2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[DoctorMu]

Cpv17 good point, if I remember correctly, didnt hurricane IKE do something like that? formed in the central atlantic and shot through the florida straits on its way to texas

Kinda. It actually went just south of there over Cuba but really close to the Straits. Hurricane Ike had one of the most wonky tracks I’ve seen. A TC that crossed those areas of the ATL shouldn’t even end up in the Gulf, much alone Texas.

A track more like Laura, Rita, or Galveston 1900 is something we should really be concerned about for storms.

Right. Just bypass the deadman's chest in the Caribbean.

[Ptarmigan]

Cpv17 good point, if I remember correctly, didnt hurricane IKE do something like that? formed in the central atlantic and shot through the florida straits on its way to texas

Kinda. It actually went just south of there over Cuba but really close to the Straits. Hurricane Ike had one of the most wonky tracks I’ve seen. A TC that crossed those areas of the ATL shouldn’t even end up in the Gulf, much alone Texas.

A track more like Laura, Rita, or Galveston 1900 is something we should really be concerned about for storms.

Hurricane Ike and 1900 Galveston Hurricane are Cape Verde hurricanes. They rarely hit Texas.

[Stratton20]

00z GFS is now showing development of the wave in the central atlantic and tracks it NNW through the islands of hispanola, has a tropical storm shooting the gap between florida straight and cuba at hour 186, and a strong cat 2 at hour 228, not totally out to woods as wind shear in the gulf is very favorable for development

[Stratton20]

We now have invest 95L, this is going to be an interesting one to track, the hurricane models are pretty bullish with it

[Stormlover2020]

12z euro painting the gulf

[Stratton20]

I domt think 95L warrents much attention anymore give its very underwhelming structure , this should cross over into the EPAC as an open wave and that will be all she wrote about this one, probably gonna have to wait until august to really get things going

[Cpv17]

I domt think 95L warrents much attention anymore give its very underwhelming structure , this should cross over into the EPAC as an open wave and that will be all she wrote about this one, probably gonna have to wait until august to really get things going

This is how I’m beginning to feel as well but not completely ruling anything out quite yet.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 i think its just moving too fast, that convection is out racing the LLC

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 i think its just moving too fast, that convection is out racing the LLC

Yeah and some dry air too. I think there’s another wave behind this one that might be worth keeping an eye on.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I did notice that, that wave might have a more conducive environment, though i feel like 95L is kind of a warning sign that the atlantic is about to wake up

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro develops the wave behind 95L (albeit weak) but I don’t really believe it because a few days ago it developed 95L as well but we’ll see.

[Stratton20]

The GFS does as well

[Stratton20]

Im actually more intrigued with the wave behind 95l thats just coming off of africa, models like that one alot more , plus compared to 95L the moisture envelope with this wave is much bigger, also the wave will be interacting with a strong rising motion CCKW, so that could give this wave a boost, the euro tries to consolidate it as it approaches hispanola and puerto rico, that one will be one to watch

[Cpv17]

Im actually more intrigued with the wave behind 95l thats just coming off of africa, models like that one alot more , plus compared to 95L the moisture envelope with this wave is much bigger, also the wave will be interacting with a strong rising motion CCKW, so that could give this wave a boost, the euro tries to consolidate it as it approaches hispanola and puerto rico, that one will be one to watch

Yep. Ensembles want to recurve it, though, but I don’t really believe that.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I dont buy it either, the bermuda high has been pretty strong so far , and 95L getting shoved far south is definitely an example of that

[Stratton20]

Also something to watch closer to home, we currently have a complex/ line of storms pushing south towards the gulf in eastern texas, that might be worth watching to see if they get out over the gulf, wind shear is pretty low in the GOM at the moment

[Cpv17]

This might be about the warmest I’ve seen the Gulf. It currently has some of the warmest SST’s in the entire world:



And it continues to warm as well. Craziness!

[Cpv17]

Typical early recurve bias in the models right now. You see this a lot when waves are first coming off Africa about to splashdown. Then they adjust back further west with time.

[Cpv17]

The door will be opening for the Gulf and for Texas as we enter the beginning of August.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep, and anything that gets into the gulf is likely to become a very powerful storm, favorable shear, absolute jet fuel water temps, high upper ocean heat content, if that doesnt spell trouble I dont know what does