December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:40 am surely those temps cant actually happen here.. surely.
It has before. You should check out what happened in 1895.
Stratton20
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I definitely believe that GFS scenario is on the table, their is potential for a historic arctic outbreak, but just potential, but seeing as the CMC is also similar in terms of cold, it does raise a huge eyebrow
redneckweather
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There's that coastal low.🤟
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snowman65
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:44 am I definitely believe that GFS scenario is on the table, their is potential for a historic arctic outbreak, but just potential, but seeing as the CMC is also similar in terms of cold, it does raise a huge eyebrow
I would have to see other places (CMC,etc) show something like this to give it more merit. I know the GFS changes with every run so I dont lime to get caught up i run to run models. They flip flop too much.
Stratton20
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snowman65 the CMC actually is as cold as the GFS
brazoriatx
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Almost within a weeks range now..it's still pretty consistent..
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snowman65
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:58 am snowman65 the CMC actually is as cold as the GFS
That would be insane. The coldest I remember it ever being here was 11, back in 82 or 83.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:01 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:58 am snowman65 the CMC actually is as cold as the GFS
That would be insane. The coldest I remember it ever being here was 11, back in 82 or 83.
83 was long duration cold but 89 and 21 were colder temps.
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Cpv17
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redneckweather wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:46 am There's that coastal low.🤟
Artic airmasses surpress the jet.
redneckweather
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I see wxman being a tad sarcastic in his last couple posts about the latest GFS with cold and snow totals...the beginning of him fixing to change his tune.
brazoriatx
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redneckweather wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:20 pm I see wxman being a tad sarcastic in his last couple posts about the latest GFS with cold and snow totals...the beginning of him fixing to change his tune.
He won't change his tune till its like 3 or 4 days away
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MontgomeryCoWx
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redneckweather wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:20 pm I see wxman being a tad sarcastic in his last couple posts about the latest GFS with cold and snow totals...the beginning of him fixing to change his tune.
Yeah… I’ve seen this dance before.

On another note, it’s not often you see the Euro and GFS agree on a coastal storm this far out
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txsnowmaker
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:17 am what the frick??? lol. 10 inches here for Christmas lolol
That is a thing of beauty.
txsnowmaker
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:40 am surely those temps cant actually happen here.. surely.
They’ve happened here before. Dec. 1989.
Cpv17
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txsnowmaker wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:29 pm
snowman65 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:40 am surely those temps cant actually happen here.. surely.
They’ve happened here before. Dec. 1989.
1895 and 1899.
walsean1
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February 2021, it was good to see the snow, but it was bad because EROCOT was not prepared for that severe of a cold outbreak which wreaked havoc on the power grid in in Texas. I hope if this scenario were to play out, they are prepared. Also it happening 2 day from Christmas would likely cancel travel around here
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MontgomeryCoWx
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walsean1 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:14 pm February 2021, it was good to see the snow, but it was bad because EROCOT was not prepared for that severe of a cold outbreak which wreaked havoc on the power grid in in Texas. I hope if this scenario were to play out, they are prepared. Also it happening 2 day from Christmas would likely cancel travel around here
I addressed this several pages back, but ERCOT is fine now.
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Stratton20
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12z Euro has a ridiculous 1072 MB arctic high…….
Cromagnum
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:16 pm
walsean1 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:14 pm February 2021, it was good to see the snow, but it was bad because EROCOT was not prepared for that severe of a cold outbreak which wreaked havoc on the power grid in in Texas. I hope if this scenario were to play out, they are prepared. Also it happening 2 day from Christmas would likely cancel travel around here
I addressed this several pages back, but ERCOT is fine now.

It's fixed and yet we had all kinds of power usage warnings throughout the summer. Sorry, but I do not trust them at all.
txsnowmaker
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:27 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:16 pm
walsean1 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:14 pm February 2021, it was good to see the snow, but it was bad because EROCOT was not prepared for that severe of a cold outbreak which wreaked havoc on the power grid in in Texas. I hope if this scenario were to play out, they are prepared. Also it happening 2 day from Christmas would likely cancel travel around here
I addressed this several pages back, but ERCOT is fine now.

It's fixed and yet we had all kinds of power usage warnings throughout the summer. Sorry, but I do not trust them at all.
I’d love to think it’s fixed as well but I have real concerns, too. Hope I’m proven wrong.
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