2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Cpv17]

The euro and UKMET long range guidance are calling for a very busy atlantic hurricane season starting in August and beyond, even the university of colorado and several other offices have pretty aggressive predictions, this el nino will not be strong enough to suppress the atlantic, the switch is coming, alot of people are going to be fooled

Euro has an ACE total near 200

Yeah but I think most of the tracks will be recurves. Not sure if anything will even get into the Gulf this year.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I wouldnt trust that especially since the GULF is on fire, im thinking similar to 2020, not as active but im going with around 18/7/4
One thing I am particularly concerned about is the caribbean looks like a graveyard for systems this season, which on one hand sounds good for the islands and CA, however that also means tropical waves could just pass through the area and potentially find a more favorable environment in the GOM, el nino does not affect the GOM as much as it does with the caribbean,
Im expecting the MDR and the GOM to both be our hot spots for development with the caribbean being a deadzone

[Cpv17]

Long shot here but we may need to watch the tropics later this month or early August.

[Stratton20]

Looks like the GEFS guidance is hinting at some tropical mischief near the yucatan peninsula in the days 5-7 period, is that what you were seeing?

[Cpv17]

Looks like the GEFS guidance is hinting at some tropical mischief near the yucatan peninsula in the days 5-7 period, is that what you were seeing?

Nope. I’m referring to the wave that’s supposed to come off Africa in about a week from now. That’s the one I’ll be watching. Check out the 0z EPS and you’ll see what I mean. Since the EPS has a signal for it, it has more merit.

[Stratton20]

Probably will recurve, the caribbean is a graveyard this year, but it would nice to track a storm again, the only way i see anything getting into the gulf from the far eastern atlantic, is if it stays a weak wave while moving into the caribbean ( IF it does at all) or if we get something developing closer to home, shear looks pretty nasty in the caribbean, almost 50 knots

[Cpv17]

Probably will recurve, the caribbean is a graveyard this year, but it would ne nice to track a storm again

I don’t think that one will be a recurve. I don’t think it’ll be strong enough for that. I also expect this season to be more front loaded than normal. By mid September, El Niño will begin to have a slow death grip on the ATL hurricane season. I believe 75-80% of the named storms this season will develop between July 20th-September 20th. After that, conditions will be too unfavorable for development unless they recurve before the Leeward and Windward Islands.

[Cpv17]

Probably will recurve, the caribbean is a graveyard this year, but it would nice to track a storm again, the only way i see anything getting into the gulf from the far eastern atlantic, is if it stays a weak wave while moving into the caribbean ( IF it does at all) or if we get something developing closer to home, shear looks pretty nasty in the caribbean, almost 50 knots

We will have to watch storms this season going just north of the Caribbean and shooting through the FL Straits.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 good point, if I remember correctly, didnt hurricane IKE do something like that? formed in the central atlantic and shot through the florida straits on its way to texas

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 good point, if I remember correctly, didnt hurricane IKE do something like that? formed in the central atlantic and shot through the florida straits on its way to texas

Kinda. It actually went just south of there over Cuba but really close to the Straits. Hurricane Ike had one of the most wonky tracks I’ve seen. A TC that crossed those areas of the ATL shouldn’t even end up in the Gulf, much alone Texas.

[captainbarbossa19]

Cpv17 good point, if I remember correctly, didnt hurricane IKE do something like that? formed in the central atlantic and shot through the florida straits on its way to texas

Kinda. It actually went just south of there over Cuba but really close to the Straits. Hurricane Ike had one of the most wonky tracks I’ve seen. A TC that crossed those areas of the ATL shouldn’t even end up in the Gulf, much alone Texas.

A track more like Laura, Rita, or Galveston 1900 is something we should really be concerned about for storms.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 the operational euro now shows the system the eps has been hinting at , interesting, but the euro has also been consistent in showing some sort of weak front moving down across the SE and stalling in the gulf of mexico and just off the se coast, could cause this “system” to recurve, but also will be interesting to see if we get a front that gets into the gulf, i dont trust those hot gulf waters

[Stratton20]

Now the GFS and CMC both show that wave developing

[DoctorMu]

GoM hurricane gumbo is already 10°F above normal off FL. Once ridging lifts, there could be potential for a mega monster storm to develop or strengthen in the GoM.

DR - can't live with it, can't live without it.

[Cpv17]

It seems like the 12z EPS comes in with less support and the 0z has been bringing it back. You often see this, though. So it’s not really surprising.

The 18z GEFS looks kinda interesting. Not a strong signal by any means but definitely stronger than it has been.

[Stratton20]

Might want to keep an eye on our wave that the GFS and euro are picking up on, the euro shows the wave staying in tact as it tracks through the caribbean and past western cuba into the gulf of mexico, im not buy the GFS as the upper air pattern on that tun makes no sense at all

Ive attached the 12z EPS below
We hve two different ensemble camps here, a cluster takes it up towards florida and perhaps the east coast, while the other group tracks this westward through the caribbean, definitely beats monitoring

[Stratton20]

I think we are going to have to wait until august to see some big development, models are no longer excited about developing this new wave coming off of africa

[Stratton20]

I might have spoke too soon, the 12z EPS is very aggressive with the tropical wave

[Cpv17]

I might have spoke too soon, the 12z EPS is very aggressive with the tropical wave

Yeah, I wouldn’t write it off yet. Especially if it can make it to the far SW Atl near the Bahamas or the NW Caribbean.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 You know i think what concerns me is the fact that even if the caribbean is a graveyard this year for storms, we could have tropical waves sneaking through the caribbean , while not necessarily developing but staying in tact, and then those waves end up sneaking up on people and one of the waves develops quickly in the gulf, caribbean could be sneaky

And each wave that comes off of africa is moistening up the environment for the next wave, could spell trouble