August 2022

[brazoriatx]

Let's see..

[cperk]

Does anyone know what models are the NHC using to base this potential development on?

[Stratton20]

cperk likely the Euro, EPS guidance, ICON has a closed low, nothing set in stone, but their is support their for something to try to spin up

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Tropical wave currently over the southern Caribbean Sea will move west into central America over the next few days and then this wave axis will turn NW over the Bay of Campeche where conditions may become increasing favorable for tropical cyclone development. The National Hurricane Center is now highlighting this area as a potential area for development late this week at currently a 20% chance. Some of the global models and their respect ensemble members have been hinting at development in this part of the basin and today’s trend has continued if not increased some. With a frontal boundary dropping southward toward the TX coast late this week, conditions south of that boundary will become increasingly favorable for low pressure to potentially develop along the tropical wave axis. Guidance that develops an area of low pressure moves it in the general direction of NE MX or S TX.

For now this is an area that will need to be watched closely over the next several days.

Persons along the TX coast should monitor forecasts at least one time per day for any changes.

[DoctorMu]

Let's see..

Open the lemonade stand!

[walsean1]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Tropical wave currently over the southern Caribbean Sea will move west into central America over the next few days and then this wave axis will turn NW over the Bay of Campeche where conditions may become increasing favorable for tropical cyclone development. The National Hurricane Center is now highlighting this area as a potential area for development late this week at currently a 20% chance. Some of the global models and their respect ensemble members have been hinting at development in this part of the basin and today’s trend has continued if not increased some. With a frontal boundary dropping southward toward the TX coast late this week, conditions south of that boundary will become increasingly favorable for low pressure to potentially develop along the tropical wave axis. Guidance that develops an area of low pressure moves it in the general direction of NE MX or S TX.

For now this is an area that will need to be watched closely over the next several days.

Persons along the TX coast should monitor forecasts at least one time per day for any changes.

Nothing to see here for at least for Houston. Once the front passes, it will keep any cyclone south of Houston. Big winner for moisture, S TX , or in some cases big loser due to how strong the system becomes.

[Stratton20]

walsean1 yeah except thats not the case here, this front is weak and is expected to stall out before eventually washing out, its absolutely way too soon to rule out impact’s to houston, besides that front could help to create a weakness over us which could draw the system further north

[Cpv17]

walsean1 yeah except thats not the case here, this front is weak and is expected to stall out before eventually washing out, its absolutely way too soon to rule out impact’s to houston, besides that front could help to create a weakness over us which could draw the system further north

Yep, bingo!

[walsean1]

walsean1 yeah except thats not the case here, this front is weak and is expected to stall out before eventually washing out, its absolutely way too soon to rule out impact’s to houston, besides that front could help to create a weakness over us which could draw the system further north

Yep, bingo!

We will see, we just need beneficial rains either way

[Pas_Bon]

What would the timeline be for any potential tropical development possibly affecting the Tx Gulf Coast?

[jasons2k]

This came a little before 8am from Jeff:

Tropical wave will emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche late this week.

A tropical wave currently over the far SW Caribbean Sea will be approaching the eastern portions of central America today and then moving WNW in the general direction of the Bay of Campeche over the next 48 hours. No development of this wave is expected over the next 48 hours as it interacts with the land areas of central America.

Once the wave axis reaches the Bay of Campeche on Thursday, some slow development into an area of low pressure will be possible. Current NHC outlook maintains the 20% chance of development over the SW/W Gulf late this week/weekend. Where any low pressure area that may develop along the wave axis occurs will determine how far north over the western Gulf any system may track. Of all the 00Z models only the ECWMF shows any actual development of a weak low near Brownsville this weekend. However some of the ensemble members from both the GFS and ECWMF show some development…hence the 20% tagging at this point.

Regardless of any tropical development, rain chances will begin to increase as early as late Wednesday as a weak frontal boundary moves into the region and stalls. This feature will support shower and thunderstorm development into the weekend while moisture will also begin to surge NW toward the TX coast with the tropical wave axis entering the western Gulf over the weekend. The frontal boundary washes out late in the weekend, but the tropical wave axis/low near south TX could help bring more moisture northward and maintain rain chances into early next week.

As always with the tropics…check forecasts daily for any changes.

[Stratton20]

I think this disturbance is going to get shoved into mexico, looking at the ensembles, they have a ridge building into the eastern GOM, not going to allow this system to get that far north, I know I said its too early, but I don’t like that ridge in the eastern GOM, this spells big time shafted again, again its early, but I dont like what i see in the ensembles

[cperk]

I think this disturbance is going to get shoved into mexico, looking at the ensembles, they have a ridge building into the eastern GOM, not going to allow this system to get that far north, I know I said its too early, but I don’t like that ridge in the eastern GOM, this spells big time shafted again, again its early, but I dont like what i see in the ensembles

You're probably right we have seen this type of set up many times and they tend to move into Mexico or South Texas it all depend on the placement of the ridge and the strength of the front, but we should still monitor it.

[Stratton20]

cperk agreed, though the WPC has been decreasing rain fall totals over SE Texas the past 24-36 hours, thats not encouraging to say the least

[jasons2k]

WPC forecast rainfall totals for SE Texas have gone down. It really depends on how far south the front can make it before it stalls, and that’s clear as mud. It will depend a lot of outflow boundaries.

Remember, last week didn’t happen as forecast. We were supposed to get dumped-on on Thursday and Friday last week, but that system blew-up on Wednesday evening and pushed everything south and offshore. This upcoming front still has a lot of unknowns.

[jasons2k]

Nice shower in Cromagnum’s vicinity on one of our 0% chance of rain days. Actually the radar is quite busy to the Southwest today.

[Cromagnum]

Nice shower in Cromagnum’s vicinity on one of our 0% chance of rain days. Actually the radar is quite busy to the Southwest today.

I was eyeing it. It was a huge blowup just northwest of me but then micro donut holed me for a while (like 2 pixels on my radar app). Seems to have given me a pittance eventually as my house cameras show a wet driveway.

[Scott747]

18z GFS attempts to build a little stronger vorticity with the incoming disturbance and brings it up across Corpus and Matagorda with little convection however.

12z Euro remained weak and further s across ne mexico and the RGV.

Only scraps to hold onto for our neck of the woods is the motion as a little more nnw along the coast.

[DoctorMu]

WPC forecast rainfall totals for SE Texas have gone down. It really depends on how far south the front can make it before it stalls, and that’s clear as mud. It will depend a lot of outflow boundaries.

Remember, last week didn’t happen as forecast. We were supposed to get dumped-on on Thursday and Friday last week, but that system blew-up on Wednesday evening and pushed everything south and offshore. This upcoming front still has a lot of unknowns.

Weak FROPA as opposed to a series of impulses. I expect more donut in our donut hole.

[TexasBreeze]

18z GFS attempts to build a little stronger vorticity with the incoming disturbance and brings it up across Corpus and Matagorda with little convection however.

12z Euro remained weak and further s across ne mexico and the RGV.

Only scraps to hold onto for our neck of the woods is the motion as a little more nnw along the coast.

The 18z looks a bit stormier overall, but with more frontal precip than from the wave/disturbance.