July 2023

[Cpv17]

Well the western half of southeast Texas is now under a high risk of excessive temps, per the CPC for the first time all summer. Guess it’s only going to get even hotter.. yay!!

[Stratton20]

I hate to say it, but i would rather take a weak tropical storm/ hurricane at this point, this pattern just flat out sucks either way you look at it, lawns and plants going dead, i cant wait for winter

[tireman4]

FDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
230 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

The main concern throughout the entire forecast period continues
to be the potential for dangerous heat across the area. Observed
heat index values have so far climbed as high as 112 this
afternoon, with an Excessive Heat Warning remaining in effect for
much of the area into the early evening hours. Given the little
change expected to the synoptic pattern in the coming days as
a robust midlevel ridge remains dominant over the South
Central/Southwestern CONUS, the potential for excessive heat will
persist for the foreseeable future. Overnight lows, aided by a
developing cloud deck after sunset, will continue to hover around
80 degrees as persistent southerly winds supply the area with
abundant moisture.

Afternoon highs in the upper 90s to around 100 will once again
develop tomorrow, and elevated dew points will push heat index
values to around 110. As such, a Heat Advisory remains in effect
for all of SE TX. Some slight mitigation may be provided by breezy
condition during the afternoon with gusts of around 20 mph
possible. However, heat safety actions, such as remaining hydrated
and avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest parts of the
day, remain critical. Yet another night of lows of around 80 is on
the cards again tomorrow.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

No major changes from the previous forecast. High pressure still
maintains a hold over the area and that does not appear to change
too much through the long-term period. Low-level winds will be
generally out of the south, and will continue to pull in moisture
from the Gulf. The combination of moisture and high temperatures
will continue to contribute to dangerous heat index values. At this
time it appears that heat index values will stay in the triple
digits for the entire area through early next week, which may
necessitate daily Heat Advisories.

There is a slight chance (15-20%) for precipitation Sunday afternoon
into Monday as a shortwave moves along the eastern periphery of the
ridge and moves into the area from the NW. The chance for
precipitation looks to be mostly confined to areas east of the
Downtown Houston area and in the Gulf waters. Right now the limiting
factor will be the subsidence in the mid-levels. There is plenty of
CAPE to work with, and LI values suggest a pretty unstable
environment; however, there is a pretty stout cap that will need to
be overcome.

Nighttime temperatures will remain on the warmer side with lows in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Essentially, nights will be pretty warm
and humid.

The takeaway continues to be that dangerous heat conditions will
persist for the foreseeable future. Continue to practice heat
safety, and remember to look before you lock!


Adams/Barnett

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Conditions will remain within VFR thresholds for the remainder of
the afternoon and into the early evening, with SSW winds of
around 10-15 knots shifting slightly to the S as the sea breeze
advances inland. Wind gusts as high as 25 knots may be possible
at all terminals. Tonight, we will likely see widespread MVFR cig
development after sunset as has been the case for the past several
nights. Winds will relax slightly, but should remain high enough
to inhibit fog development. VFR conditions return after sunrise
tomorrow morning.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Winds over the Gulf Waters and Bays will continue their typical
summertime diurnal pattern through early next week. Winds will
increase to 10-15 knots at night and weaken to 5 to 10 knots during
the afternoons. Seas will be around 2 to 4 feet. Slight rain chances
are possible Sunday into early next week.

Adams

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 82 101 80 100 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 90 83 91 / 0 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>199-335>337-436>439.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ200-
210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-338.

Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Friday for
TXZ200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-338.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Adams

[user:null]

I hate to say it, but i would rather take a weak tropical storm/ hurricane at this point, this pattern just flat out sucks either way you look at it, lawns and plants going dead, i cant wait for winter

Going by last month, I'd say a week of heat/dryness is not a big deal regarding green landscape. It's that end of second week where things are at "danger point", and the third wherein the true ugliness is unleashed.

Areas that were lucky with last weeks rains (such as my workplace near Sugar Land, as well as Ft. Bend in general) still have sizable standing water (and these area areas not near any water sprinklers).

[Stratton20]

User:null this ridge pattern definitely looks to be going nowhere even in the long range, i dont know what its going to to substantially break this heat wave more than just a day or two but its going to have to be a huge player to get this persistent and pesky ridge to break down for good

[user:null]

User:null this ridge pattern definitely looks to be going nowhere even in the long range, i dont know what its going to to substantially break this heat wave more than just a day or two but its going to have to be a huge player to get this persistent and pesky ridge to break down for good

An eastward extent, preferably with some latitude. Basically, what the 12zCMC shows (as well as Euro 12z to a lesser extent).

Even if the thing never breaks down, at least the high 850mb temps would be farther away. Combined with more decent moisture fetch, that would produce, at least, better chances of iso-scattered stuff.

The 18zGFS is also shows good evolution ... albeit, beyond 10 days.

Overall, something causes these 500mb ridges. The atmospheric nature implies randomness ... yet, whatever the cause, it seems to favor the Western/Central US, whereas troughs are never-ending in the Great Lakes (the S2K people state that the -PDO contributes, but I am not as familiar with that pattern as with ENSO, PNA, NAO, etc).

[DoctorMu]

I wish I could send this rain in Mississippi to Texas. It has been raining here almost every day and rained several inches today alone.

We'd be glad to relieve you of some of the rain! LA and MS can really get waterlogged.

[Cpv17]

User:null this ridge pattern definitely looks to be going nowhere even in the long range, i dont know what its going to to substantially break this heat wave more than just a day or two but its going to have to be a huge player to get this persistent and pesky ridge to break down for good

An eastward extent, preferably with some latitude. Basically, what the 12zCMC shows (as well as Euro 12z to a lesser extent).

Even if the thing never breaks down, at least the high 850mb temps would be farther away. Combined with more decent moisture fetch, that would produce, at least, better chances of iso-scattered stuff.

The 18zGFS is also shows good evolution ... albeit, beyond 10 days.

Overall, something causes these 500mb ridges. The atmospheric nature implies randomness ... yet, whatever the cause, it seems to favor the Western/Central US, whereas troughs are never-ending in the Great Lakes (the S2K people state that the -PDO contributes, but I am not as familiar with that pattern as with ENSO, PNA, NAO, etc).

I’m not familiar with a lot of the oscillations out there. There’s a lot to learn.

[Cpv17]

I wish I could send this rain in Mississippi to Texas. It has been raining here almost every day and rained several inches today alone.

We'd be glad to relieve you of some of the rain! LA and MS can really get waterlogged.

Even southern LA is in a drought now.

[Pas_Bon]

I hate to say it, but i would rather take a weak tropical storm/ hurricane at this point, this pattern just flat out sucks either way you look at it, lawns and plants going dead, i cant wait for winter

Agreed. This is absolute misery. I don’t even want to be outside at all.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131135 AAE
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

The eastern fringes of the strong mid to upper level high pressure
situated over Southwestern CONUS will continue to expand into the
South Central CONUS region today and allow for temperatures to heat
up a degree or two more than yesterday. To add to this, rain chances
be little to nil and skies will be sunny. The highs will peak in the
low 100s this afternoon for inland portions, upper 90s for the
southernmost counties, and the low to mid 90s along the Barrier
Islands. The heat indicies will once again climb to the 110-115
degrees F range along the central portions of Southeast TX and in
the 108-112 degrees F range elsewhere. For the central portions, the
Heat Advisory has been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning. The
rest of the Southeast TX remains under a Heat Advisory.

Slightly drier air is expected on Friday. The high temperatures will
be similar to today`s, although some locations may be a degree or
two lower. The heat indices may also be a few degrees lower,
however, they will remain between 108-112 degrees F. This means that
Southeast TX will continue to be under a Heat Advisory on Friday.
The lows during the overnight into early morning hours will remain
in the upper 70s to low 80s, keeping us warm and muggy.

These are dangerous heat conditions, please continue to practice
heat safety. Make the appropriate adjustments if you plan to work or
spend time outdoors. Remember to hydrate often, wear lightweight and
loose fitting clothing, stay in the shade or cool off in an air
conditioned building, and wear sunscreen. Never leave children or
pets unattended in vehicles. If the ground is too hot for your
hands, then it is also too hot for their paws.

Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
Check with your local authorities regarding the potential opening of
any cooling centers in your area.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Feeling a bit like a broken record as hot and humid weather will
persist through the long term. The mid level ridge over the Desert
Southwest will be strengthening on Saturday bringing subsidence to
the region. Meanwhile, the onshore flow at the surface will
continue to advect higher dew points into SE Texas. So, expect
heat indices to again climb to advisory criteria on Saturday.
There will be a shortwave riding the eastern side of the ridge on
Sunday that will bring a slight chance of afternoon
showers/thunderstorms for areas east of I-45. However, don`t get
your hopes up as there will be a pretty strong cap that storms
will have to overcome. And any rain that does fall will boil
before reaching the ground. Okay, won`t be that hot, but expect
heat indices to again climb to 105-110 on Sunday.

As we enter the workweek, the bubble of high pressure aloft will
begin to move eastward to be centered over Texas by Wednesday.
This will continue to raise heights across Texas keeping us in the
hot pattern, and will suppress any precipitation chances. High
temperatures next week will be approaching the triple digits, and
heat indices in the afternoons will be advisory level each day.
With the threat of continuous dangerous heat, please remember to
drink plenty of water, limit strenuous outdoor activity, and don`t
ever leave children/pets/people in locked, off vehicles.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Conditions will become VFR past 15Z through tonight. S-SW winds
will increase to 10-15 KTS today with gusts up to 25 KTS on
occasion as an 850 mb jet moves across the region. Winds will
turn S-SE around 21Z and relax to 5-10 KTS around 06Z. VFR to
MVFR cigs expected overnight into early Fri morning.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Onshore flow will continue through next week with light winds
during the daytime hours (around 10kts) with occasionally
moderate winds during the overnight hours (15-20kts). Small craft
may need to exercise caution at times, as early as tonight. Seas
will remain between two and four feet through the week as well.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 102 78 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 101 80 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 91 83 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-164-176-177-
195>198-235-236-335>337-436>439.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ178-
179-199-200-210>214-226-227-237-238-300-313-338.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Friday for
TXZ178-179-199-200-210>214-226-227-237-238-300-313-338.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...24
MARINE...Fowler

[DoctorMu]

GFS and GEFS ensemble break down the ridge in 10-15 days. Fingers crossed.

[Stratton20]

* Just for fun* The farmers weather almanac has a tropical storm threat for se texas in the july 24-26th time frame, we will see about that

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 132021
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
321 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

In general, we continue to remain in what mostly amounts to a
persistence forecast for the remainder of the week and into the
beginning of the weekend. Synoptically, not much has changed over
the past 24 hours with the dominant mid/upper ridge over the SW
CONUS continuing to drift ever so slightly to the east. With this
pattern expected to continue in the immediate term, our primary
forecast concern will continue to surround the potential for
excessive heat, a risk which will be amplified by a minimal
daytime cloud cover (and thus higher solar radiative impacts on
those outdoors) and slightly lighter winds.

The Heat Advisory in effect for tomorrow has been extended through
the early part of the weekend, with similar conditions to the past
two days expected to once again develop across SE TX. Short-range
guidance shows the potential for some slightly drier dew points to
mix down during the afternoon hours tomorrow as the 850mb jet
turns slightly to the SW and weakens for a brief period. That
being said, we still anticipate dangerously hot conditions with
heat index values as high as 110 as high temperatures once again
approach or exceed the triple digits. Overnight lows will not
provide much relief as most locations will struggle to dip much
below 80 both tonight and tomorrow. Given this, heat safety
actions remain critical for the foreseeable future.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

There aren`t many more ways to say "It`s going to be hot, and there
is no end in sight." We have our fingers crossed that at the very
least a shower or thunderstorm will occur Sunday into Monday
morning; however, the ridge has a strong presence over our
area...and thus, sinking air. Of course, when we have a strong
presence of sinking air over the area, it makes it rather difficult
for air parcels to go up. The saving grace may come in the form of
shortwaves that move around the eastern periphery of the ridge and
into our area from the NW, as well as pockets of stronger moisture
convergence and upward motion. As previously mentioned, however,
both of these factors will need to overcome a pretty stout cap and
subsident air. The best chances of that occurring will be across
areas east of I-45, where PoPs are at (15-20%). Activity would
likely occur during the afternoon/evening hours on Sunday with peak
heating and with aid from the bay and sea breeze.

Otherwise, it`s just going to be hot, y`all...highs in the triple
digits across most of the area through the long term, with the
immediate coast sitting in the 90s. Onshore flow at the low levels
will continue to pull in moisture and create humid conditions on top
of the heat...and to continue to drive in the same point as previous
forecast discussions, this is going to make Heat Index rise to
miserable levels. At this time it appears Heat Advisories may be
needed each day through the middle of next week.

Nighttime temperatures will provide some relief as temperatures drop
into the 70s and 80. Winds will be light to moderate out of the SE.

Continue to practice heat safety through the next week by staying
hydrated, wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing and looking
before you lock!


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the duration of the afternoon
and into the evening, with SW winds shifting to the SSE as the
seabreeze pushes inland over the next several hours. Wind gusts at
times may reach around 20 knots, with winds relaxing after sunset.
MVFR cig development is expected once again overnight, with clouds
clearing out after sunrise and VFR conditions resuming.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Onshore flow will continue through next week. Winds will be light
during the daytime hours and will increase during the nighttime
hours. Winds may approach moderate levels (15-20 knots) during the
nighttime hours. Small craft may need to exercise caution at times,
beginning as early as tonight. Seas will generally be between two
and four feet through the long-term period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 91 82 91 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-237-238-300-313-338.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-237-238-300-313-
338.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ235-236-335>337-
436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Adams

[Cpv17]

DP’s are actually down this afternoon over here. 97°F but the feels like temp is just 105°F.

[user:null]

Seems like mixing was much better today.

[Cpv17]

I find it interesting how Beaumont is included in the moderate drought area and I’m only in the abnormally dry area on the latest drought monitor map. They’ve had way more rain than I have had over the past few weeks. I guess soils there dry up faster than they do here and they need rain on a regular basis to prevent a drought. Only thing I can think of.

[user:null]

I find it interesting how Beaumont is included in the moderate drought area and I’m only in the abnormally dry area on the latest drought monitor map. They’ve had way more rain than I have had over the past few weeks. I guess soils there dry up faster than they do here and they need rain on a regular basis to prevent a drought. Only thing I can think of.

That, or it's simply that "drought" is a purely relative basis: what is closer to normal for your location would represent a bigger deficit for Beaumont.

Hence the "absence of drought" in in coastal RGV locales like Brownsville, Harlingen, etc, despite those places being quite bone dry even compared to your location, let alone Houston or Beaumont.

[user:null]

CONFIRMED: extratropical intrusions interfere with monsoonal/tropical dynamics. Persistent eastern US troughing might indeed be responsible for making summer droughts more persistent in Texas.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature08707/

[DoctorMu]

GFS insists on a back door front around the 25th. So does the GEPS Ensemble...