Right now may not look good, but there is some hinting of restrengthening of the line overnight as the low level jet strengthens overnight. Slight risk here with a moderate northern areas. Saw a post with graphics on s2k.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/ ... 46&yr=2022
August 2022
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TexasBreeze
- Posts: 942
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
Wow. Houston metro got the short end..,
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Donut holes and jinxes aside (I’m superstitious enough to believe), I’d be very curious as to what happened with that convection in relation to the greater metro from an actual science perspective.
I know there are near impossible to predict mesoscale factors that play a big part, but that odd gap between that huge swath to the west and the storms to the northeast is nuts. Although apparently something measurable factored based on a few of the posts regarding the mesoscale models.
Any wagers from the commentariat?
I know there are near impossible to predict mesoscale factors that play a big part, but that odd gap between that huge swath to the west and the storms to the northeast is nuts. Although apparently something measurable factored based on a few of the posts regarding the mesoscale models.
Any wagers from the commentariat?
Narrator: It wouldn’t be Steve.
Like I said earlier today, this is gonna leave some people disappointed. At this point all I ask for is one inch. We’ll see if I can at least get that. Some people will cash in but I think most of us won’t get much outta this.
Well that escalated quickly…
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I missed this email from Jeff Lindner - 8:51PM:
Threat for heavy rainfall tonight north of I-10.
Flash flood watch has been expended southward to include Montgomery County.
WPC has added a moderate risk threat level for excessive rainfall from eastern Grimes County eastward toward the Louisiana border.
Low level outflow boundary has made good progress this evening southward and is currently along a line from near Garwood to Katy to The Woodlands to Livingston and is slowing to nearly a stall. Showers and thunderstorms have been active along the western portion of this boundary this evening, with little activity NE of Waller. However recently deep convection has begun to develop over Polk and San Jacinto Counties and this may be the beginning of an expected increase in activity later this evening into the overnight hours shown on recent NAM and HRRR runs.
Since the low level focus is further south than expected, the threat for heavy rainfall has also shifted southward. There are certainly some things checked off for heavy rainfall and flash flooding: slow/stalled boundary, deep tropical moisture and warm saturated profile, favorable low level inflow, steering winds become increasing parallel to the boundaries.
Still think the heaviest rains will be north of the metro area, but given the low level boundary cuts across NW and N Harris County can’t rule out some excessive rainfall in those areas overnight.
No reason at this point to go higher on expected rainfall amounts with widespread 2-4 inches north of I-10…although could maybe bump some of the areas near Lake Livingston into the 3-6 inch range. Concern is still with any isolated much higher totals under cell training.
Main threat will be street flooding with high hourly rainfall rates, but rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible with any sustained heavy rainfall.
It looks like the boundary is stalling across Harris County now. This could setup some training storms across metro Houston overnight.
But of course, then there’s this…
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Donut time. Bed time too.
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NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022
Areas affected...southeastern/eastern TX into northern LA and
western MS
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 230532Z - 231015Z
SUMMARY...Periods of heavy rain with peak rainfall rates of 2-3
in/hr (locally over 3 in/hr) are likely to impact portions of
southeastern TX into western/northwestern LA through 10Z. Heavy
rain from northeastern TX into northern LA and western MS will
also be possible atop areas of saturated soils from recent heavy
rainfall. Flash flooding will remain likely for these locations.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 05Z showed a broken axis of
heavy rain from the Piney Woods region of TX into northwestern LA,
located just ahead of a low located near LFK. Rain cooled
boundaries/effective frontal segments extended from the low,
marked by about 5 to 10 degrees of temperature/dewpoint contrast
across the boundary. MRMS-derived rainfall rates were 2 to 3+
in/hr within an anomalous plume of moisture marked by precipitable
water values between 2.2 and 2.4 inches (00Z sounding data and
recent GPS observations). 15-25 kt of 850 mb flow was converging
along the current axis of convection while aloft, placement of an
elongated ridge axis just south of the Gulf Coast was supporting
diffluent flow in the upper levels from the western and central
Gulf Coast to about 150 miles inland.
A slow moving 850-700 mb low located over northeastern TX is
forecast by the RAP to stay in roughly the same location over the
next 6 hours, while low level flow over eastern TX and western LA
increases in magnitude slightly through 12Z while expanding in
coverage. Sufficient vertical shear exists across the region to
support the development of embedded mesocyclones within the
precipitation axis which will be capable of increasing rainfall
efficiency within an already highly favorable environment for
heavy rain.
Over the next 3-5 hours, a slow eastward translation is expected
with the heavy rain axis currently over northwestern LA into
eastern TX, with peak rainfall rates of at least 2-3 in/hr and 5
hour additional rainfall totals of 3-6 inches possible. In
addition, thunderstorms are expected to expand along a west-east
low level convergence axis located near the AR/LA border in the
08-10Z time frame. Instability to the north is expected to remain
weak (< 1000 J/kg) but this region has seen 3-6 inches of rain
over the past 24 hours which has lowered flash flood guidance to 2
inches in 3 hours for a few locations.
Otto
ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 33579363 33529207 33389123 33209053 32959023
32439020 31949061 31689227 30949330 30079409
29549501 29469600 29919623 30409585 31139506
32109455 33169489 33569454
Just as I thought. A weak passing squall line overnight that lasted less than 5 min. Hou got nothing. Other than that, nothing transpired for majority of SETX. Watch. Rest of today will be spotty hit/miss showers. Unless this “multi-day” event blows up today, I am calling bust for Hou/Bmnt area.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Ensembles are starting to get active in the Gulf. Definitely has my attention.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
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- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Got 1.5 inches last night! That was an intense hour of rain.
Team #NeverSummer
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redneckweather
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
4.5" in the rain gauge this morning just south of Lake Conroe Dam. Very very intense rain that caused a leak in my bedroom. It feels like a rain forest outside this morning.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 231129
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday Night)...
Synoptic pattern remains about the same thru the short term
period. H925-700 low pressure area will meander about northeast
Texas. At the surface, weak frontal boundary should generally
remain just to the north and west of the region. Moist atmosphere
will remain in place with 2.1-2.4" PW`s pooled across the region.
The above, combined with differential heating and some impulses
embedded in the mid level flow will provide an environment
favorable for periods of mostly welcome shra/tstms with a few
caveats.
That said, confidence as to when, where and how much is fairly low
and probably driven on the meso/microscale during this time period.
For today, morning precip across the southern CWA should taper off,
but we`ll be looking north later today for potential redevelopment
once atmos recovers a bit. Toyed with idea of canceling the Flood
Watch for the northwest parts of the region (Brazos Valley), as most
available guidance doesn`t really support a widespread threat...on
an areal basis. Northeast parts around Polk Co, southern San Jac and
southern Montgomery have seen the most precip so far and prone to
some runoff with additional heavy rain. Will let the Watch ride for
now, but wouldn`t be surprised if the dayshift might reconfigure
things based on trends.
What we are confident about:
- moist atmosphere remains in place and supportive for
periods of shra/tstms.
- Antecedent conditions have been dry and flash flood guidance
remains fairly high. Watersheds are in good shape.
- Majority of rainfall will be welcome and beneficial and cause few
problems. However, the potential exists for training cells and very
heavy rainfall rates in short time periods. This is where localized
problems will crop up and need to be monitored.
What we are less confident in:
- Timing/location of the most significant precip. Will be
dependent on heating, outflow boundaries, atmospheric recovery
from previous rains. Between now and Thurs morning, many
locations will probably see a very manageable 0.75-1.50", but
there will likely be some spots that see 3-4"+ in short time
periods.
47
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
With the surface boundary expected to linger in/near the Upper TX
coastline on Thurs, rain chances will continue to run on the high
side for SE TX. And if previous QPF forecasts do verify, flooding
issues could be ongoing for Thurs. Stay tuned.
By Fri, this surface boundary should be washing out as the mid and
upper levels also become much more diffuse going into this weekend.
This almost inbetween pattern aloft along with the return of light
to moderate onshore winds should translate to more active diurnal/
daytime sea breeze development across SE TX through this timeframe.
Combined with abundant heating and lingering deep moisture ((prog-
ged PWs 2-2.3"), POPs will be staying on the high side through the
weekend for mainly the southern half to two thirds of the CWA. And
for the start of next week, long range guidance appears to hint at
the idea of a deepening mid/upper level trof over the Northern and
Central Plains as a more easterly flow aloft develops across the N
Gulf coast. Elevated rain chances should persist into Mon/Tues for
SE TX (per the continuous stream of moisture and possible easterly
waves), but there are also progs of a front moving down the Plains.
However, per climatology, it`s still a bit too early for our first
cold front. Stay tuned.
As for temperatures, will continue to trend slightly above the NBM
numbers. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
Precip has tapered off at most terminals except the immediate
coast. A mix of ceilings to start off the day...ranging from VFR
to LIFR (UTS/CLL). With a bit of heating, think we`ll see a more
uniform 1500-2500ft deck set in toward mid morning then slowly
lift as the day progresses. In terms of precip, think we`ll be in
recovery mode for the next several hours, but anticipate sct
activity to develop heading into the late morning and afternoon
hours. Though confidence isn`t high, think we might see a lull in
precip this evening followed by redevelopment south of I-10 during
the late night and early morning hours Wed. 47
&&
.MARINE...
With moderate to strong onshore winds expected to remain in place
into the early afternoon hours, will maintain Small Craft Caution
flags across the bays and nearshore waters until this evening. We
will continue to see periods of elevated winds as a weak boundary
slowly sags toward the SE TX coastline today and then lingers in/
near the area these next few days. Additionally, periods of scat-
tered storms and generally unsettled weather will affect our Gulf
waters. Locally elevated winds/seas and limited visibilities will
be possible in and near the stronger activity. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 74 88 74 / 50 50 60 30
Houston (IAH) 87 75 88 74 / 40 60 80 40
Galveston (GLS) 89 79 86 79 / 40 50 70 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ330-335-350-355.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 231129
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday Night)...
Synoptic pattern remains about the same thru the short term
period. H925-700 low pressure area will meander about northeast
Texas. At the surface, weak frontal boundary should generally
remain just to the north and west of the region. Moist atmosphere
will remain in place with 2.1-2.4" PW`s pooled across the region.
The above, combined with differential heating and some impulses
embedded in the mid level flow will provide an environment
favorable for periods of mostly welcome shra/tstms with a few
caveats.
That said, confidence as to when, where and how much is fairly low
and probably driven on the meso/microscale during this time period.
For today, morning precip across the southern CWA should taper off,
but we`ll be looking north later today for potential redevelopment
once atmos recovers a bit. Toyed with idea of canceling the Flood
Watch for the northwest parts of the region (Brazos Valley), as most
available guidance doesn`t really support a widespread threat...on
an areal basis. Northeast parts around Polk Co, southern San Jac and
southern Montgomery have seen the most precip so far and prone to
some runoff with additional heavy rain. Will let the Watch ride for
now, but wouldn`t be surprised if the dayshift might reconfigure
things based on trends.
What we are confident about:
- moist atmosphere remains in place and supportive for
periods of shra/tstms.
- Antecedent conditions have been dry and flash flood guidance
remains fairly high. Watersheds are in good shape.
- Majority of rainfall will be welcome and beneficial and cause few
problems. However, the potential exists for training cells and very
heavy rainfall rates in short time periods. This is where localized
problems will crop up and need to be monitored.
What we are less confident in:
- Timing/location of the most significant precip. Will be
dependent on heating, outflow boundaries, atmospheric recovery
from previous rains. Between now and Thurs morning, many
locations will probably see a very manageable 0.75-1.50", but
there will likely be some spots that see 3-4"+ in short time
periods.
47
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
With the surface boundary expected to linger in/near the Upper TX
coastline on Thurs, rain chances will continue to run on the high
side for SE TX. And if previous QPF forecasts do verify, flooding
issues could be ongoing for Thurs. Stay tuned.
By Fri, this surface boundary should be washing out as the mid and
upper levels also become much more diffuse going into this weekend.
This almost inbetween pattern aloft along with the return of light
to moderate onshore winds should translate to more active diurnal/
daytime sea breeze development across SE TX through this timeframe.
Combined with abundant heating and lingering deep moisture ((prog-
ged PWs 2-2.3"), POPs will be staying on the high side through the
weekend for mainly the southern half to two thirds of the CWA. And
for the start of next week, long range guidance appears to hint at
the idea of a deepening mid/upper level trof over the Northern and
Central Plains as a more easterly flow aloft develops across the N
Gulf coast. Elevated rain chances should persist into Mon/Tues for
SE TX (per the continuous stream of moisture and possible easterly
waves), but there are also progs of a front moving down the Plains.
However, per climatology, it`s still a bit too early for our first
cold front. Stay tuned.
As for temperatures, will continue to trend slightly above the NBM
numbers. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
Precip has tapered off at most terminals except the immediate
coast. A mix of ceilings to start off the day...ranging from VFR
to LIFR (UTS/CLL). With a bit of heating, think we`ll see a more
uniform 1500-2500ft deck set in toward mid morning then slowly
lift as the day progresses. In terms of precip, think we`ll be in
recovery mode for the next several hours, but anticipate sct
activity to develop heading into the late morning and afternoon
hours. Though confidence isn`t high, think we might see a lull in
precip this evening followed by redevelopment south of I-10 during
the late night and early morning hours Wed. 47
&&
.MARINE...
With moderate to strong onshore winds expected to remain in place
into the early afternoon hours, will maintain Small Craft Caution
flags across the bays and nearshore waters until this evening. We
will continue to see periods of elevated winds as a weak boundary
slowly sags toward the SE TX coastline today and then lingers in/
near the area these next few days. Additionally, periods of scat-
tered storms and generally unsettled weather will affect our Gulf
waters. Locally elevated winds/seas and limited visibilities will
be possible in and near the stronger activity. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 74 88 74 / 50 50 60 30
Houston (IAH) 87 75 88 74 / 40 60 80 40
Galveston (GLS) 89 79 86 79 / 40 50 70 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ330-335-350-355.
&&
$$
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
This caught my eye...
Elevated rain chances should persist into Mon/Tues for
SE TX (per the continuous stream of moisture and possible easterly
waves), but there are also progs of a front moving down the Plains.
However, per climatology, it`s still a bit too early for our first
cold front. Stay tuned.
Elevated rain chances should persist into Mon/Tues for
SE TX (per the continuous stream of moisture and possible easterly
waves), but there are also progs of a front moving down the Plains.
However, per climatology, it`s still a bit too early for our first
cold front. Stay tuned.
Emptied .59” this morning. Not bad - just missed the real heavy stuff.
2.53” just south of you in Woodson’s. Definitely surprised me when looking at the rain gauge on my weather station when making the baby’s bottle at 3am after the radar looked as bad as it did earlier in the night.
Judging by the 12z HRRR, it looks like things may spark up around 1am. So maybe early tomorrow morning there will be a better chance.