June 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Geez… Junction is getting absolutely hammered.
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tireman4
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A friend of mine is in it. She tweeted the haiil coming down.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 10:03 pm @DoctorMu it’s getting close…
But no cigar.
Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 10:24 pm A friend of mine is in it. She tweeted the haiil coming down.
They were under a flash flood warning, severe thunderstorm warning, and a tornado warning just west of there all at once. Crazy stuff. I bet they’ve had over 5” of rain in just the past hour or two.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 8:54 pm Another day, another Lucy Mammatus sighting. We have a cell heading down Hwy 6 between Marlin and Hearne. Guaranteed to fall apart within 5-10 mi of my backyard. :lol: :roll:
I was wrong - the cell collapsed within 1 miles of the house. :roll:

Nada.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Coaches 2 games today and I have 4 tomorrow. I got every swamp *** fan in the dugout churning and making some Florida water for the boys tomorrow
Team #NeverSummer
user:null
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I hate to "live and die" by each run. But that 00z GFS is brutal: it's as if this state truly is cursed and god-forsaken with some magic spell or something. Actually, even a magic spell might be too fortunate at this point regarding what keeps happening to Texas.
Last edited by user:null on Sat Jun 17, 2023 12:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
Stratton20
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00z model runs show no hope of rain, that GFS run would be absolutely devastating for drought ( farms)
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tireman4
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2023 12:08 am Coaches 2 games , I have 4 tomorrow. I got every swamp *** fan in the dugout churning and making some Florida water for the boys tomorrow
I have two separate swim meets today, both indoors, but get this, the first one, at FBISD Training Center in Alief, has no A/C nor fans. Just a big old garage over a pool. It shall be fun. Then I have to travel 54 miles to New Caney to work yet another meet and New Caney ISD pool. At least that one is air conditioned. What a day. Lol
Cromagnum
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73 and 15% humidity up here in Ruidoso. Way better than the hellfire back home.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:52 am This is crazy:

https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/166 ... LK8-EahY_A
https://grist.org/climate/why-is-the-su ... eme-start/

Looks like an energy dump from the oceans to the atmosphere. :shock:
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sat Jun 17, 2023 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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We have some clouds and probably verga keeping the head down for now. I'll take it.

My dumb neighbor cut/scalped their St. Augustine grass was too low again. His funeral. What is is about Aggies cutting St. Augustine way below the recommended 2 3/4 in? :lol: This especially important during our massive heat waves.

Sorry to see everyone go through a "College Station summer" this early in the season.


I'm still pulling for more clouds and more haze. 8-)

The dew point is till out of control around 77-78°F, so the heat index is about 108° but we've hit 98-99°F the last 2 days. We might end up under 100°f again. Fingers crossed.

Survive and advance, folks! That's your secret. Keep it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPwz4QpXq-4
Stratton20
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Still dont see any rain chances down the road( couple of weeks) that upper low the models( GFS) show is too weak and doesnt have a whole lot of moisture to work with
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DoctorMu
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Never making it close to the predicted high -ere - 94°F instead of 100°F. It's not 75°F and raining like Boca, but small victories!
user:null
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2023 6:14 pm Still dont see any rain chances down the road( couple of weeks) that upper low the models( GFS) show is too weak and doesnt have a whole lot of moisture to work with
It's as if TX has been cursed and godforsaken regarding rainfall when it is most needed. Though the runs today have showecased more favorable scenarios, regardless of whatever QPF they spit out.
Stratton20
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user:null i unfortunately think the state is in for some pretty rough drought conditions and potentially fires the next few weeks with this persistent blow torch inferno pattern, im just hoping something can break down the ridge and allow more disturbances to sneak in
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DoctorMu
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user:null wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2023 7:35 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 17, 2023 6:14 pm Still dont see any rain chances down the road( couple of weeks) that upper low the models( GFS) show is too weak and doesnt have a whole lot of moisture to work with
It's as if TX has been cursed and godforsaken regarding rainfall when it is most needed. Though the runs today have showecased more favorable scenarios, regardless of whatever QPF they spit out.
We'll see. I couple of weeks ago stratton was a ridge change skeptic. Now he has Battered Death Ridge Syndrome. (that's a play on Battered Aggie Syndrome and major sports) 8-)
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DoctorMu
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NWS forecast now drops the highs to 94° - 96° F Thursday - Saturday...as the ridge weakens and the trough edges closer from the east.

Then the ridge elongates, weakens. Follow the ensembles rather than individual runs.

There's a slight chance of showers late tonight, maybe tomorrow night. The cap will limit severe weather east of I-35. Last night was probably out best chance.

After that, we're screwed for a week on rain, but maybe some seabreeze action showers as we near July.

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redneckweather
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My gosh what a bunch of cry babies in here. :lol: Yes it is a bit hotter than normal but overall, typical summertime weather for us here in Texas. We had a nice wet Spring which wasn't going to last when summer kicked in. Welcome to Texas.
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