April 2023

[Stratton20]

i personally dont think the death ridge is going to be as bad this year due to el nino rapidly making its appearance , Looking at long range guidance, and the monthly models, may is looking pretty wet around here, also seeing signs that the heart of hurricane season ( august, september, october) could be wetter than normal , that’s definitely something worth watching as the months progress

[DoctorMu]

That's my hypothesis right now and fingers crossed. More clouds, popcorn showers, even a cold core ULL occasionally sneaking in from the Rockies. Usually El Niño summers have weaker hurricanse because of the hightened mid to upper-level shear. More lemonade and weak systems dropping rain?

We'll see.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 241120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

We begin our Monday on a brisk note with northeast winds and temps
predominantly in the 50s with 40s in our northernmost counties.
Winds will slowly veer to a more easterly direction today.
Meanwhile, moist onshore flow will continue not too far above the
surface (850-900MB) resulting in continued mostly cloudy conditions
though some locations could see more sun than others. Temperatures
won`t be as cool today as they were Sunday. But continued below
average temps are likely. Widespread highs in the low/mid-70s are
expected. Northernmost counties may only manage to reach the upper-
60s. Tonight will be a tad warmer though still a little cooler than
normal with lows generally in the mid/upper-50s north of I-10 and in
the low/mid-60s south of I-10. The weather becomes more interesting
on Tuesday.

A robust mid/upper trough, currently over the Pacific NW, will
propagate southeastward over Rockies today. By Tuesday, the trough
will dig southward over Colorado and New Mexico. Meanwhile, the
steering flow to the south of this trough will push a shortwave
trough, currently moving southeast over central California, through
the Desert Southwest and into Texas on Tuesday. Increasing onshore
flow will return at the low-levels / surface, ushering in a warmer
and more humid air mass. PWs are expected to rise throughout the day
on Tuesday, peaking in the 1.25-1.50 inch range by the afternoon and
evening hours. These peak PWs are expected to coincide with the peak
PVA associated with the oncoming shortwave trough. In addition,
instability will gradually increase as the day progresses. HREF
ensemble mean indicating 1000-1500 CAPE (little higher over
westernmost counties, little lower for eastern most counties). All
these factors coupled with a strengthening mid/upper jet are
expected to make the atmosphere conducive for the development of
thunderstorms, with a few possibly becoming strong to severe. SPC
has issued a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for
our northwestern/Brazos Valley counties down to about Columbus. The
rest of our CWA is in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5). Large hail and
damaging wind gusts are the primary concerns. Isolated tornadoes are
possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also a concern where the
heaviest showers and thunderstorms occur.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

Wednesday will start out quiet in the morning, but look for increasing
rain chances (showers and possible thunderstorms, generally from north
to south) Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night as moisture pools
along and ahead of the next cold front associated with the next shortwave/
trough. Highest risk of any strong/severe storms will be off to our
north and northwest (Central Texas through Northeast Texas areas). Clouds
will be on a decreasing trend and rains will come to an end (again,
mainly from north to south) on Thursday as drier air filters in behind
the front. Another cold front and possible rain sweeps across the area
Friday night through Saturday morning. Saturday will be on the breezy
side. Saturday night and Sunday will be quiet with high pressure in
control.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 80s ahead of the cold fronts
(Wednesday and Friday) and in the 70s behind the cold fronts (Thursday
and Saturday). Low temperatures will be mainly in the 50s with the
exception of Wednesday night (upper 50s to mid 60s range) and Saturday
night (upper 40s to low 50s).

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

Generally BKN to SCT skies are expected today with winds gradually
veering NE to E. Mostly VFR cigs are expected today with areas of
MVFR possible this morning and early afternoon. Best chance of
MVFR will be at LBX. Cigs forecast is tricky tonight due to some
model discrepancies. We do think there will be a general lowering
of cigs overnight. For now, we are showing low-end VFR cigs late
tonight into early tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

Moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds will become east and
gradually decrease this afternoon through tonight. Seas will also be
on a slow decreasing trend. An onshore flow returns to the area Tuesday
and Tuesday night and persists until the next cold front moves across
the area Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The offshore flow
behind the front will persist until Friday afternoon when east to southeast
winds return to the area. Another cold front moves across the area Friday
night through Saturday morning. Periods of caution flags and possible
advisories along with occasional showers and thunderstorms can be expected
throughout this week and on into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 58 77 64 / 10 20 60 50
Houston (IAH) 73 58 78 65 / 10 10 50 40
Galveston (GLS) 73 68 76 69 / 10 10 40 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 PM CDT this afternoon
through this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste

[DoctorMu]

The models, ensembles, and mesos so far aren't bringing a lot of rain to the Brazos Valley this week. Cloudy and cool - A/C and sprinkler system are off. Good enough.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

Expect the rest of today to have NE to E winds 5 to 10 kts with
mid-level clouds providing SCT-BKN 040-060 cover. Cloud cover
thickens and bases lower overnight, with some MVFR CIGs emerging
tomorrow morning. Some rain potential may creep in from IAH
northward, but will hold off on TAF mention until after 18Z. This
means no precip in this cycle, except the extended at IAH. Look
for scattered storms, peaking tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

&&

[Iceresistance]

We're currently on a 4-day streak of double-digit Daily SOI values!

[Cpv17]

I really don’t see any significant rain chances happening over the next week or so. Maybe as we get later into the first week of May there might be something. Got plenty of rain for now so I’m good.

[DoctorMu]

A beautiful sunny day with temps in the mid to upper 60s. A cool, nice spring evening, more like NC that TX. I'll take it!

Clouds are infiltrating. Rain is a coin flip Tuesday - Thursday before another beautiful weekend.

Bottle it up. Even with El Nino this won't last.

[DoctorMu]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

This week promises another stretch of unsettled weather, with the
most potential for impactful weather coming Tuesday and Wednesday.
There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms mainly in
the western portion of our area on Tuesday, and in the far north
on Wednesday. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) covers the remainder
of our area on Tuesday, and the area north of the Houston metro
and south of the slight risk area on Wednesday. In addition to
severe storms, those western and northern areas may see locally
heavy rainfall in stronger storms; should this occur over a
vulnerable area there may be some limited, highly localized
flooding issues. This is accompanied by a marginal risk (level 1
of 4) for excessive rainfall that roughly coincides with the
slight risk areas for severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

Who`s ready for another period of active weather?! Well...hang on
just a sec. We`ve still got to get through today. The pattern
aloft is relatively zonal, and though there is low pressure over
the central Gulf, we`re really falling more under the sway of a
surface high over the Ohio Valley. For now, this is giving us low
level flow more from the northeast, which is keeping things
dry(ish...minimum RHs are still around 50 percent, so it`s not
~*~that~*~ dry). We`ve gotten enough sun to break through today
for most of the area to be up around 70 degrees at 2pm, and most
should be on their way to a high temp around or just slightly
higher than that 70 benchmark.

Look for winds to continue to veer easterly through the rest of
the afternoon, and gradually make their way towards southeasterly
overnight into Tuesday, reconnecting us with the Gulf and
beginning to boost moisture. At the same time, an upper trough
will be starting to drop off the Rockies, inducing lee
cyclogenesis off to our west. That will eventually come more
directly into play for us, but not in my portion of the
discussion.

Instead, we`ll be keeping an eye on lead shortwave troughs/vort
maxes being shed into the flow in advance of this bigger upper
trough. That will provide some support aloft for upward motion,
while the higher theta-e boundary layer air associated with that
Gulf inflow should bolster instability. HREF probabilities peg
most of the area as likely to exceed a low threshold of 500 J/Kg
of SBCAPE tomorrow afternoon, with it being a near lock west of
I-45. While exceeding 1000 J/Kg may be a tougher ask east of I-45,
it looks more likely to the west, particularly along the western
edge of the forecast area. Similarly, some capping may remain in
place in the east, but does not look to be an issue farther west.
Shear shouldn`t be a problem, with a westerly shear vector progged
to exceed 40 knots area-wide.

Now, with all that said, it may be tough to get a trigger. We`ll
likely have at least some overnight cloudiness to hold daytime
warming back a bit, and lift is somewhat conditional on shortwave
timing. This introduces the potential of a blue sky bust should we
just simply fail to get any convective initiation. But...any
storms that do form, particularly along our western edge and into
our neighbors` portions of Central Texas and North Texas, will
certainly have the potential to become severe. It`s that awkward
time when I have PoPs only in the 30s and 40s, and many/most/all
will not see any storms. But anyone that does see a storm has a
notable chance to get smacked.

Given the instability involved, hail is the likely threat, along
with some potential for large hail exceeding two inches. Damaging
wind gusts will be right there as well as a severe threat. I`m not
super impressed with the tornado threat, as helicity numbers
aren`t so great, especially during peak heating when storm
initiation is most likely. Now, with that said, the HREF is also
showing some potential for the strongest storms to persist well
into the evening/nighttime hours. If they can hold their strength,
the low level jet will increase, and tornado potential may
actually increase into the nighttime hours...if there are any
storms there in the first place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023

After a brief lull early Wednesday morning, rain chances should rise
throughout the day on Wednesday as an upper level trough over TX/OK
Panhandle pushes eastward. 850mb temperatures rise to around 14-17C
during the afternoon, bringing highs into the upper 70s to mid 80s
while dewpoints remain in the upper 60s/lower 70s. This should
provide ample buoyancy/instability as MU CAPE nears/exceeds 2000
J/KG across portions of SE Texas. Midlevel lapse rates are still
progged to be around 7-8C/km during the late afternoon/evening time
frame with bulk shear near 40 knots. DCAPE approaches 1000 J/KG at
times with PWs expected near 1.4 inches. That being said, forecast
soundings show the environment struggling to completely erode the
850mb cap, in part due to the ample cloud cover and slight westerly
component to the 850mb flow. SPC and WPC have portions of our
northernmost counties under a slight risk of severe weather and
excessive rainfall for Wednesday. With these storms looking more
elevated in nature, the primary hazards associated with them will be
strong winds, hail and locally heavy rainfall.

The aforementioned upper level trough should push across Oklahoma
Wednesday evening, draping a cold front across the region late
Wednesday night through early Thursday morning. This should bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms, though waning
instability ahead of the FROPA should work to limit their intensity.
Drier, slightly cooler conditions settle in on Thursday evening as
northerly winds and surface high pressure settles in across the
Southern Plains. This surface high quickly sides east, allowing
onshore flow to return by Friday afternoon. Moisture builds Friday
evening as an upper level trough/cutoff low dives south across the
Plains. This trough will attempt to drape another cold front across
the region Friday night into Saturday morning, along with another
round of showers/storms. Look for cooler an drier conditions
Saturday night as surface high pressure drops into the Southern
Plains behind the front. A mid to upper level ridge develops across
the West CONUS on Sunday with onshore flow returning and
temperatures rising into next week.

&&

[DoctorMu]

Mild weather through about May 2nd






Reality will hit with unsettled, humid, warmer temps probably after that.

[DoctorMu]

Hmmm...GFS and CMC are trying to keep some cool(ish) weather around after May 2nd. We'll see.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

A robust mid/upper trough will dig southward over the Four Corners
region today. Strong mid/upper zonal flow on the southern flank of
the trough will eject a shortwave, along with other numerous little
vorticity maximums, into Texas. The resulting PVA increase will
enhance lift over our region today, especially later this afternoon
and into this evening. At the surface, the return of onshore flow
will bring a noticeable increase in the humidity. The resulting
moisture advection will send PWATs upward over an inch and likely
into the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range. Effective bulk shear will also be
on the increase today, surpassing 40 knots by this afternoon or
evening. By the sound of this paragraph thus far, one might assume
there is a severe risk today. That assumption is technically
correct, however, the atmosphere is showing some mixed signals today
regarding the severe weather risk. Despite a cooperative shear and
moisture environment for convective development, the instability may
be lacking.

HREF ensembles 24 hours ago were showing decent instability for this
afternoon and evening. However, the trend since then has been
towards less instability. As per the 00Z HREF ensembles, only our
western/northwestern most counties have a 50 percent or greater
chance of 1000+ J/kg CAPE. Ensemble means generally show 500-800
CAPE with the Brazos Valley to perhaps as far south of Colorado
County reaching 1000 J/kg. 12KM NAM forecast soundings are showing a
little more instability with more widespread 1000-1200 sfc CAPE
values. However, those same forecast soundings are also indicating
enhanced CIN and a noticeable cap. Only the Brazos Valley
accomplishes effective CIN greater than -50. So the atmosphere is a
bit of a mixed bag today and this evening. This is likely why SPC no
longer puts our western/northwestern counties in a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 5) today. However, most of our CWA remains in a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 5). Therefore, it is still a good idea to remain
weather aware. Many of you will not receive a thunderstorm today.
However, we still cannot rule out isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms with the main threat being hail. The best chance of
severe weather will be over our western/northwestern counties. PoPs
for later today into this evening remain 30-40 percent for most
areas. The exception is over northern and northwestern portions of
our CWA where PoPs are generally 40-50 percent (little higher in the
Brazos Valley).

Unfortunately, the severe risk does not end with today. The
aforementioned mid/upper trough digging southward over the Four
Corners region today will push eastward into western Texas on
Wednesday. A surface low is expected to develop over northwest Texas
Wednesday morning and propagate eastward as the day progresses.
Located in the warm sector of the system, southeast Texas can expect
onshore flow, increasing dew points, and warmer temperatures. Dew
points may rise in the low-70s over much of the region. A bit on the
sticky side if you ask me. PWATs will be on the rise once again.
Some model discrepancy exists regarding peak PWAT values. But there
appears to be decent agreement that PWATs will exceed Tuesday`s
values. As the surface low pushes eastward, an associated cold front
will push southeastward towards our region. Some isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity will be possible Wednesday afternoon. However,
the cap may limit the bulk of the strong to severe weather risk to
the FROPA time frame.

SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather for
most of our CWA on Wednesday. However, our northern counties are
under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) while our northern most county
(Houston County, including Crockett) is in an Enhanced Risk (level 3
of 5). This is likely due to the higher potential for FROPA
occurring by Wednesday evening. Large hail and damage wind are the
primary concerns. The severe weather potential could increase for
areas farther south by Thursday morning as the front pushes farther
south. But I will let the long term forecaster go over Thursday and
beyond in the discussion below.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

A somewhat active/progressive extended portion of the forecast.
Assuming mesoscale processes don`t throw a curveball, a frontal
boundary and associated shra/tstms should be situated somewhere in
the vicinity of the US59/I69 corridor heading into the sunrise
hours Thurs. Cannot rule out a few embedded strong cells and heavy
downpours near & off the coast in advance. The boundary might get
hung up at the coast for a while, but is eventually expected to
sag offshore during the day. The front washes out and southeast
llvl flow resumes Fri.

A fairly potent shortwave dives southward down the Rockies Thurs
and Friday carving a fairly deep mid level trof into Tx. It`s
associated cold front should push through the region sometime late
Friday night and Saturday. There are some differing details in the
model suite (timing, moisture profile, etc), but suspect
convergence alone in this stronger front should be able to squeeze
another round of precipitation across the region. Cool, dry and
breezy conditions are expected in its wake. Undercut NBM temps a
bit on Saturday (60% NBM, 20% CONSALL, 20% NBM25 blend).

NW flow aloft will gradually transition to zonal to sw early next
week. Airmass probably won`t modify enough to mention POPs until
about midweek. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Cigs are expected to lower this morning. Most short term guidance
suggest cigs will drop to MVFR levels this morning and possibly
remain MVFR into the early afternoon. For CLL, there is potential
for MVFR cigs all day. For now, we are calling for a period of VFR
this afternoon for CLL. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA activity
is possible later this afternoon into the evening. Mixed
atmospheric signals are resulting in a tricky forecast regarding
TSRA development. We have opted to not change the forecast for
late afternoon into the evening and still show PROB30 VCTS for
some terminals. Cigs are expected to lower to low-end MVFR
tonight. Cannot rule out areas of IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Moderate ese winds and 4-6ft seas offshore will persist today.
Will extend the caution flags through the afternoon and await the
beach patrols morning observations in regards to possibly issuing
a high risk of rip currents. A cold front and associated showers
and thunderstorms will approach the coast late Wednesday night and
early Thursday morning. This boundary should eventually sag off
the coast during the day, but will be slow to occur. Southeast
winds return on Friday followed by a stronger front and potential
for showers and storms on Saturday. Small craft advisories look
like a pretty good bet behind this front considering the warmer
water temps in place. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 63 82 62 / 40 50 30 60
Houston (IAH) 78 65 82 68 / 30 40 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 76 71 79 70 / 20 40 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste

[jasons2k]

The run this morning was great. I think I’m started to like running in the 60’s versus the 70’s

It already feels significantly more muggy than earlier, almost like a warm front passed

[tireman4]

The run this morning was great. I think I’m started to like running in the 60’s versus the 70’s

It already feels significantly more muggy than earlier, almost like a warm front passed

Well, you are finally coming over to our side ( older runners who love running in cool weather)..LOL

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The run this morning was great. I think I’m started to like running in the 60’s versus the 70’s

It already feels significantly more muggy than earlier, almost like a warm front passed

Well, you are finally coming over to our side ( older runners who love running in cool weather)..LOL

Haha yep. Welcome!

[redneckweather]

I'm 47...still love running when it's 95+!!

[jasons2k]

I'm 47...still love running when it's 95+!!

I’m 49 and anything over the low 80’s is pretty miserable for me now (for running).

There is a guy in our neighborhood and I’m guessing he’s in his mid-late 50’s. He runs after work almost every day, rain or shine. I’ve seen him out there at 5:30pm in the middle of a heat advisory…just insane.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro keeps things unsettled around here over the next 10 days

[DoctorMu]

The run this morning was great. I think I’m started to like running in the 60’s versus the 70’s

It already feels significantly more muggy than earlier, almost like a warm front passed

Well, you are finally coming over to our side ( older runners who love running in cool weather)..LOL

Haha yep. Welcome!

Yeah, I've really been digging the past few days. A founding member of this club!

[Stratton20]

Keep an eye to the radar tommorow, could be some pretty big thunderstorms