Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 27, 2023 2:23 am
user:null it was the GFS runs from 12z on the 26th and beyond, the full day of runs, watch the northern gulf and youll see it was showing a little but of a weak vorticity signature/ wave moving in the general direction of texas, today it pretty much just goes into florida
In that case, I don't really see the worst of consequences. The 12z and 18z GFS from the 25th didn't exactly show decent rainmaking across Texas, as the qpf was rather low (as in totals through next week Aug 5th). But the 00z and 06z was definitely better, tho.
CMC 00z 25th was no good, but 12z was better. Euro was better than CMC for both on the 25th.
EDIT: nevermind, I see what you mean now, especially visible for this Saturday, the feature moves northeast from Florida to Georgia and Carolinas instead of retrograding west across the Gulf. The main effect leads to a bit stronger ridging extending down the Gulf Coast and Mexico, rather than a more east-west axis north of us entirely. So yea, qpf of next week is indeed quite a bit less ... but models still have a weakness/feature towards South Texas/Mexico: that can help "erode" the periphery of the ridge over our area if robust enough, especially if models aren't picking up on mesoscale nuances this far out.