-20s
centigrade to ~mid-20s during this time frame. With resuming onshore
flow pushing higher dew points northward, expect Thursday-Friday to
be very hot with increasing humidity. Actual inland temperatures
could surpass 105F in many areas, especially north of I-10. Only
areas near the coast find themselves under 100F in our temp grids.
Overnight lows are expected to range from the mid-70s to low-80s.
Indeed a dangerously hot end to the work week.

Much like yesterday, global models and their ensembles suggest a
northward progression of the aforementioned ridge. This could allow
for an upper-air pattern that would open the door to disturbances
entering our region from the east, increasing PoPs and potentially
less hot temperatures. Unfortunately, today`s model data is a little
slower with that northward progression. We still show very low PoPs
near the coast on Saturday with 15-25 PoPs over much of the CWA on
Sunday. However, temps are not expected to change much going into
the weekend. If anything, a continued humidity increase has the
potential to make temps feel even hotter.

It is difficult to tell if the high will shift far enough north to
allow for more westward propagating shortwaves and troughs to enter
the region resulting in a decent chance of rain by Monday and
Tuesday. It is possible that these disturbances will be suppressed
farther south, limiting PoPs and keeping temps very hot. Hopefully
we can muster a farther north ridge, bringing those temps down and
increasing our PoPs. For now, we have 40-50 PoPs over our southern
counties on Monday-Tuesday with 20-40 PoPs farther north. Latest 12Z
global guidance suggest lower PoPs, but we`ll hold on to a little
hope for now. As for temperatures, the long range is not terribly
optimistic with Monday`s highs still in the triple digits for most
inland areas. Early outlook for Tuesday is a little less hot. But
there are no strong signals for heat relief just yet.

Fall will arrive one day my friends. Until then, keep practicing
heat safety!

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023

Generally northerly winds at all sites, with exception of GLS and
LBX where winds remain southerly to southeasterly. A few showers
have popped up around coastal terminals, but should die off in the
next hour or so. Winds will be light and variable overnight,
becoming light out of the east Wednesday morning. Winds will
become more northeasterly once more during the afternoon hours.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023

Variable light to moderate winds through Wednesday will become
consistently onshore by Thursday and into early next week. An
isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out today or tomorrow due
to the presence of a weak boundary. There may also be isolated
showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Seas of 2-3 feet are
expected through the weekend. By early next week, a disturbance
could increase seas, PoPs, and winds. For now, most guidance keeps
the bulk of the disturbance well south of our waters. Winds early
next week are expected to become more easterly due to the presence
of the disturbance.

Self

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023

A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect through this evening for our
northern counties due to very low minimum RH values behind the
passage of a weak frontal boundary earlier today. RH values will
drop as low at 20-25% this afternoon across the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods. Even though winds remain below criteria for a Red Flag
Warning, the critically to extremely dry fuels along with extreme
fire behavior already seen in recent wildfires in these areas
prompted the Fire Weather Watch for today. For Wednesday, even drier
air will filter in and spread further south across the region with
RH values as low as 15-20% for most of Southeast Texas, but
especially for areas west of I-45. As a result, another Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Wednesday afternoon that extends from
Houston County down to northern Jackson County (and does include
inland Harris County).

Extreme caution should be taken if working outdoors with any
flammable materials. Wind directions will be fairly variable through
Wednesday night. Please keep in mind that all of the counties in
Southeast Texas are under a burn ban, so be sure to follow your
local ordinances. Forecast fire danger from the Texas A&M Forest
Service remains high to very high for areas north of I-10 through
the week. Additionally, forecast fuel dryness is expected to worsen
over the next few days and go from critically dry to extremely dry
across most of the area by Wednesday.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70 101  73 106 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  78 101  77 104 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  82  91  82  93 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>198.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ199-200-212-213.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ210-211.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-
     226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ226-235-236.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self