December 2022

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Man, the wind and humidity is so much better in CoCo than MoCo. I feel like it gets progressively better every county you go west of 45.

[Cromagnum]

I'm all for the cold to force a pattern change away from the garbage we have had. I don't trust ERCOT in the slightest to have their crap together from last time though, and look forward to more plumbing repairs.

[DoctorMu]

Man, the wind and humidity is so much better in CoCo than MoCo. I feel like it gets progressively better every county you go west of 45.

CLL and west sees wind. Most of the year, it's from the south...but that's about to change.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm all for the cold to force a pattern change away from the garbage we have had. I don't trust ERCOT in the slightest to have their crap together from last time though, and look forward to more plumbing repairs.

ERCOT is fine now. Many didn’t understand why it failed in the first place and it wasn’t because of capacity, it was because of online capacity.

It would take an extremely long period of 2021 like temps or lower to fail the grid these days. When I say extremely long, I’m talking 3-4 weeks below freezing.

The chances of that happening in most of Texas is a non-zero number but a fraction of a percent.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Man, the wind and humidity is so much better in CoCo than MoCo. I feel like it gets progressively better every county you go west of 45.

CLL and west sees wind. Most of the year, it's from the south...but that's about to change.

I actually had to put on some long sleeves tonight out here. Granted, I’m still in shorts, but it gave a tinge of some briskness

[DoctorMu]

CLL S12
Magnolia: S5

One thing about Colorado, Fayette, Bastrop Counties - there seem to be microclimates by the Colorado River and its valley - hotter, less wind, more humid. La Grange is notoriously hot in the summer. Around Bastrop the hills/plateau are 100-200 feet above the river. Nice breezes and less humid.

...but you won't be around...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

CLL S12
Magnolia: S5

One thing about Colorado, Fayette, Bastrop Counties - there seem to be microclimates by the Colorado River and its valley - hotter, less wind, more humid. La Grange is notoriously hot in the summer. Around Bastrop the hills/plateau are 100-200 feet above the river. Nice breezes and less humid.

...but you won't be around...

Haha we sit on top of a hill south of Weimar. The wind blows amazingly harder than just 12 miles down the road by the Colorado.

[Cpv17]

CLL S12
Magnolia: S5

One thing about Colorado, Fayette, Bastrop Counties - there seem to be microclimates by the Colorado River and its valley - hotter, less wind, more humid. La Grange is notoriously hot in the summer. Around Bastrop the hills/plateau are 100-200 feet above the river. Nice breezes and less humid.

...but you won't be around...

Haha we sit on top of a hill south of Weimar. The wind blows amazingly harder than just 12 miles down the road by the Colorado.

The Colorado is like one mile behind my casa. But no hills out where I am. All flat farm and pasture land. Winds get crazy here. Nothing to block it.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Not much change overnight. Ensembles still looking great at 500.

[brazoriatx]

57 still doing 57 things...

wxman57 wrote

I'm still not seeing anything in the way of extreme cold. Temps in northern BC and Alberta are just barely below zero. Similar for the NW Territory. It can't come down here if it's not up there. Watch western Canada for a large area of temps -25 to -35F over the coming week to see if any cold air really develops up there. If it does, then maybe there's a chance of sub-freezing temps in Texas. For now, no really cold air in the source region means no really cold air for Texas.

Meanwhile, overnight GFS is not forecasting 80s for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day here in Houston. That would be great. 

[MontgomeryCoWx]

57 still doing 57 things...

wxman57 wrote

I'm still not seeing anything in the way of extreme cold. Temps in northern BC and Alberta are just barely below zero. Similar for the NW Territory. It can't come down here if it's not up there. Watch western Canada for a large area of temps -25 to -35F over the coming week to see if any cold air really develops up there. If it does, then maybe there's a chance of sub-freezing temps in Texas. For now, no really cold air in the source region means no really cold air for Texas.

Meanwhile, overnight GFS is not forecasting 80s for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day here in Houston. That would be great. 

In this setup, the temps come from Siberia to Western Canada. That wouldn’t happen until mid week this week.

His work partner (South Texas Storms) says he knows it’s coming so I kinda laugh at his posts.

[brazoriatx]

57 still doing 57 things...

wxman57 wrote

I'm still not seeing anything in the way of extreme cold. Temps in northern BC and Alberta are just barely below zero. Similar for the NW Territory. It can't come down here if it's not up there. Watch western Canada for a large area of temps -25 to -35F over the coming week to see if any cold air really develops up there. If it does, then maybe there's a chance of sub-freezing temps in Texas. For now, no really cold air in the source region means no really cold air for Texas.

Meanwhile, overnight GFS is not forecasting 80s for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day here in Houston. That would be great. 

In this setup, the temps come from Siberia to Western Canada. That wouldn’t happen until mid week this week.

His work partner (South Texas Storms) says he knows it’s coming so I kinda laugh at his posts.

Perhaps but it gets annoying after a while...

[davidiowx]

He followed up with this:

What I've always said in the winter is that you need to monitor the airmass in the source region - western Canada. Flow there needs to come from the Polar region in order to build an Arctic airmass. Currently, neither the GFS nor the Euro indicates a flow pattern that would drive air from the Pole to NW Canada. Both indicate that the flow will be coming from the west or northwest, which would be Pacific air. Until we see any indication of cross-Polar flow, I won't be concerned about any extreme cold in Texas. I know that many of you actually like winter and winter weather. I like snow, too. It's the only good use for sub-80F air. Just because some ensemble members indicate very cold air doesn't mean it'll happen. Others indicate very warm air. I was on board with last winter's cold outbreak 10 days before it happened. Similar for the February 2021 event. I was buying pipe insulation 8 days ahead of the outbreak. If I see the cold coming, I will let you know.

Watch the surface temps in the source region. They'd need to be a good 30F colder than they are now for any Arctic outbreak. Until it gets very cold up there I wouldn't get too excited about very cold weather down here. We may have to wait until January or February again for the pattern to change.

Just checked Houston climo. We've hit exactly 82F for the previous 5 days. At least 82 again today. It's 70 now in SW Houston. In another couple of hours it will be warm enough for a bike ride.

[Cpv17]

57 still doing 57 things...

wxman57 wrote

I'm still not seeing anything in the way of extreme cold. Temps in northern BC and Alberta are just barely below zero. Similar for the NW Territory. It can't come down here if it's not up there. Watch western Canada for a large area of temps -25 to -35F over the coming week to see if any cold air really develops up there. If it does, then maybe there's a chance of sub-freezing temps in Texas. For now, no really cold air in the source region means no really cold air for Texas.

Meanwhile, overnight GFS is not forecasting 80s for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day here in Houston. That would be great. 

In this setup, the temps come from Siberia to Western Canada. That wouldn’t happen until mid week this week.

His work partner (South Texas Storms) says he knows it’s coming so I kinda laugh at his posts.

Perhaps but it gets annoying after a while...

Half the time I don’t even read what he says because yeah it can be annoying and he’s trolling. I’ve kinda learned to not be bothered by what he posts anymore.

[brazoriatx]

Why is he looking in Canada? Haven't we been talking about this air coming from Siberia?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well he’s quite literally the only one in the weatherverse saying it. So if he scores a win, it will be one for the ages.

[Cpv17]

Why is he looking in Canada? Haven't we been talking about this air coming from Siberia?

He almost always looks in Canada. He thinks western Canada is the only source region but he’s trolling when says that.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m scratching my head looking at the ensembles and digesting his “there needs to be cross polar flow).

Our ridge on both major ensemble suites goes poleward leading up to Christmas.

[Cpv17]

I’m scratching my head looking at the ensembles and digesting his “there needs to be cross polar flow).

Our ridge on both major ensemble suites goes poleward leading up to Christmas.

Yeah I don’t understand it either. If that’s not CPF, then what the heck is? Lol

It looks textbook to me.

[redneckweather]

I’m scratching my head looking at the ensembles and digesting his “there needs to be cross polar flow).

Our ridge on both major ensemble suites goes poleward leading up to Christmas.

Have you called him out on this?