December 2022

[txsnowmaker]

Can you repost? I found this, but it shows higher than normal temps for SE Texas on the 20th so I must not be looking at the right model.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... nom&fh=240

Are you a member on Storm2k? If not then you should consider joining. Lots of good information on there and some really smart people.

Thanks for the tip. I check in there from time to time.

[jasons2k]

Been watching the holiday timeframe for awhile. Looks like I need to get more freeze cloths for my expanded garden.

[DoctorMu]

Storms are starting to fire up near me. We've had on and off light rain. It could be heavy in one of the cells from San Antonio through CLL to the Toledo Bend Reservoir on the state line.


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1150
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
636 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2022

Areas affected...portions of Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102335Z - 110535Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms across Southeast TX are
showing an increasing training signature in and around Conroe.
Hourly rain totals to 2" with local amounts of 3-5" are possible
through 06z.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing in
intensity and coverage as of late west and north of Houston, along
an outflow boundary/convergence axis which is noted in the thermal
pattern and wind observations across southeast TX and southern LA.
Divergence aloft has been sponsored by an upper level shortwave
moving across western TX. More organized activity is moving more
eastward, occasionally colliding with less organized activity
moving more northeast, which is amping up the hourly rain totals.
Precipitable water values are 1.3-1.75" in this region per GPS
data. Inflow at 850 hPa is ~20 kts from the southwest based on
the KPOE and KHGX VAD wind profiles. ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
exists, per SPC mesoanalyses, with the heart of the instability
pool showing 72-73F dew points. Effective bulk shear of 40 kts is
leading to more organized convective structures normally seen in
HP/high precipitation environments.

As a polar front comes in from the north and the upper level
shortwave approaches from the west, the areal extent of the heavy
rainfall should increase overnight as low-level convergence
increases further. The concern is that training and merging
convection would be capable of hourly rain totals up to 2" or so
with local amounts of 3-5" per the current mesoscale guidance.
While the region has been dry, this degree of rainfall would be
problematic in any urban environments it would occur within.
Thus, flash flooding is expected to be isolated at first but could
become widely scattered towards 06z, particularly if the high end
guidance (HRRR and NAM CONEST) come to pass.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31279392 30439409 30159510 29769665 29809715
30629702 31149596
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[DoctorMu]

There's excessive obsessing over model runs at S6K right now. The Ensembles are in general agreement.

[Stratton20]

00z GFS certainly got my attention fast

[Cpv17]

00z GFS certainly got my attention fast

Pretty sure this is the coastal low that we need to develop to draw down the Artic.

[Cpv17]

Okay yeah the 0z GFS was a step in the right direction but again it doesn’t really matter what the operationals do till we get inside of 4-5 days because they will continue to flip flop.

[DoctorMu]

Even a broken clock...??

The GFS "anomaly" always rings twice??

[DoctorMu]

1.62 inches of rain picked up and counting.

[DoctorMu]

Okay yeah the 0z GFS was a step in the right direction but again it doesn’t really matter what the operationals do till we get inside of 4-5 days because they will continue to flip flop.

Ensembles are still running cold. Where it's extreme or not is up to Siberia...

[don]

It's pretty stormy this morning LOL.

[Cromagnum]

Even a broken clock...??

The GFS "anomaly" always rings twice??

I have a medical procedure on the 27th. All that crap can stay away.

[davidiowx]

1.62 inches of rain picked up and counting.

Picked up 1.7 here. Was def not expecting that much but I’ll take it. Let the weed growth commence. Hopefully this cold coming slows that down some

[Cpv17]

1.62 inches of rain picked up and counting.

Picked up 1.7 here. Was def not expecting that much but I’ll take it. Let the weed growth commence. Hopefully this cold coming slows that down some

I picked up 2.6”. It was really bad around here around 5-6 am. Woke me up lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

1.62 inches of rain picked up and counting.

Picked up 1.7 here. Was def not expecting that much but I’ll take it. Let the weed growth commence. Hopefully this cold coming slows that down some

I picked up 2.6”. It was really bad around here around 5-6 am. Woke me up lol

Yep we bought some new pairs and bred 3 year olds in Weimar yesterday and had them pinned. One was trying to find a way out when I heard the thunder crack at 450 am. I went out there in the downpour to make sure they didn’t turn into a raging ball of nerves.

[Cpv17]

We should start paying attention towards next weekend to see if this coastal low develops or not. Could be a key piece in what happens to our weather over the next couple weeks.

[brazoriatx]

"I think my wall may well hold, keeping Houston in the 70s to 80 for Christmas."


All I can do is laugh at this point...

[Stratton20]

Im liking what im seeing in the cmc and Gfs, multiple gulf lows on their respective runs, pattern could get really interesting ahead

[Cpv17]

Im liking what im seeing in the cmc and Gfs, multiple gulf lows on their respective runs, pattern could get really interesting ahead

That’s really good because that will definitely help pull down colder air.

[redneckweather]

70's close to 80 for Christmas?