December 2022

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I never understood that guy. People who love hot and humid weather year-round are not normal.

May I get an amen!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Thundersleet done called wxma 57 out...
Lol lawd have mercy

I just challenged him. Not really calling him out. I was getting annoyed by the drive by and not answering my questions.

Notice he didn’t use the ensemble for that date. Just the control run, but he’s not wrong in what he outlined on that control run. That type of flow gets us cold, but not extreme (meaning extended freezing temps).

[Cpv17]

Not sure if I’m reading this right but it seems like he’s basing his forecast off of operational models and not ensembles. You never do that when forecasting anything over 4-5 days out. But he’s doing that because it’s giving him a warmer outcome.

[txsnowmaker]

Does anyone know what days next week are portrayed in the Euro control run showing the I-10 snow event that would include Houston?

[Cpv17]

Thundersleet done called wxma 57 out...
Lol lawd have mercy

I just challenged him. Not really calling him out. I was getting annoyed by the drive by and not answering my questions.

Notice he didn’t use the ensemble for that date. Just the control run, but he’s not wrong in what he outlined on that control run. That type of flow gets us cold, but not extreme (meaning extended freezing temps).

There’s supposed to be a huge blocking ridge there from the -EPO so it seems like the flow wouldn’t come from there and would have to go up and over it. Unless ridging has changed. I haven’t really looked lately.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Thundersleet done called wxma 57 out...
Lol lawd have mercy

I just challenged him. Not really calling him out. I was getting annoyed by the drive by and not answering my questions.

Notice he didn’t use the ensemble for that date. Just the control run, but he’s not wrong in what he outlined on that control run. That type of flow gets us cold, but not extreme (meaning extended freezing temps).

There’s supposed to be a huge blocking ridge there from the -EPO so it seems like the flow wouldn’t come from there and would have to go up and over it. Unless ridging has changed. I haven’t really looked lately.

It’s on the EPS at that date. That’s why I answered him with that 500 flow and said “now do this”

[redneckweather]

After reading thoughts on here, storm2k and from other forecasters, it looks like the "severe cold" tune is starting to let up as the models are slowly backing off on this scenario. Cold yes, but nothing abnormal..

[brazoriatx]

Hell we don't need nothing record breaking for cold and snow or ice here. We just need everything to line up properly

[MontgomeryCoWx]

After reading thoughts on here, storm2k and from other forecasters, it looks like the "severe cold" tune is starting to let up as the models are slowly backing off on this scenario. Cold yes, but nothing abnormal..

I’ve thought that our Christmas timeframe was going to be highs in the 30s-40s with an outside shot at some 20s (or 50s) for highs.

It’s what is after that has my attention…. Still a bit away.

[Cpv17]

Unless I’m just trippin and don’t know how to read that 500 map that 57 just posted, it looks good to me.

[NWHouston]

After reading thoughts on here, storm2k and from other forecasters, it looks like the "severe cold" tune is starting to let up as the models are slowly backing off on this scenario. Cold yes, but nothing abnormal..

Again, I know nothing about the science but love to follow everyone and their take on models.

I have been surprised to see some on Storm 2K refer to WXman57 as a troll since he has been the source of reason for many years in these forums and is a professional. Someone else said it best a few pages back, Wxman57 has to answer to his clients for accurate and sensible forecasts where others here may not.

Bottom line is I love to follow everyone and their informed takes on the models but in the end, until Wxman57 says its going to be cold/snow I dont buy into it

with that - I am going back into my quiet lurking

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Unless I’m just trippin and don’t know how to read that 500 map that 57 just posted, it looks good to me.

It’s good for cold, but not extreme cold

[NWHouston]

I will also say this.....Cant remember when the top influencers have been at such distinct odds with each other - or better stated all of them vs Wxman57. Very different takes on weather closer to Christmas. Will find it fascinating to see how this actually plays out!

[redneckweather]

No, we do not need extreme cold for snow but we do need all columns to be at or below freezing at least. Even if we do get a good arctic airmass down here (highs in the upper 20's/low 30's) it is more times than not a very shallow airmass and temps are above freezing above the surface. A good strong coastal low though would take care of this...that's what we would need.

Anyways, fun to watch.

[sambucol]

From Larry Cosgrove this morning:

Building the perfect (Arctic) vortex....

Evidence for a widespread Arctic air mass intrusion appeared late last week. And I was shocked to see the event gain support from all of the major numerical model guidance during the weekend. As a word of warning, do not take this bitter cold regime lightly. Not only is there the threat of power grid taxation and hypothermia risks. For the next three to four weeks.

That vast storm complex along the West Coast will start the ball rolling this week. Focusing more on its southern branch, which will result in secondary cyclogenesis over Georgia and the Carolinas later this week, heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will advance form Texas and Oklahoma into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, then into the Southeast. Then the new low pressure will move along the Interstate 95 corridor with the excessive rainfall eventually reaching the Maritime Provinces. Lake-related and lake-effect snows will be common across an area from Wisconsin into western New York, as well as mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia as the primary low at 500MB stalls and deepens near the Soo Locks (MI/ON).

When you see a large, broad gyre aloft, ridging will increase around its northern flanks. In this case the Davis Strait and Alaska. Cold air across the Canadian and northern USA snowpack will increase in coverage and spread south and east. Because there will be additional shortwaves rotating around the vortex, new Arctic intrusions may combine with disturbances moving out of the subtropical and polar sectors of the Pacific Basin. It is with these systems that ice and snow, accompanied by much below normal temperatures, may appear through Texas, Dixie and the Eastern Seaboard just before Christmas and through the New Year's weekend.

This is not a dull pattern, and you would be well advised to follow developments in regard to cold and the precipitation events.

[brazoriatx]

It's crazy how ppl r preaching this and if it ends up not happening alot of Mets will have egg on their face..this is a tough job to have

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ummm… wxman57 isn’t the only one who has clients he’s on the hook for…. So does Cosgrove, Maue, Bastardi, Cohen, etc

Let’s just say it’s wxman57 vs the weather sphere

Where I think this argument will get gray is what is cold to people. If we end up in the 40s for highs all Christmas week, people will say “we didn’t get cold enough” when in reality that’s 20 below normal.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

0z EPS

[sambucol]

That looks quite cold.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That would be an average daily temp of 37 for me around Christmas.