XUS64 KHGX 021032
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
Dangerous heat continues to be the main scoop as temperatures topped
out in the 101-106°F range on Tuesday afternoon, and will be around
the same this afternoon minus a couple of degrees. An Excessive Heat
Warning/Heat Advisory continues through this evening, but it`s
essentially a lock to see at least a Heat Advisory extended into
Thursday. On the bright side, today is National Ice Cream Sandwich
Day, which is the perfect snack for cooling down with the extreme
temperatures outside. Speaking of ice cream, there is a possibility
that some of you could see a few sprinkles in the afternoon hours,
but for most of us it`ll be the same ol` vanilla forecast of
straight heat that`ll make us feel like we`re melting after spending
~5 seconds outside. The forecast certainly isn`t sweet as the
dangerous heat will continue into early next week, so we have quite
the rocky road ahead of us. Alright...I`ll get to the pint here.
Ridging aloft continues as a ~598 dam midlevel high ("heatdome")
persists over TX bringing us the dangerous temperatures we`ve seen
over the past few days. The heatdome essentially remains in place
throughout the entire short term period, but there will be a few
minor differences here and there. By this afternoon, a blob of
increased moisture moves in from the east and increases PW values to
1.8"-2.1" by this afternoon. This`ll do two things...increase
humidity and slightly increase rain chances for our far eastern
locations. Humidity will be a bit higher this afternoon, so you`ll
notice that it`s a bit more sweltry out there. The increased
moisture will lead to temperatures being a couple of degrees less
(doesn`t feel right to use the world "cooler") than what we saw
Tuesday. All that being said, temperatures will still range in the
100-105°F range with heat index values in the 107-114°F range. 00Z
CAMs depict that some of the convection that develops over LA could
nudge into our far eastern areas late this afternoon, but it`ll be
moving into an increasingly subsident region.
Thursday will be about the same, but a few degrees less than today`s
temperatures due to the gradually increasing humidity. So, even
though max temperatures will range from 98-103°F, we`ll still see
heat index values in the 108-112°F range. You can go ahead and lock
in at least a Heat Advisory for Thursday. I kept in a ~20% chance of
rain for Thursday as well on the off chance that a rogue shower is
able to overcome the subsidence inversion aloft (~800-750mb) and the
abundance of sinking air from the midlevel high being overhead. The
best chances of seeing anything develop will be near or south of the
I-10 corridor in the afternoon hours along the sea breeze. Another
slight difference for Thursday will be the winds. Winds on Thursday
will be a tad bit breezier due to a tighter pressure gradient as a
weak surface low develops near the TX/OK border. So, although the
forecast can be labeled as just "hot", there are at least a few
subtleties that will cause some slight variations.
With heat alerts (Heat Advisory and/or Excessive Heat Warning)
likely persisting throughout the week, please continue to keep heat
safety at the top of your mind. Know the signs of heat related
illnesses, know the locations of the nearest cooling centers, drink
plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the
heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of
the day, wear light clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS
look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as
well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is
too hot for their paws. Stay safe, stay cool, and stay hydrated.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
It will continue to be hot as we complete the first week of August with
inland high temperatures in an upper 90s to low 100s range and heat
index values generally in a 108 to 112 range. These numbers in combination
with heat index values near the coast around 108 will support continued
heat advisories as mid/upper level ridging remains in control, even
with its slight westward shift. Low rain chances will remain in the
Friday through Sunday forecast, mainly near and along parts of the
coast and coastal counties, but even most of these areas will stay
dry. Monday/Tuesday look promising for possible rains and slightly
lower high temperatures if the ridge can shift far enough to the west
and allow for disturbances to sag southward along its eastern edge
and into parts of our area. If ridging remains too strong for these
disturbances to get close to us, then little heat relief can be expected.
Continue to practice heat safety!
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
Patchy fog has developed around LBX early this morning and should
dissipate by ~14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the TAF period with winds starting out light and
southwesterly then becoming a bit breezier and southeasterly in
the afternoon. Winds become light and variable again overnight
with models pointing towards a brief round of MVFR ceilings around
CLL and another round of patchy fog at LBX early Thursday morning.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with 1 to 3 foot seas should prevail
through the next several days. Small craft may need to exercise caution
during the overnight periods when the winds could increase to around
15 knots. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.
42
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high and record high minimum temperatures for today are...
- CLL... 105 (last set in 2011) and 81 (set in 1914)
- IAH... 104 (set in 1998) and 82 (set in 2009)
- HOU... 101 (set in 1998) and 81 (set in 2021)
- GLS... 97 (set in 1877) and 86 (set in 2022)
- PSX... 97 (set in 2018) and 86 (set in 2022)
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 104 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 102 80 101 80 / 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 94 83 92 83 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>200-300.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ210>214-226-227-
235>238-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42
August 2023
CLIMATE...
Record high and record high minimum temperatures for today are...
- CLL... 105 (last set in 2011) and 81 (set in 1914)
- IAH... 104 (set in 1998) and 82 (set in 2009)
- HOU... 101 (set in 1998) and 81 (set in 2021)
- GLS... 97 (set in 1877) and 86 (set in 2022)
- PSX... 97 (set in 2018) and 86 (set in 2022)
42
We broke the 2011 record yesterday. We're poised to do it again. I'm progging 107°F.
We've been averaging about 104°F here. Another pummeling today. TG for the cooler and wetter Spring!
This is why I never, ever, ever complain about "winter" weather in SETX!
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4496
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. Winds will
turn SE after 20Z and strengthen to near 10 KTS, then become light
VRB overnight through Thu morning. There is a brief window for
MVFR cigs or shallow fog for isolated locations early Thu
morning, and is to disperse by 14-15Z.
24
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023
VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. Winds will
turn SE after 20Z and strengthen to near 10 KTS, then become light
VRB overnight through Thu morning. There is a brief window for
MVFR cigs or shallow fog for isolated locations early Thu
morning, and is to disperse by 14-15Z.
24
-
brazoriatx
- Posts: 329
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
- Contact:
Off subject but the farmers have spoken! God I hope this comes true
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Euro really pushes the ridge out west by days 7-10. It's over Arizona and Cali, but also another interesting feature out east develops. A strong Bermuda ridge appears to really start developing which concerns me because a door will likely open up in the Gulf. Euro ensembles in extreme long range even show this as a possibility.
Looking for a GoM tropical jailbreak after August 17/18...as things settle into a Bermuda ridge and Western ridge.
Larry Cosgrove had an interesting post on LinkedIn roughly 10 hours ago. Basically the big suck is on for us into September but could lead to cold in the winter. He commented analog years of 1976, 1980, 2009, 2011.
I remember 2009 summer and who can forget 2011 summer. But they both also had significant winter events as well.
I remember 2009 summer and who can forget 2011 summer. But they both also had significant winter events as well.
Yeah. Looks like we’ll be sandwiched in between two highs. Hopefully spells some rain chances. Definitely will be keeping an eye on the Gulf as well.
Winter of 1976-1977, 1980-1981, and 2009-2010 were cold.davidiowx wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 7:31 pm Larry Cosgrove had an interesting post on LinkedIn roughly 10 hours ago. Basically the big suck is on for us into September but could lead to cold in the winter. He commented analog years of 1976, 1980, 2009, 2011.
I remember 2009 summer and who can forget 2011 summer. But they both also had significant winter events as well.
The earlier 19°F recorded happened in 1976.
The late 70s had cold weather in NC when I lived there. The Ohio River also froze two years in a row!Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 9:56 pmWinter of 1976-1977, 1980-1981, and 2009-2010 were cold.davidiowx wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 7:31 pm Larry Cosgrove had an interesting post on LinkedIn roughly 10 hours ago. Basically the big suck is on for us into September but could lead to cold in the winter. He commented analog years of 1976, 1980, 2009, 2011.
I remember 2009 summer and who can forget 2011 summer. But they both also had significant winter events as well.
The earlier 19°F recorded happened in 1976.
The 2011 winter event happened in Feb prior to the summer, though: so it would be the 2010-2011 season, and the summer of 2010 was milder/rainier compared to either 2009 and especially 2011.
Meanwhile, the winter following summer 2011, into 2012, was very mild overall (and decent amounts of rainfall despite the La Nina).
Meanwhile, the winter following summer 2011, into 2012, was very mild overall (and decent amounts of rainfall despite the La Nina).
Please be true.... please...
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4496
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 031048
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023
The extended stretch of dangerous heat continues as we`re headed
towards yet another day with afternoon temperatures topping out
above the 100°F mark. College Station (shout-out to Aggieland!)
reached 106°F on Wednesday, which not only broke their daily max
temperature record, but also made it their 25th day in a row with a
maximum temperature at or above 100°F. Day 26 (today) and Day 27
(Friday) are essentially a lock as well with the midlevel high
("heatdome") remaining overhead leading to additional days in the
triple digits. There is a slight difference from Wednesday though
that`ll lead to this afternoon`s temperatures being a couple of
degrees lower.
By this afternoon, PW values will range from 1.7"-2.1" with the
higher end of those values closer to the coast. This means we`ll
have a bit more moisture in the air (yay humidity), but we should
still see dew points mix out enough in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
for max temperatures to reach 102-104°F. Further south, expect
temperatures to top out in the 99-102°F range. The increased
humidity though means that heat index values will be elevated with
values of 107-111°F expected. As a result, a Heat Advisory remains
in effect through 9pm this evening. The increased moisture also
presents a slight opportunity for isolated showers/storms to develop
along the sea breeze this afternoon. Any convection that manages to
develop will have to fight through quite a bit of subsidence aloft,
so not expecting any long-lived showers/storms.
Another Heat Advisory will be needed for Friday as the heatdome
remains overhead, but things begin to shift a bit in the synoptic
pattern aloft. Going into Friday, the midlevel high will begin to
elongate westward extending towards the Baja Peninsula. This is the
beginning stages of a new midlevel high developing and strengthening
over the SW CONUS going into the weekend. Unfortunately, this won`t
have a noticeable impact on our forecast as high temperatures will
continue to reach the triple digits as 500mb heights remain around
594-596 dam. In fact, with PW values decreasing back into the 1.4"-
1.8" range, temperatures on Friday afternoon should be about a
degree or so hotter than today`s. Expect Friday`s high temperatures
to mainly range from 101-105°F with heat index values in the 108-
112°F range. Furthermore, the rain chances for Friday will be lower
than today`s due to lower PW values and a more robust subsidence
inversion layer aloft (~800-700mb).
With a Heat Advisory in effect today and additional advisories
likely being needed throughout the rest of the week, please continue
to keep heat safety at the top of your mind. Know the signs of heat
related illnesses, know the locations of the nearest cooling
centers, drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent
breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the
hottest part of the day, wear light clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS
ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about
your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your
hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Stay safe, stay cool, and
stay hydrated.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023
The mid/upper level ridge will be edging westward through the period.
This could eventually allow for possible shower/thunderstorm development
across parts of the area with the better/higher chances holding off
until maybe Tuesday and/or Wednesday. The ridge might end up staying
strong enough for much of our area which could end up keeping rains
off to our east. Current thinking unfortunately has a majority of Southeast
Texas staying dry and hot through the period. High temperatures inland
will continue to generally range from the upper 90s to lower 100s with
lows mostly in the upper 70s to around 80. The current forecast has heat
index values flirting with advisory levels almost daily, and expect to
see daily Heat Advisories for much if not all of the area.
Continue to practice heat safety!
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023
Light southwesterly winds this morning will become southeasterly
around 10-12 knots by the afternoon. Some isolated showers will be
possible south of the I-10 corridor today, but look too sporadic
in the model guidance to warrant adding in VCSH to any of the
sites. Winds become light and variable after sunset with VFR
conditions prevailing throughout the entire TAF period.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with 1 to 3 foot seas are expected to
prevail through the next several days. Small craft might need to exercise
caution during the overnight periods when the winds could increase to
around 15 knots. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 79 105 79 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 101 80 102 80 / 20 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 92 83 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42
FXUS64 KHGX 031048
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023
The extended stretch of dangerous heat continues as we`re headed
towards yet another day with afternoon temperatures topping out
above the 100°F mark. College Station (shout-out to Aggieland!)
reached 106°F on Wednesday, which not only broke their daily max
temperature record, but also made it their 25th day in a row with a
maximum temperature at or above 100°F. Day 26 (today) and Day 27
(Friday) are essentially a lock as well with the midlevel high
("heatdome") remaining overhead leading to additional days in the
triple digits. There is a slight difference from Wednesday though
that`ll lead to this afternoon`s temperatures being a couple of
degrees lower.
By this afternoon, PW values will range from 1.7"-2.1" with the
higher end of those values closer to the coast. This means we`ll
have a bit more moisture in the air (yay humidity), but we should
still see dew points mix out enough in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
for max temperatures to reach 102-104°F. Further south, expect
temperatures to top out in the 99-102°F range. The increased
humidity though means that heat index values will be elevated with
values of 107-111°F expected. As a result, a Heat Advisory remains
in effect through 9pm this evening. The increased moisture also
presents a slight opportunity for isolated showers/storms to develop
along the sea breeze this afternoon. Any convection that manages to
develop will have to fight through quite a bit of subsidence aloft,
so not expecting any long-lived showers/storms.
Another Heat Advisory will be needed for Friday as the heatdome
remains overhead, but things begin to shift a bit in the synoptic
pattern aloft. Going into Friday, the midlevel high will begin to
elongate westward extending towards the Baja Peninsula. This is the
beginning stages of a new midlevel high developing and strengthening
over the SW CONUS going into the weekend. Unfortunately, this won`t
have a noticeable impact on our forecast as high temperatures will
continue to reach the triple digits as 500mb heights remain around
594-596 dam. In fact, with PW values decreasing back into the 1.4"-
1.8" range, temperatures on Friday afternoon should be about a
degree or so hotter than today`s. Expect Friday`s high temperatures
to mainly range from 101-105°F with heat index values in the 108-
112°F range. Furthermore, the rain chances for Friday will be lower
than today`s due to lower PW values and a more robust subsidence
inversion layer aloft (~800-700mb).
With a Heat Advisory in effect today and additional advisories
likely being needed throughout the rest of the week, please continue
to keep heat safety at the top of your mind. Know the signs of heat
related illnesses, know the locations of the nearest cooling
centers, drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent
breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the
hottest part of the day, wear light clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS
ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about
your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your
hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Stay safe, stay cool, and
stay hydrated.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023
The mid/upper level ridge will be edging westward through the period.
This could eventually allow for possible shower/thunderstorm development
across parts of the area with the better/higher chances holding off
until maybe Tuesday and/or Wednesday. The ridge might end up staying
strong enough for much of our area which could end up keeping rains
off to our east. Current thinking unfortunately has a majority of Southeast
Texas staying dry and hot through the period. High temperatures inland
will continue to generally range from the upper 90s to lower 100s with
lows mostly in the upper 70s to around 80. The current forecast has heat
index values flirting with advisory levels almost daily, and expect to
see daily Heat Advisories for much if not all of the area.
Continue to practice heat safety!
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023
Light southwesterly winds this morning will become southeasterly
around 10-12 knots by the afternoon. Some isolated showers will be
possible south of the I-10 corridor today, but look too sporadic
in the model guidance to warrant adding in VCSH to any of the
sites. Winds become light and variable after sunset with VFR
conditions prevailing throughout the entire TAF period.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with 1 to 3 foot seas are expected to
prevail through the next several days. Small craft might need to exercise
caution during the overnight periods when the winds could increase to
around 15 knots. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 79 105 79 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 101 80 102 80 / 20 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 92 83 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42
I nominate this as the official song of Houston for the month of August:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOJqRknAKVE
Eh. I mentioned before, a "novelty snow" w/ marginal 30s temps (aka Dec 2008, Dec 2017, etc) is fine IF something were to happen. But 2021 deep freezes, as well as ice storms like Central/North Texas 2023 need to stay FAR away.
Instead, a milder, wet winter like 2011-2012 would aid better in drought recovery (assuming this August and September fail to deliver). 2011-2012 winter had a good combo of milder temps with more sun/dry days combined with wetter-than-normal anomalies (due to specific rain events).
Last edited by user:null on Thu Aug 03, 2023 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
Yeah...hot AF killing summers do not need to be followed by freezes that finish the job. It's been tough the last couple of years.user:null wrote: ↑Thu Aug 03, 2023 10:43 amEh. I mentioned before, a "novelty snow" w/ marginal 30s temps (aka Dec 2008, Dec 2017, etc) is fine IF something were to happen. But 2021 deep freezes, as well as ice storms like Central/North Texas 2023 need to stay FAR away. A milder, wet winter like 2011-2012 would aid better in drought recovery (assuming this August and September fail to deliver).
With the GoM and Atlantic war, this winter will be cool and wet. Greater chance of icy to snowy weather with overrun than a cold, dry blast.
I've never seen a winter that is killing our lawn and shrubs like this summer and 2011 - so bring it on!!!
I've never seen a winter that is killing our lawn and shrubs like this summer and 2011 - so bring it on!!!