December 2022

[sswinney]

Thank you for posting! Your past 2 posts have been spot on. Post more often lol

Thanks Cpv17! I lurk a lot but don’t post as much as I used to. It’s harder nowadays with two small kids.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Unlike Joe B, I don’t classify Cosgrove as a hype artist.

No, but it comes awfully close/borderline at times. IIRC he called for major arctic blasts a few times last season that never panned out…

We all do.

With that said, I really like the look of the ensemble mean(s) at 500 after 12z. Not much has changed in my mind and all options are on the table from 15 or so below to 40 below normal .

[sswinney]

I will say in the words of the great Joe Madden, “one team is going to win and the other is going to lose”. I hope the cold wintry weather team wins but we’ll see.

[brazoriatx]

The "flow" as 57 likes to put it appears to be changing pretty soon

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I will say in the words of the great Joe Madden, “one team is going to win and the other is going to lose”. I hope the cold wintry weather team wins but we’ll see.

It’s going to be cold. Everyone has acknowledged that. The question is frigid, or seasonably cold (like 40).

I’d love some white stuff falling but that is so hard to do down here. That’s just lagniappe.

[Cpv17]

The "flow" as 57 likes to put it appears to be changing pretty soon

A few days ago I really didn’t see all this ridging popping up off the Pacific Coast like it’s showing now. But if I’m being completely honest I stopped looking at the models a while back cuz everyone was posting them on here and S2K. I want to see less ridging there and more troughing back out to our W and SW. Euro control doesn’t look that bad.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The "flow" as 57 likes to put it appears to be changing pretty soon

A few days ago I really didn’t see all this ridging popping up off the Pacific Coast like it’s showing now. But if I’m being completely honest I stopped looking at the models a while back cuz everyone was posting them on here and S2K. I want to see less ridging there and more troughing back out to our W and SW. Euro control doesn’t look that bad.

Some of the recent operational model runs have a stout positive PNA showing but their ensemble forecasts do not.

EPS and GEFS have it roughly neutral. Some members slightly negative and some slightly positive but none over 1sd either way.

[DoctorMu]

The Chicago Mets (and they don't make many mistakes in the winter, because lives depend on it - the Chicago CUBS on the other hand) have high (80%) confidence that the cold blast next week is Arctic, not Polar or Canadian. This means air from the poles or Siberia and CPF. Arctic air is the COLDEST air we can receive during the winter

Highs there in the 20s early in the week in Chicago, then even colder before Christmas - I used to live in Chicagoland as a kid, and interpret this as expected highs in the single digits or lower.

Arctic Air next week - it's likely happening.

So, in my mind the questions left are down to the following:

- Just how cold is the arctic airmass?

- What is the magnitude of high pressure - the higher it is, the more likely it heads this way

- Will the be any blocking N of Texas? (Probably NO)

- What is the Eastward bias of the airmass?

- How much snowpack will there be north of Texas?

- Other moderating factors?

[DoctorMu]

I will say in the words of the great Joe Madden, “one team is going to win and the other is going to lose”. I hope the cold wintry weather team wins but we’ll see.

It’s going to be cold. Everyone has acknowledged that. The question is frigid, or seasonably cold (like 40).

I’d love some white stuff falling but that is so hard to do down here. That’s just lagniappe.

That's how I would summarize things - and that's been our story for about a week.

We'll know more details during the weekend.

[Stratton20]

Just for fun purposes, 18z GFS has snow in the gulf lol

[NWHouston]

The Chicago Mets (and they don't make many mistakes in the winter, because lives depend on it - the Chicago CUBS on the other hand) have high (80%) confidence that the cold blast next week is Arctic, not Polar or Canadian. This means air from the poles or Siberia and CPF. Arctic air is the COLDEST air we can receive during the winter

Highs there in the 20s early in the week in Chicago, then even colder before Christmas - I used to live in Chicagoland as a kid, and interpret this as expected highs in the single digits or lower.

Arctic Air next week - it's likely happening.

So, in my mind the questions left are down to the following:

- Just how cold is the arctic airmass?

- What is the magnitude of high pressure - the higher it is, the more likely it heads this way

- Will the be any blocking N of Texas? (Probably NO)

- What is the Eastward bias of the airmass?

- How much snowpack will there be north of Texas?

- Other moderating factors?

I was a kid living in Zion IL during the blizzard of 79. Good times if you were a kid with a snowmobile

[DoctorMu]

The Chicago Mets (and they don't make many mistakes in the winter, because lives depend on it - the Chicago CUBS on the other hand) have high (80%) confidence that the cold blast next week is Arctic, not Polar or Canadian. This means air from the poles or Siberia and CPF. Arctic air is the COLDEST air we can receive during the winter

Highs there in the 20s early in the week in Chicago, then even colder before Christmas - I used to live in Chicagoland as a kid, and interpret this as expected highs in the single digits or lower.

Arctic Air next week - it's likely happening.

So, in my mind the questions left are down to the following:

- Just how cold is the arctic airmass?

- What is the magnitude of high pressure - the higher it is, the more likely it heads this way

- Will the be any blocking N of Texas? (Probably NO)

- What is the Eastward bias of the airmass?

- How much snowpack will there be north of Texas?

- Other moderating factors?

I was a kid living in Zion IL during the blizzard of 79. Good times if you were a kid with a snowmobile

Cool. I lived in Downer's Grove for the Blizzard of '67. We had 24 inches of snowfall. 6-8 ft drifts.

My Dad had my brother and I jumped from the roof from a 2nd story window into the snow. He threw down a couple of shovels and we dug out the front door and the back.

There was some icing around the back door, so my dad or mom tossed hot water on the threshold to finally open the back door. They'd be carted away for child abuse today!

We dug a slew of snow tunnels in the drifts that made up the empty lot next door. We learned that if you used just a little warm water the refreeze made for some sturdy ice walls and kept the tunnels safe from collapsing.

https://www.weather.gov/lot/67blizzard

[Stratton20]

00z runs are colder, the CMC has highs in the 20’s and both models are now hinting at another system moving in behind the front

[Cpv17]

00z runs are colder, the CMC has highs in the 20’s and both models are now hinting at another system moving in behind the front

Highs in the 20’s sound fantastic!

[sambucol]

Joe Bastardi:
Downslope off the Ozarks shadow in anomalies showing up on Canadian. Most likely of the models IMO as it fits the pattern of delivery into Texas Further north Actual temps and apparent temps in northern plains

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 4948404225

[Stratton20]

00z Euro is very cold

[sambucol]

What kind of temps for the upper Texas coast?

[Stratton20]

sambucol highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s on this run of the euro

[sambucol]

Sounds good to me!

[DoctorMu]

Joe Bastardi:
Downslope off the Ozarks shadow in anomalies showing up on Canadian. Most likely of the models IMO as it fits the pattern of delivery into Texas Further north Actual temps and apparent temps in northern plains

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 4948404225

That translates to a high of 29°F here.