Massive grain of salt eh.
It’s flooding in Pearland.
July 2022
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Rip76 maybe not you but the storms always go around my area every time, thats why i never put much faith into models showing rain around here lol, its been like that the whole summer, it is truely depressing seeing all that convective action over the other gulf states except for us
From this afternoon’s NWS AFD:
.CLIMATE...
Galveston set their new all-time July record high minimum temperature back on the 19th with a morning low of 86 degrees. Since then, the new record has been tied three more times - on the 20th, 23rd and 24th.
Today will not be added to this record since the low this morning was
a much more comfortable 85 degrees.
.CLIMATE...
Galveston set their new all-time July record high minimum temperature back on the 19th with a morning low of 86 degrees. Since then, the new record has been tied three more times - on the 20th, 23rd and 24th.
Today will not be added to this record since the low this morning was
a much more comfortable 85 degrees.
How much more “Donut” can it get? Sheesh…
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
picture, thousand words; donut hole yada yada....monsoon west, normal summer storms east.
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Heck, not even Florida has as much modeled qpf on that map as is showing up in those western desert areas.
And that is why I'm not as much sold on the "Mexican plateau dry air column" theory. (1) Any dryness from that region would have to advect from the southwest to make it into Texas ... which does present at times with mid-latitude storm dynamics (i.e. especially spring with severe weather, dryline, capping, etc setups), but not really summer when the flows tend to be more easterly over SE Texas. And as pointed out, (2) the literal deserts themselves are seeing rainfall.
(NOTE: what I mention depends purely on the specific rainfall dynamics concerning those desert regions, of course. The modelled rainfall could very well all be purely orographic in reality, specifically to mountain slopes).
Otherwise, I have no good answer regarding the trouble Texas has with seeing summer rainfall. It's as if it happens just for the sake of happening, no rhyme or reason — it's one thing to see a gradual wetter trend as you go east towards the Atlantic Seaboard ... but no, it's literally soaking ample rains literally right until TX/LA border area doorstep, then BAM, bone dryness.
Honestly it defies logic at this point. The "Mexican dry air" doesn't hold much for me as per reasons I described above, while the general ridging/high pressure doesn't apply since Southern states farther east often have qpf even with similar (if not stronger) heights compared to Texas.
A curse from a wicked witch over Texas might as well be a valid explanation at this point.
(NOTE: there are obviously specific physical processes at play, of course, that I just might be overlooking/not familiar with. I'm just stating how things would appear to an unacquainted layman looking at the map, as for why Texas is always the donut hole.)
Honestly it defies logic at this point. The "Mexican dry air" doesn't hold much for me as per reasons I described above, while the general ridging/high pressure doesn't apply since Southern states farther east often have qpf even with similar (if not stronger) heights compared to Texas.
A curse from a wicked witch over Texas might as well be a valid explanation at this point.
(NOTE: there are obviously specific physical processes at play, of course, that I just might be overlooking/not familiar with. I'm just stating how things would appear to an unacquainted layman looking at the map, as for why Texas is always the donut hole.)
Update from Jeff:
Unlike the past several weeks…temperatures will be slightly “cooler” this week and there will be a chance of daily showers and thunderstorms.
Mid and upper level ridge is centered over the southern plains this morning, but is just far enough inland that tropical moisture is sliding NW toward the TX coast. Radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters and a few have moved inland over the coastal counties this morning. As temperatures warm into the low to mid 90’s showers and thunderstorms will develop along the inland moving seabreeze boundary. Slightly better rain chances will be in the forecast on Wednesday as tropical moisture moves slightly further inland and this will again promote a favorable air mass for heating to develop showers and storms along the seabreeze front. Activity will encounter the subsidence from the ridge toward the NW so inland areas (north of I-10 and west of I-45) will likely not see as much coverage as near coastal areas.
Rain chances remains daily in the 20-30% range through the end of the week with temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s except low 100’s across the very dry Brazos Valley area.
Fire Weather:
There were several fire starts on Sunday and Monday over the region, even with weather conditions well below Red Flag criteria. This is a testament to just how dry the fuel loads have become with significant stress in the ladder (medium) and canopy (large) fuel loads. Fires continue to show aggressive and extreme behavior and have required significant resources for containment. Overall weather conditions are not in the critical range (low humidity and gusty winds) for fire growth, but the dead and dying fuel loads are helping to make up for the lack of favorable weather conditions and allowing fire starts and spread.
Grimes 4285 Fire: 100 acres and 95% contained. Fire started yesterday afternoon near Hwy 90 and FM 36 in northern Grimes County near the town of Singleton. Air support from TFS helped ground crews bring the fire under control by early evening.
Waller County: 80 acres and 100% contained. Fire started from a hay bailing machine near FM 362 and Stockdick Rd. Numerous fire departments were able to bring the fire under control by early evening.
Nelson Creek Fire: 1911 acres and 100% contained after 7 days. TFS and TAMU flew a heat seeking drone over the fire burn scare yesterday to find any hot spots and indicated that the burned area had cooled and released control back to local FD’s.
Tropics:
No significant features of concern across the Atlantic basin, but atmospheric conditions look to become increasingly favorable for tropical development over the next few weeks as is common in early August.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
Unlike the past several weeks…temperatures will be slightly “cooler” this week and there will be a chance of daily showers and thunderstorms.
Mid and upper level ridge is centered over the southern plains this morning, but is just far enough inland that tropical moisture is sliding NW toward the TX coast. Radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters and a few have moved inland over the coastal counties this morning. As temperatures warm into the low to mid 90’s showers and thunderstorms will develop along the inland moving seabreeze boundary. Slightly better rain chances will be in the forecast on Wednesday as tropical moisture moves slightly further inland and this will again promote a favorable air mass for heating to develop showers and storms along the seabreeze front. Activity will encounter the subsidence from the ridge toward the NW so inland areas (north of I-10 and west of I-45) will likely not see as much coverage as near coastal areas.
Rain chances remains daily in the 20-30% range through the end of the week with temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s except low 100’s across the very dry Brazos Valley area.
Fire Weather:
There were several fire starts on Sunday and Monday over the region, even with weather conditions well below Red Flag criteria. This is a testament to just how dry the fuel loads have become with significant stress in the ladder (medium) and canopy (large) fuel loads. Fires continue to show aggressive and extreme behavior and have required significant resources for containment. Overall weather conditions are not in the critical range (low humidity and gusty winds) for fire growth, but the dead and dying fuel loads are helping to make up for the lack of favorable weather conditions and allowing fire starts and spread.
Grimes 4285 Fire: 100 acres and 95% contained. Fire started yesterday afternoon near Hwy 90 and FM 36 in northern Grimes County near the town of Singleton. Air support from TFS helped ground crews bring the fire under control by early evening.
Waller County: 80 acres and 100% contained. Fire started from a hay bailing machine near FM 362 and Stockdick Rd. Numerous fire departments were able to bring the fire under control by early evening.
Nelson Creek Fire: 1911 acres and 100% contained after 7 days. TFS and TAMU flew a heat seeking drone over the fire burn scare yesterday to find any hot spots and indicated that the burned area had cooled and released control back to local FD’s.
Tropics:
No significant features of concern across the Atlantic basin, but atmospheric conditions look to become increasingly favorable for tropical development over the next few weeks as is common in early August.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I cant remember the last time I fell asleep while looking at the models, boring is the word for these runs, all jokes aside it is frustrating that we cant get any widespread rain chances in SE Texas, this ridging is too pesky
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4496
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 261734
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Outside of afternoon showers and storms, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. We can expect scattered showers
and isolated storms south of Conroe this afternoon as the bay
breeze and sea breeze initiate convection. Expect short fused
amendments should a shower or storm push near an airport. Winds
will become southeasterly and gusty this afternoon and begin to
subside during the overnight hours. Tomorrow`s weather pattern
will be fairly similar with showers near our coastal terminals
from 10-14Z and then sea breeze/bay breeze showers and storms
starting around 18Z and pushing further inland. Coverage of this
afternoon convection will be a little more active tomorrow, so
went ahead and included VCSH/VCTS for sites south of Conroe
tomorrow afternoon.
Lenninger
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 620 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
Doppler radar has been detecting quick passing showers moving
northward across the Gulf waters with a few of them moving into the
coastal regions from time to time. As higher PWs from the waters
continue to make its way inland this morning, these showers will
possibly increase in coverage. There might be a decrease in activity
after sunrise, but once temperatures heat up into the 90s and the
seabreeze develops by late morning/early afternoon, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorm should develop. Activity will
dissipate by the evening. Hot conditions will persist with high
temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s inland and in the mid 90s
along the coasts. Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
There is a possibility for better chances of rain on Wednesday as
the upper level high retreats eastward into Southeast CONUS as a
result of an upper trough propagating east from the Northern Great
Plains into the Western Great Lakes region and an upper trough
moving from the eastern Gulf waters into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Guidance suggests isolated to scattered activity mainly over the
local waters and coastal regions starting Wednesday morning and as
the day progresses, convective activity will increase and expand
further inland. Models do show some pockets of drier air passing
through the area during the day and depending on where the Gulf
trough "sits" during the day, rainfall amounts for some areas could
be limited. Thus, have capped PoPs at 40% for now. Though high
temperatures are expected to be fairly the same as today`s, some
spots could have highs a few degrees lower depending on cloud
coverage, rainfall and associated cold pools. Warm and calm
conditions expected Wednesday night with lows in the mid to upper
70s inland and the low 80s along the coasts.
24
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
Generally a forecast of persistence into next week. Mid-upper
ridging stretching across the southeast states, across Tx and into
the southwestern states will persist. Lower end POPs will remain a
possibility...mainly diurnally/seabreeze driven across the
southern half of the CWA and offshore, where the battle with
subsidence might be more prone to some wins. Heights appear that
they`ll nudge upward a bit going into next week & corresponding
sfc temps probably will as well. 47
.MARINE...
Typical summertime pattern with s/se winds 10-15kt and 2-4ft
seas prevailing thru the period. Can expect slight chances of
primarily late night and morning showers and thunderstorms. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 101 78 102 78 / 0 20 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 78 97 78 98 79 / 10 40 10 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 93 85 93 86 / 10 40 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 261734
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Outside of afternoon showers and storms, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. We can expect scattered showers
and isolated storms south of Conroe this afternoon as the bay
breeze and sea breeze initiate convection. Expect short fused
amendments should a shower or storm push near an airport. Winds
will become southeasterly and gusty this afternoon and begin to
subside during the overnight hours. Tomorrow`s weather pattern
will be fairly similar with showers near our coastal terminals
from 10-14Z and then sea breeze/bay breeze showers and storms
starting around 18Z and pushing further inland. Coverage of this
afternoon convection will be a little more active tomorrow, so
went ahead and included VCSH/VCTS for sites south of Conroe
tomorrow afternoon.
Lenninger
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 620 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
Doppler radar has been detecting quick passing showers moving
northward across the Gulf waters with a few of them moving into the
coastal regions from time to time. As higher PWs from the waters
continue to make its way inland this morning, these showers will
possibly increase in coverage. There might be a decrease in activity
after sunrise, but once temperatures heat up into the 90s and the
seabreeze develops by late morning/early afternoon, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorm should develop. Activity will
dissipate by the evening. Hot conditions will persist with high
temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s inland and in the mid 90s
along the coasts. Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
There is a possibility for better chances of rain on Wednesday as
the upper level high retreats eastward into Southeast CONUS as a
result of an upper trough propagating east from the Northern Great
Plains into the Western Great Lakes region and an upper trough
moving from the eastern Gulf waters into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Guidance suggests isolated to scattered activity mainly over the
local waters and coastal regions starting Wednesday morning and as
the day progresses, convective activity will increase and expand
further inland. Models do show some pockets of drier air passing
through the area during the day and depending on where the Gulf
trough "sits" during the day, rainfall amounts for some areas could
be limited. Thus, have capped PoPs at 40% for now. Though high
temperatures are expected to be fairly the same as today`s, some
spots could have highs a few degrees lower depending on cloud
coverage, rainfall and associated cold pools. Warm and calm
conditions expected Wednesday night with lows in the mid to upper
70s inland and the low 80s along the coasts.
24
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
Generally a forecast of persistence into next week. Mid-upper
ridging stretching across the southeast states, across Tx and into
the southwestern states will persist. Lower end POPs will remain a
possibility...mainly diurnally/seabreeze driven across the
southern half of the CWA and offshore, where the battle with
subsidence might be more prone to some wins. Heights appear that
they`ll nudge upward a bit going into next week & corresponding
sfc temps probably will as well. 47
.MARINE...
Typical summertime pattern with s/se winds 10-15kt and 2-4ft
seas prevailing thru the period. Can expect slight chances of
primarily late night and morning showers and thunderstorms. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 101 78 102 78 / 0 20 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 78 97 78 98 79 / 10 40 10 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 93 85 93 86 / 10 40 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Storms struggling so far…
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
You would think after 5 days of 20-30% chances of rain, statistically, you would see some rain on at least one of those 5 days.
Nope. Not here. Not in this God-forsaken frontier desert.
Nope. Not here. Not in this God-forsaken frontier desert.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
August is favored above normal temps and below normal precipitation for us, looks like drought conditions will continue in the months ahead, gosh sometimes I wonder why i still live here lol
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
August is favored above normal temps and below normal precipitation for us, looks like drought conditions will continue in the months ahead, gosh sometimes I wonder why i still live here lol
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