October 2022
Rain chances decreasing for this weekend and Monday now. Expected.
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redneckweather
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
My crimson tide is going up against #6 Tennessee today with a solid legit cold front lurking on the near horizon. Doesn't get much better than that! I see my area up here around Montgomery will be flirting with the low to mid 40's. Tis the season and Roll Tide!!!
redneckweather wrote: ↑Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:00 am My crimson tide is going up against #6 Tennessee today with a solid legit cold front lurking on the near horizon. Doesn't get much better than that! I see my area up here around Montgomery will be flirting with the low to mid 40's. Tis the season and Roll Tide!!!
Most on Monday's rain looks north, but it will get cooler for 2-3 days. Lows in the 40s could happen.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4250
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Good news is we are finished with the 90’s, we may have warm stretches in the mid-upper 80’s but 90’s are gone! Fall is here and its only down from here!
My 60% rain chances, advertised all week, of course get lowered to 40% on the eve of.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4250
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
yup from highs in the low 90’s to highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s, definitely going to be a shock to the system for some folks, but bring it on!
It could easily be 90°F again in a week.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 15, 2022 3:27 pm Good news is we are finished with the 90’s, we may have warm stretches in the mid-upper 80’s but 90’s are gone! Fall is here and its only down from here!
My yard was in the donut hole when it rained at HEB.
There's potential tonight as the disturbance moves east, although I suspect it could slide north of us.
Yeah, I'd hate to see thermoneutral conditions again...Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:38 pm yup from highs in the low 90’s to highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s, definitely going to be a shock to the system for some folks, but bring it on!
Don't mope-ah about the FROPA. 
Sunny weather after tomorrow!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
654 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
In what will be welcomed news for many, this afternoon will likely
be the warmest that we experience across SE TX for quite a while
as the approach of our first strong surface cold front of the fall
season brings us a taste of cool and dry weather. Latest surface
observations indicate the presence of the boundary in the
vicinity of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, while persistent
southeast winds continuing to promote the development of isolated
diurnally driven showers across our area this afternoon.
Shower and storm coverage will increase heading into the evening
as an eastward propagating 500mb shortwave promotes further
development as the surface boundary pushes into the area,
particularly in areas north of the I-10 corridor. High-resolution
guidance continues to indicate a northerly wind shift across the
northern zones/Brazos Valley at approximately 9 - 10 PM, the
Houston Metro Area around 11 PM - 1 AM, and the coast/barrier
islands just before sunrise. While moisture availability remains
fairly robust (total PW values around 1.5-1.75 in), convective
development will be limited by a lack of surface instability and
thus have decided to limit PoP values to the 40-50% range for most
locations. With this factor in mind, have also continued to trim
the QPF forecast with the majority of the area now expected to
pick up less than 0.5" of total rainfall.
Widespread cloud cover, along with additional trailing stratiform
rain showers, will persist well into Monday as the 850mb front
progresses through the area during the day (NAM 850-700mb layer
frontogenesis continues to show the boundary clearing the coast
during the early evening tomorrow). This, along with CAA in the
wake of the surface front, should significantly inhibit daytime
heating as most locations remain confined to the 70s. Overnight
lows drop off significantly as skies begin to clear and continued
CAA transports cooler and drier air into the region, with most
locations seeing lows in the lower to mid 50s.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
How about those cold temperatures?! With the 850mb front pushing
offshore by Tuesday morning, cooler and drier air filters in leaving
us with Fall-like temperatures for most of the work week. Clear
skies will prevail after Tuesday evening leading to pleasant weather
that`ll make you want to make outdoor plans. The high temperatures
on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, but
night time temperatures is where the real action is. Tuesday night,
Aggieland and other locations north of I-10 will see temperatures
somewhere in the range of the upper 30s to low 40s with low
temperatures in the mid 30s in the Piney Woods area. A sfc high
rolls in right overhead on early Wednesday leading to the driest air
of the work week. During this period, dew points could dip down
slightly below the 20s for northern areas especially near the Piney
Woods. Wednesday night temperatures for areas north of I-10 will be
in the upper 30s/mid 40s with mid/upper 40s south of I-10 and 50s
near the coast.
The cold temperatures are not a permanent fixture throughout the
week though as things begin to gradually change on Thursday. Think
of Thursday as the transition day with the loss of CAA and onshore
flow returning as the sfc high pushes out to the east. Highs on
Thursday return into the upper 70s to low 80s and firmly into the
mid 80s Friday and into the weekend. Low temperatures will steadily
climb as well with lows back into the 50s/60s by Friday night. The
warming trend leads to the upper 80s by Sunday. For those that read
yesterday`s AFD, you`ll recall that 90s aren`t that uncommon in the
latter half of October...and the upper percentiles of the NBM are
pointing that direction for northern locations this weekend.
Fortunately, there is sufficient model consensus on an upper level
trough digging down into the NW CONUS over the weekend and could be
the source of another cold front early next week. It would seem that
FROPA SZN is finally upon us!
Batiste
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 64 72 51 / 20 50 50 10
Houston (IAH) 91 69 78 56 / 20 40 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 73 80 61 / 20 40 40 20
Sunny weather after tomorrow!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
654 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
In what will be welcomed news for many, this afternoon will likely
be the warmest that we experience across SE TX for quite a while
as the approach of our first strong surface cold front of the fall
season brings us a taste of cool and dry weather. Latest surface
observations indicate the presence of the boundary in the
vicinity of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, while persistent
southeast winds continuing to promote the development of isolated
diurnally driven showers across our area this afternoon.
Shower and storm coverage will increase heading into the evening
as an eastward propagating 500mb shortwave promotes further
development as the surface boundary pushes into the area,
particularly in areas north of the I-10 corridor. High-resolution
guidance continues to indicate a northerly wind shift across the
northern zones/Brazos Valley at approximately 9 - 10 PM, the
Houston Metro Area around 11 PM - 1 AM, and the coast/barrier
islands just before sunrise. While moisture availability remains
fairly robust (total PW values around 1.5-1.75 in), convective
development will be limited by a lack of surface instability and
thus have decided to limit PoP values to the 40-50% range for most
locations. With this factor in mind, have also continued to trim
the QPF forecast with the majority of the area now expected to
pick up less than 0.5" of total rainfall.
Widespread cloud cover, along with additional trailing stratiform
rain showers, will persist well into Monday as the 850mb front
progresses through the area during the day (NAM 850-700mb layer
frontogenesis continues to show the boundary clearing the coast
during the early evening tomorrow). This, along with CAA in the
wake of the surface front, should significantly inhibit daytime
heating as most locations remain confined to the 70s. Overnight
lows drop off significantly as skies begin to clear and continued
CAA transports cooler and drier air into the region, with most
locations seeing lows in the lower to mid 50s.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022
How about those cold temperatures?! With the 850mb front pushing
offshore by Tuesday morning, cooler and drier air filters in leaving
us with Fall-like temperatures for most of the work week. Clear
skies will prevail after Tuesday evening leading to pleasant weather
that`ll make you want to make outdoor plans. The high temperatures
on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, but
night time temperatures is where the real action is. Tuesday night,
Aggieland and other locations north of I-10 will see temperatures
somewhere in the range of the upper 30s to low 40s with low
temperatures in the mid 30s in the Piney Woods area. A sfc high
rolls in right overhead on early Wednesday leading to the driest air
of the work week. During this period, dew points could dip down
slightly below the 20s for northern areas especially near the Piney
Woods. Wednesday night temperatures for areas north of I-10 will be
in the upper 30s/mid 40s with mid/upper 40s south of I-10 and 50s
near the coast.
The cold temperatures are not a permanent fixture throughout the
week though as things begin to gradually change on Thursday. Think
of Thursday as the transition day with the loss of CAA and onshore
flow returning as the sfc high pushes out to the east. Highs on
Thursday return into the upper 70s to low 80s and firmly into the
mid 80s Friday and into the weekend. Low temperatures will steadily
climb as well with lows back into the 50s/60s by Friday night. The
warming trend leads to the upper 80s by Sunday. For those that read
yesterday`s AFD, you`ll recall that 90s aren`t that uncommon in the
latter half of October...and the upper percentiles of the NBM are
pointing that direction for northern locations this weekend.
Fortunately, there is sufficient model consensus on an upper level
trough digging down into the NW CONUS over the weekend and could be
the source of another cold front early next week. It would seem that
FROPA SZN is finally upon us!
Batiste
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 64 72 51 / 20 50 50 10
Houston (IAH) 91 69 78 56 / 20 40 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 73 80 61 / 20 40 40 20
Winds have been out of the NNE since about 9 pm here.
Definite maybe on rain as the s/w approaches. Hope the streets are wet in the morning!
Definite maybe on rain as the s/w approaches. Hope the streets are wet in the morning!
0.69” and counting. Pleasantly surprised!!
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4496
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 171128
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022
Currently, the surface front has reached the coast (about 2 hours
ahead of schedule) and will continue to slowly push offshore.
Widespread rain showers and isolated storms associated with a
passing shortwave are filling in behind the front, primarily north
of Conroe, and this convection will continue to push south during
the early morning hours. Given the increasing CIN further south,
rain chances will gradually taper off the further this activity
pushes south. By sunrise, rain chances will range from 30-40% across
Southeast Texas. By 1pm CDT, rain chances north of Conroe drop below
15% while areas toward the south range from 20-30%. Finally, by
sunset, most convection will have moved offshore and rain chances
will be less than 10% south of I-10 and near zero further north.
Gentle to moderate northerly flow is expected today with sustained
winds near 15 mph and gust near 20, but winds will be a little
stronger towards the coast.
Mostly cloudy skies today will keep daytime highs in the low to mid
70s for inland locations and upper 70s near the coast. Partly cloudy
skies tonight will keep temperatures from cooling off too quickly,
but it will still be noticeably cooler with areas south of I-10
reaching the mid to upper 50s, areas between Houston and Conroe
reaching the low-to mid 50s, and areas north of Conroe reaching the
upper 40s to low 50s.
By Tuesday, the 850mb front will have pushed offshore, bringing in
clear skies and reinforcing cold air advection. Despite plenty of
solar insolation, daytime highs will struggle to reach 70. With
clear skies expected Tuesday night, cooling will be enhanced so
overnight lows will reach the low 30s north of Huntsville, the mid
to upper 30s between College Station and Conroe, and the low to
mid 40s south of Conroe.
Walts
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022
We`ll start off the long term period with fall-like conditions.
Temperatures are progged to be from the upper 30s to upper 40s
inland, and in the low 50s along the islands. The last time we
saw minimum temperatures below 40 degF was last March for CLL, and
last April for IAH and GLS. Don`t forget your light jacket as you
head out the door as daytime temperatures will only reach the
60s, with a few locations warming into the low 70s. With the sfc
high overhead and persistent northerly winds, a very dry airmass
will prevail. Sfc dewpoints will drop from the upper teens to low
30s during the day. Another cold night can be expected on
Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop from the mid 30s to mid 40s
inland, and in the 50s along the islands. Coldest readings are
expected across our northeastern counties.
Unfortunately for those who like cold weather, these temperatures
won`t last long. Ridge aloft will gradually build over the Southwest
CONUS by Thursday, while the sfc high shifts east of the region.
This pattern will gradually bring southerly flow, and hence, a
warming trend into the weekend. Highs from the upper 70s to low 80s
can be expected on Thursday, slowly climbing into the mid to upper
80s by Friday. Regarding humidity, a drier airmass will prevail
through much of the week with dewpoints no greater than 60 degF...
making it feel a bit comfortable, at least.
Warmer, slightly more humid and breezy conditions will be possible
Friday night into the weekend. Tight pressure gradient from a low
pressure system over the Great Lakes and a weak LLJ passing over the
region will induce breezy southerly winds. Saturday looks to be the
warmest day of the long term period as the ridge axis aloft moves
overhead. Highs will generally be in the 80s. Precipitation is not
anticipated this week. The next "possible" chance for rain arrives
early next week as a shortwave trough develops over South TX. There
is a lot of uncertainty as the GFS is the only solution suggesting
this wet pattern. For now, will keep a dry forecast, at least
through Sunday, with only slight chances early next week. 05
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022
A cold front has pushed offshore, leaving in its wake, gusty
northerly winds and MVFR ceilings. Showers and storms behind the
front and north of HOU will continue over the next several hours
and begin to dissipate by mid-morning. MVFR ceilings will also
begin to lift by 16-19Z with coastal areas being the last to lift
to VFR. By mid-afternoon, VFR conditions will prevail and
northerly winds will become gusty, especially south of IAH. Gusts
will subside by 01-02Z, but resume again by 16Z tomorrow.
Walts
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022
A cold front, currently along the coastal zones, will continue to
move off the coast today. Scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms can be expected behind the front today. This
activity should gradually taper off from north to south through
early evening. The next concern will be winds. North to northeast
winds will increase this afternoon and will persist through at
least, early Wednesday. Gusts may reach gale-force conditions
late tonight into Tuesday morning. Elevated seas are also expected
with seas from 5 to 8 ft, occasionally up to 9 offshore. Small
Craft Advisories are in effect from this afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Winds and seas should begin to diminish on
Wednesday as a surface high moves overhead. Light to moderate
onshore flow returns after Friday, gradually increasing into the
weekend. Caution flags or Advisories may be needed.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 51 68 37 / 50 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 55 69 42 / 40 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 63 71 53 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for GMZ335.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16
FXUS64 KHGX 171128
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022
Currently, the surface front has reached the coast (about 2 hours
ahead of schedule) and will continue to slowly push offshore.
Widespread rain showers and isolated storms associated with a
passing shortwave are filling in behind the front, primarily north
of Conroe, and this convection will continue to push south during
the early morning hours. Given the increasing CIN further south,
rain chances will gradually taper off the further this activity
pushes south. By sunrise, rain chances will range from 30-40% across
Southeast Texas. By 1pm CDT, rain chances north of Conroe drop below
15% while areas toward the south range from 20-30%. Finally, by
sunset, most convection will have moved offshore and rain chances
will be less than 10% south of I-10 and near zero further north.
Gentle to moderate northerly flow is expected today with sustained
winds near 15 mph and gust near 20, but winds will be a little
stronger towards the coast.
Mostly cloudy skies today will keep daytime highs in the low to mid
70s for inland locations and upper 70s near the coast. Partly cloudy
skies tonight will keep temperatures from cooling off too quickly,
but it will still be noticeably cooler with areas south of I-10
reaching the mid to upper 50s, areas between Houston and Conroe
reaching the low-to mid 50s, and areas north of Conroe reaching the
upper 40s to low 50s.
By Tuesday, the 850mb front will have pushed offshore, bringing in
clear skies and reinforcing cold air advection. Despite plenty of
solar insolation, daytime highs will struggle to reach 70. With
clear skies expected Tuesday night, cooling will be enhanced so
overnight lows will reach the low 30s north of Huntsville, the mid
to upper 30s between College Station and Conroe, and the low to
mid 40s south of Conroe.
Walts
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022
We`ll start off the long term period with fall-like conditions.
Temperatures are progged to be from the upper 30s to upper 40s
inland, and in the low 50s along the islands. The last time we
saw minimum temperatures below 40 degF was last March for CLL, and
last April for IAH and GLS. Don`t forget your light jacket as you
head out the door as daytime temperatures will only reach the
60s, with a few locations warming into the low 70s. With the sfc
high overhead and persistent northerly winds, a very dry airmass
will prevail. Sfc dewpoints will drop from the upper teens to low
30s during the day. Another cold night can be expected on
Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop from the mid 30s to mid 40s
inland, and in the 50s along the islands. Coldest readings are
expected across our northeastern counties.
Unfortunately for those who like cold weather, these temperatures
won`t last long. Ridge aloft will gradually build over the Southwest
CONUS by Thursday, while the sfc high shifts east of the region.
This pattern will gradually bring southerly flow, and hence, a
warming trend into the weekend. Highs from the upper 70s to low 80s
can be expected on Thursday, slowly climbing into the mid to upper
80s by Friday. Regarding humidity, a drier airmass will prevail
through much of the week with dewpoints no greater than 60 degF...
making it feel a bit comfortable, at least.
Warmer, slightly more humid and breezy conditions will be possible
Friday night into the weekend. Tight pressure gradient from a low
pressure system over the Great Lakes and a weak LLJ passing over the
region will induce breezy southerly winds. Saturday looks to be the
warmest day of the long term period as the ridge axis aloft moves
overhead. Highs will generally be in the 80s. Precipitation is not
anticipated this week. The next "possible" chance for rain arrives
early next week as a shortwave trough develops over South TX. There
is a lot of uncertainty as the GFS is the only solution suggesting
this wet pattern. For now, will keep a dry forecast, at least
through Sunday, with only slight chances early next week. 05
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022
A cold front has pushed offshore, leaving in its wake, gusty
northerly winds and MVFR ceilings. Showers and storms behind the
front and north of HOU will continue over the next several hours
and begin to dissipate by mid-morning. MVFR ceilings will also
begin to lift by 16-19Z with coastal areas being the last to lift
to VFR. By mid-afternoon, VFR conditions will prevail and
northerly winds will become gusty, especially south of IAH. Gusts
will subside by 01-02Z, but resume again by 16Z tomorrow.
Walts
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022
A cold front, currently along the coastal zones, will continue to
move off the coast today. Scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms can be expected behind the front today. This
activity should gradually taper off from north to south through
early evening. The next concern will be winds. North to northeast
winds will increase this afternoon and will persist through at
least, early Wednesday. Gusts may reach gale-force conditions
late tonight into Tuesday morning. Elevated seas are also expected
with seas from 5 to 8 ft, occasionally up to 9 offshore. Small
Craft Advisories are in effect from this afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Winds and seas should begin to diminish on
Wednesday as a surface high moves overhead. Light to moderate
onshore flow returns after Friday, gradually increasing into the
weekend. Caution flags or Advisories may be needed.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 51 68 37 / 50 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 55 69 42 / 40 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 63 71 53 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for GMZ335.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16
I've opened all my doors, windows, and garage doors to try to air out the house before summer-lite returns in a few days.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4250
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
That summer pattern will be short lived, we are starting to get into a pattern in which we will get a decent fall front roughly every 7-10 days, summer is over, even the mid 80’s returning next week is more typical of fall,
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4496
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022
MVFR to VFR conditions will prevail with periods of -RA over the
southern half of the CWA through this afternoon. N winds at
10-15 KTS with gusts of 18-24 KTS today, decreasing to 5-10 KTS
tonight. Rain chances will taper off this evening and cigs will
gradually rise and scatter out tonight.
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022
MVFR to VFR conditions will prevail with periods of -RA over the
southern half of the CWA through this afternoon. N winds at
10-15 KTS with gusts of 18-24 KTS today, decreasing to 5-10 KTS
tonight. Rain chances will taper off this evening and cigs will
gradually rise and scatter out tonight.
-
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