August 2022

[jasons2k]

Man the satellite loop looks like a training setup is commencing, especially along the I-45 corridor - some spots will be slammed.

As for Labor Day weekend - blah - yeah I would like a break. Pool party was planned for the 5th with friends from Austin - I think I mentioned several days ago I was concerned it would be a washout.

We're in the split for now. Juicy, juicy air.

Me too. First it was all west of me, now all east of me. The forming line just skipped by me.

[jasons2k]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Will be continuing with this messy forecast for the bulk of of our
terminals for the rest of this afternoon/early evening. Low to mid
level convergence along with shortwave activity moving in from the
west will help to keep the mention of TSRA in for site generally N
of SGR/HOU the next several hours. Activity to decrease during the
evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Did add MVFR ceil-
ings for some inland terminals heading into sunrise tomorrow on in
to the early morning hours. Closer to the coast, isolated SHRA are
going to be possible starting by the very very early morning hours
tomorrow. Generally light/variable winds expected the rest of this
afternoon (outside any thunderstorms) and tonight. Winds to remain
on the light side tomorrow (5-10kts) from the SE/E. 41

[Cpv17]

CMC 12z has a bug bullseye over the next 5-6 days of 10-15 inches in far SE Texas, but that bullseye could be anywhere, something to watch closely

This weekend is definitely looking wet but it hasn’t really popped up in any forecasts yet. Probably waiting for more models to jump onboard before they really increase chances.

[jasons2k]

And now a new line forms….off to the west. Still stuck in a dead zone.

[Cpv17]

And now a new line forms….off to the west. Still stuck in a dead zone.

We haven’t really had much here today either but I’m not complaining because we got a lot yesterday.

[jasons2k]

And now a new line forms….off to the west. Still stuck in a dead zone.

We haven’t really had much here today either but I’m not complaining because we got a lot yesterday.

I had another nice shower this morning so that was nice. But still — I just want one good old-fashioned 1” plus soaker. It’s been since April or May. Every. Single. Time. I get crumbs and leftovers. Can’t I just get one!?!?!?

I keep looking south, hoping that warm air flowing from the Gulf can spark something but I’m so deep behind the cool outflow at this point, whatever forms may not make it. We’ll see…

[Cpv17]

Not only will we need to watch out for another round of heavy rains this coming weekend but it’s now looking like we’ll need to pay attention to next week too because we could have an EPAC system crossing over from Mexico to deal with and those setups can be pretty dangerous sometimes.

[TexasBreeze]

The line to the west is slowly building in this direction.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 why can those be dangerous?

Edit: I see what you mean, Euro brings in a WPAC system at the ends of its run into the state and has some pretty big totals

[DoctorMu]

And now a new line forms….off to the west. Still stuck in a dead zone.

Finally getting slammed here. 1+ in of rain so far.

The first time April? March? with lines of heavy rain. Hope the line continues to move east in your direction.

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 why can those be dangerous?

Edit: I see what you mean, Euro brings in a WPAC system at the ends of its run into the state and has some pretty big totals

They have a lot of history of bringing flooding rains to the state.

The CPC seems to think we’ll stay wet into the second week of September.

[DoctorMu]

Cpv17 why can those be dangerous?

Edit: I see what you mean, Euro brings in a WPAC system at the ends of its run into the state and has some pretty big totals

They have a lot of history of bringing flooding rains to the state.

The CPC seems to think we’ll stay wet into the second week of September.

October 1994. We had 18 inches of rain in 18 hours in CLL.

I kick down part of a fence to let water out of the backyard.

[srainhoutx]

mcd0909.gif

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0909
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Areas affected...Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302000Z - 310000Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm activity across southeast Texas may
result in additional flash flooding through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A 500mb low over West Texas is providing some
diffluent flow aloft while 850mb winds continue to funnel rich
Gulf of Mexico moisture into southeast Texas. This is in part due
to a 500mb ridge along the central Louisiana coast, that in tandem
with the upper low in West Texas, is resulting in a convergence
zone over southeast Texas. 19Z surface analysis showed a surface
low in central Texas with a pair of surface troughs acting as
triggers for ongoing areas of convection. SPC RAP mesoanalysis
showed a reservoir of 2.2-2.3" PWs throughout the highlighted
region, as well as MLCAPE between 1,000-2,000 J/kg. 850-300mb mean
wind speeds are ~5 knots and mean cloud layer RH values are
averaging close to 90%.

Ongoing storms have begun to propagate west towards central Texas
where one surface trough is located while storms continue to form
along another surface trough west of Houston. 17Z HRRR showed
storms gradually dissipating around 00Z with the atmosphere being
overworked and due to the loss of daytime heating. However, storms
associated outflow boundaries may help to produce additional
storms not long after sunset. The 12Z HREF displayed probabilities
of 3-hr QPF > 3-hr FFGs as high as 45-50% west of Kileen. FLASH
CREST max unit stream flow highlighted Kileen as seeing 300-700
cfs/smi due to storms recently passing through the area. MRMS
instantaneous precip rates were as high as 4-5"/hr in some cases,
but most areas can expect hourly rainfall totals in the 2-3"/hr
range. This shows the type of rapid onset flooding that can occur,
especially in urbanized communities that contain a greater
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces. Low lying, poor drainage
areas are also susceptible to flash flooding the remainder of the
afternoon.

Mullinax

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

[DoctorMu]

Yep. Feast or Famine.

[jasons2k]

The line to the west is starting to advance, with an outflow of course, but should get some more juice out of it.

Edit 3:58. Outflow blew by. The stuff west of here may start dying.

And look to my northeast already. This has the looks of another ‘skip’ look to it. Maybe a few frames later it can blossom here too…

Edit 4:03 the skies to my NE are super dark blue with a blue-turquoise rain shaft. Beauty from afar…

Radar is lighting up around me though.

[jasons2k]

4:12 sure hope this donut fills-in before everything falls apart. Lots of thunder to my NE. Wrong effing direction, again.

[jasons2k]

Yep, once again….

[DoctorMu]

Yep, once again….

Any Aggies recently settle into the area, recently? Because that is one helluva AggieDome. I can't believe those cells moving just west of I-45 missed you.

1.72 in of rain today in CLL. Salvation at last. Now I can begin preparations for brown patch season.

[DoctorMu]

Yep, once again….

https://youtu.be/eV67FuREdSc

[jasons2k]

Yep, once again….

Any Aggies recently settle into the area, recently? Because that is one helluva AggieDome. I can't believe those cells moving just west of I-45 missed you.

1.72 in of rain today in CLL. Salvation at last. Now I can begin preparations for brown patch season.

I’m glad you finally hit the jackpot!

Yeah, every cell that approached me today fell apart, no matter which direction. And then another would reform on the other side of me.

My step-mother and sister moved here back in May. They asked me last week "What is up with the rain in this area? It's like this one neighborhood has a forcefield over it that just zaps anything headed this way"

I said "Basically, yep - welcome to the neighborhood!"