Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 far out for sure but man most of those members are pretty strong, which isn’t surprising mainly because august-september is usually when we get stronger systems conpared to june/july which are more shared and lopsided, definitely something to watch over the next 7-10 days

Edit: 12z GEFS still has a pretty strong signal as well

[Stratton20]

Long range 00z GFS, yes this is going to change a bazillion times, mainly for fun, but it does show us that the Atlantic will be coming to life in a few weeks

[Stratton20]

Lol the 18z GFS is smoking rocks

[Stormlover2020]

Smoking rocks, could be wrong but it’s almost august it hasn’t spit out to many phantom storms in a while, heart of the season is coming up so doesn’t surprise me one bit

[Stratton20]

Stormlove2020 Oh i mean smoking rocks because it kindof just meanders the system around in the GOM while going down to the low 930’s which is cat 5,

[Stratton20]

12z GFS briefly shows a low pressure forming off the coast of Louisiana next week fwiw

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS briefly shows a low pressure forming off the coast of Louisiana next week fwiw

My luck it will hit Louisiana and make travel a mess for me heading to Starkville on Friday. I would rather the Gulf hold off until after I move in. Lol

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 on that run the low pretty much traverses the coastline of Louisiana until getting pulled northward around vermillion bay, ICON is further south though

[Stratton20]

12z ICON with a moderate tropical storm around saturday/sunday fwiw

[Pas_Bon]

Stormlove2020 Oh i mean smoking rocks because it kindof just meanders the system around in the GOM while going down to the low 930’s which is cat 5,

Considering the GOM SST's and ENSO forecasts, I wouldn't be completely shocked by this.....

[Stratton20]

Pas_Bon yup, while other models aren’t showing any development like the ICON, the GFS and CMC have a back door front working its way into in the GOM at day 5, we all know the rule when fronts stall in the GON with these incredibly warm SST’s , potential for sneaky development exists

[Stratton20]

CPV17 06z GEFS for next week, thats a decent signal in the GOM .

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 4144086016

[jasons2k]

CPV17 06z GEFS for next week, thats a decent signal in the GOM .

It did a decent job sniffing that one out.

[Cpv17]

The 12z CMC has a tropical storm into Brownsville next Sunday. The GFS has it too but going towards Alabama/Florida. Something to watch.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 agreed, they have been pretty consistent in the idea of another GOM system, it is late august after all

[Cpv17]

It’s definitely time to start paying attention to the tropics. Both the GFS and European ensembles are showing development along with the operationals. They’re both fairly consistent.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 12z CMC has a weak tropical storm making landfall just to the west of galveston early next week fwiw

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 12z CMC has a weak tropical storm making landfall just to the west of galveston early next week fwiw

That’s an ugly track. Would leave most of us high and dry. Need it to come in further southwest.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 Agreed, but it just shows that we may have something to watch as its 7 days out on this run, this pattern we are in could create a weakness over Texas and allow for a tropical aystem to head our way potentially