2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Cpv17]

Looks like the UKMET has joined the party.

Which party are you talking about? Inquiring minds want to know

It has a developing system entering the Caribbean in about a week from now, similar to the Euro.

[Stratton20]

Holy guacamole that GFS run is something else, that run takes the cake for the most insane tropical GFS rub ive ever seen

[Cpv17]

Holy guacamole that GFS run is something else, that run takes the cake for the most insane tropical GFS rub ive ever seen

The 0z GEFS should be quite interesting.

[sambucol]

When does it run Cpv?

[Stratton20]

Its currently through hour 318, i definitely see some stronger members on this run, euro will be out in about 50 minutes

[brazoriatx]

More model hype. I'll believe it when I see it

[Stratton20]

Man that 12z CMC run is what SE texas could use, weak tropical storm into corpus at day 10, get some good soaking rain bands, nothing crazy in terms of wind and surge, perfect scenario for se texas

[sambucol]

Man that 12z CMC run is what SE texas could use, weak tropical storm into corpus at day 10, get some good soaking rain bands, nothing crazy in terms of wind and surge, perfect scenario for se texas

Did the CMC show anything tropical coming into Texas before this run? Just wondering about a trend.

[Stratton20]

sambucol the last few runs had a system going into mexico, so it has been showing something in the W. GULF for several runs now, this is the first texas run though, will see what the euro shows

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m not bullish on a Texas cane hit. Yeah, we could get something weak, but I’d put the odds of a cane hitting Texas at <10% the rest of this season.

[Cpv17]

The tune today on S2K is they don’t really expect an active season. The impression I get from there sounds like most are expecting a near normal season with most action staying away from the Gulf and Caribbean. It’s actually kinda depressing going on there because I for one want some damn rain and the only way to get it is from the tropics, it seems.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 ive joined that site haha, but yeah it does seem like thats what they think, we got a long ways to go though, but i have to agree, until el nino really sets in we just have to hope we can get a weak wave or a tropical storm to give us some drought bustin rains, as i really dont see any other way of getting widespread rains right now

[don]

We'll need to keep an eye on a tropical wave next week that models move into the western gulf and potentially towards the Texas coast. EURO TC probabilities.

ea2.jpg

[Stratton20]

Don yep been noticing that , definitely interesting, also check out that signal on the GEFS for the end of the month! Holy cow!

12z EURO consolidates a weak system just before landfall along the middle texas coast

[Rip76]

We'll need to keep an eye on a tropical wave next week that models move into the western gulf and potentially towards the Texas coast. EURO TC probabilities.

ea2.jpg

Let’s just hope this high doesn’t “Don,” whatever may come our way.

[Cpv17]

Don yep been noticing that , definitely interesting, also check out that signal on the GEFS for the end of the month! Holy cow!

12z EURO consolidates a weak system just before landfall along the middle texas coast

That’s the most active signal I’ve seen all year for our area but it’s always long range so I don’t really believe it.

[Cpv17]

We'll need to keep an eye on a tropical wave next week that models move into the western gulf and potentially towards the Texas coast. EURO TC probabilities.

ea2.jpg

Let’s just hope this high doesn’t “Don,” whatever may come our way.

The 12z Euro has a TD or a very weak TS coming towards us but it only gives us 1-2” of rain… so not much moisture with it. So yeah, the Don thing makes sense but let’s hope we can at least get that. But I wouldn’t get your hopes up that something even comes here yet. That’s a long ways out.

[Stratton20]

Seems like the CPC has bought in on the idea of some western gulf mischief next week

[don]

12Z EURO with a decent Tropical Low moving into the middle Texas coast.

Screenshot 2023-08-13 at 15-30-39 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

[/attachment]Screenshot 2023-08-13 at 15-30-18 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png[/attachment][attachment=1][attachment=1]Screenshot 2023-08-13 at 15-30-18 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

[weatherguy425]

We'll need to keep an eye on a tropical wave next week that models move into the western gulf and potentially towards the Texas coast. EURO TC probabilities.

ea2.jpg

Let’s just hope this high doesn’t “Don,” whatever may come our way.

The 12z Euro has a TD or a very weak TS coming towards us but it only gives us 1-2” of rain… so not much moisture with it. So yeah, the Don thing makes sense but let’s hope we can at least get that. But I wouldn’t get your hopes up that something even comes here yet. That’s a long ways out.

Everything we see at this range is being taken with a grain of salt. That being said, this isn't the same scenario as Don. The model - taken verbatim, does has some dry air over the state, but isn't the primary reason for relatively low QPF.