January 2023

[Stratton20]

djmike no this is an arctic front, especially when you look at the difference between behind and ahead of the front, the reason you’re going to be warmer is because the closer you are to the coast, the more influence the SE ridge is going to have, thats why you might be in the low 50’s for highs while im stuck in the 30’s

[Cpv17]

Local met in Bmt said the front wont make it all the way through Beaumont but it will in Houston. Is this front not expected to make it into the gulf? My lowest low on NWS for the next 7 day is 51. Houston low this week of 46. Not much of a front. Arctic to me means 20-30s for lows and highs in the 30-40s. 51? That’s spring time shower temps.

It’ll be colder than that but the coldest temps will be way west of you it looks like.

[Stratton20]

GFS predicted temp at DFW around 1:pm 49 degrees
Actual temp : 37 degrees
Big oof
Nam :41 degrees
Actual :37

[Katdaddy]

Only .75” in W League so far with a saturated yard and a few burst of sun and now as I type a burst of rain begins.

[DoctorMu]

Arctic front has barreled through the DFW area, already coming in even colder than the latest mesocale model runs

It’s even coming in colder than the old crazy uncle CMC lol

So far today I’ve picked up 1.45”. That brings my monthly total up to 5”.

Hey, CMC handles cold arctic air better.

The FROPA is HERE in College Station. Now. Overperforming.

[DoctorMu]

Ice, Ice, baby...

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu the front is already here? Wowza Thatd way faster than i anticipated

[brazoriatx]

I'm just waiting on the next *we may need to watch next week the gfs...or the Euro is showing...lol" post

[DoctorMu]

Wind shift to the NNW already. You can feel it outside. Advection of colder air should be soon. Above Waco near DFW it's freezing to below freezing.

[don]

Local met in Bmt said the front wont make it all the way through Beaumont but it will in Houston. Is this front not expected to make it into the gulf? My lowest low on NWS for the next 7 day is 51. Houston low this week of 46. Not much of a front. Arctic to me means 20-30s for lows and highs in the 30-40s. 51? That’s spring time shower temps.

There temps are too high im expecting temps to stay in the 30 and 40's for most areas where the front has passed.The front should eventually move through Beaumont but its going to take its time.As it will have to "bleed" through the SE ridge basically allowing the shallow air to move underneath the ridge..And the further east you are the more influence the SE ridge will have on you as you are closer to the apex of the ridge.

[Stratton20]

Winter storm watches up from North Texas all the way down to the hill country

[djmike]

Thanks for the explanation everyone! I understand now. Thanks

[DoctorMu]

Winter precip. risk for drivers over the next 24 hours.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu seems like we are in the enhanced risk zone, kinda confused about that as we arent under a watch

[DoctorMu]

DFW NWS discussion says that the cold air is deeper than expected sleet as well as freezing rain is possible in the winter storm watch area...

How much erosion of the SE ridge will there be in Texas and the gradient are the questions du jour.

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu seems like we are in the enhanced risk zone, kinda confused about that as we arent under a watch

Not the same forecast. The second is for slippery roads. "Enhanced" risk doesn't mean probably or likely for tornadoes. Same principle.

[TexasMetBlake]

Winter Storm Watch coming shortly for Austin area. Standby.

[Cromagnum]

Yawn.

[Stratton20]

Man im right on the edge of the watch, so so close

[jasons2k]

In a warning but not in the watch. No comment.