July 2022

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191706
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1206 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period for most
sites, so the main story will be the gusty winds for today and
Wednesday. Southwesterly to southerly winds around 10-15 knots and
gusts around 20-25 knots will be present through the early part of
the nighttime hours. MVFR ceilings are possible mainly for CLL
between 09Z-14Z, but could potentially extend further east towards
UTS. Winds pick back up again in the mid morning hours out of the
southwest with gusts up to 20 knots. Expect the wind direction to
gradually shift to southerly by the afternoon hours.

Batiste

&&

[jasons2k]

This little tidbit from the afternoon AFD:

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Unfortunately, little in the way of relief from the unseasonably hot
conditions of late is expected through the rest of the week and into
the weekend.

I always have to harp on this. There is no such thing as "unseasonably hot" in the middle of July. It's summer. We're at the peak of the curve for the whole entire year. 'Tis the season for excessive heat with occasional record-breaking heat waves.

"Unusually hot?" Yes. "Exceptionally hot?" Yes. "Excessively hot?" Yes. But there's nothing "unseasonable" about triple-digit heat in July unless one lives in the southern hemisphere

[Stratton20]

Some Relief could be coming next week, looks like a potential pattern change may be on the table

[djmike]

Still only looks to be 20-30%, but Ill GLADLY take it as I think we all would. Better than nothing like 2011. We know that routine, as it gets closer it diminishes. I dont trust anything until I see a 60% to 100% chance of rain. Man I cant wait to see that 100% chance. Last time we had that was probably Imelda. Lol

[jasons2k]

There have been some showers in West Texas and eastern New Mexico today. Took a mental note we didn't see anything like that in 2011...

[DoctorMu]

This little tidbit from the afternoon AFD:

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Unfortunately, little in the way of relief from the unseasonably hot
conditions of late is expected through the rest of the week and into
the weekend.

I always have to harp on this. There is no such thing as "unseasonably hot" in the middle of July. It's summer. We're at the peak of the curve for the whole entire year. 'Tis the season for excessive heat with occasional record-breaking heat waves.

"Unusually hot?" Yes. "Exceptionally hot?" Yes. "Excessively hot?" Yes. But there's nothing "unseasonable" about triple-digit heat in July unless one lives in the southern hemisphere

Unless you're breaking all-time records like us in the NW quadrant.

[DoctorMu]

The fires around here are just getting started.

[Stratton20]

This summer is worse than 2011 IMO, you know its bad when you’re hoping for a weak tropical storm/ hurricane in the coming weeks, active phase of the MJO is set to cross into the Atlantic basin next week, will see if anything happens

[TXWeatherMan]

This summer is worse than 2011 IMO, you know its bad when you’re hoping for a weak tropical storm/ hurricane in the coming weeks, active phase of the MJO is set to cross into the Atlantic basin next week, will see if anything happens

Did you live here in 2011?

[jasons2k]

This summer is worse than 2011 IMO, you know its bad when you’re hoping for a weak tropical storm/ hurricane in the coming weeks, active phase of the MJO is set to cross into the Atlantic basin next week, will see if anything happens

It’s not even close. By this time (mid July) in 2011 there was no hay or water left and ranchers were liquidating cattle like crazy. We were on severe water restrictions. The trees were already deep into a massive die-off. So far we’ve been in much better shape compared to that. We need next week to pan-out though with some rain.

[davidiowx]

This summer is worse than 2011 IMO, you know its bad when you’re hoping for a weak tropical storm/ hurricane in the coming weeks, active phase of the MJO is set to cross into the Atlantic basin next week, will see if anything happens

Ok, take a step back and breathe a bit. While this summer sucks, it’s nothing like 2011… yet. If this weather continues and August brings us 100 degrees plus all month, then we can talk about comparisons.

[Cpv17]

This summer is worse than 2011 IMO, you know its bad when you’re hoping for a weak tropical storm/ hurricane in the coming weeks, active phase of the MJO is set to cross into the Atlantic basin next week, will see if anything happens

Ok, take a step back and breathe a bit. While this summer sucks, it’s nothing like 2011… yet. If this weather continues and August brings us 100 degrees plus all month, then we can talk about comparisons.

I feel like that’s fair. If we get to the end of August and this pattern is still locked in then we’re definitely gonna be some deep you know what. And honestly it wouldn’t surprise me if that ends up happening.

[captainbarbossa19]

This summer is worse than 2011 IMO, you know its bad when you’re hoping for a weak tropical storm/ hurricane in the coming weeks, active phase of the MJO is set to cross into the Atlantic basin next week, will see if anything happens

It’s not even close. By this time (mid July) in 2011 there was no hay or water left and ranchers were liquidating cattle like crazy. We were on severe water restrictions. The trees were already deep into a massive die-off. So far we’ve been in much better shape compared to that. We need next week to pan-out though with some rain.

Right. In 2011, much of SE Texas was in exceptional drought by April. Currently 21.32% of the state is in exceptional drought. On July 12, 2011, over 70% of the state was in exceptional drought. Definitely nowhere close to the intensity of 2011. Personally, I do believe August is going to feature some rain, but it may come at a price unfortunately from the tropics. I say a price because it may not just be a rain event.

[DoctorMu]

This summer is worse than 2011 IMO, you know its bad when you’re hoping for a weak tropical storm/ hurricane in the coming weeks, active phase of the MJO is set to cross into the Atlantic basin next week, will see if anything happens

It’s not even close. By this time (mid July) in 2011 there was no hay or water left and ranchers were liquidating cattle like crazy. We were on severe water restrictions. The trees were already deep into a massive die-off. So far we’ve been in much better shape compared to that. We need next week to pan-out though with some rain.

Right. In 2011, much of SE Texas was in exceptional drought by April. Currently 21.32% of the state is in exceptional drought. On July 12, 2011, over 70% of the state was in exceptional drought. Definitely nowhere close to the intensity of 2011. Personally, I do believe August is going to feature some rain, but it may come at a price unfortunately from the tropics. I say a price because it may not just be a rain event.

TBF, it's worse in College Station this year vs. 2011 so far, but not most everywhere else in Texas.

Maybe things will flip in August for us...usually not but we'll see...

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Generally VFR conditions will prevail today into tonight. There
will be localized MVFR conditions this morning due to pockets of
lower BKN ceilings. These locally lower ceilings will quickly
disperse this morning. Gusty 10-15 knot winds are likely at most
terminals today.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 353 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...
Today will be another sweltering day across southeast Texas. The
mid/upper level ridge that has been plaguing the region with intense
heat will continue to build over the CWA today. Unfortunately, this
suggests that we will add another degree or two to those afternoon
temperatures. The hottest conditions within the CWA will occur in
the Brazos Valley and our northern most counties where temperatures
of 104-106 are expected. Dew points are expected to mix down into
the 60s which will mitigate the heat index values in those counties.
However, the temperatures alone will be near Excessive Heat Warning
criteria. Therefore, an Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect in
the Brazos Valley and our northern most counties.

Farther south along the I-10 corridor and in the city of Houston,
temperatures are expected top out in the 100-102 range. Though
mixing will decrease afternoon dew points, heat index values will
still reach advisory criteria today. Don`t expect there to be much
relief at the coast where a heat advisory is also in effect. Today
will be a scorcher no matter where you are in the CWA.

Ridging remains strong on Thursday. Current blend of models used in
our grids are showing slightly lower dew points than today. Despite
lower dew points, HI values could still reach advisory criteria. For
now, we have opted to not extend heat alerts into Thursday. However,
we may decide to extend heat advisories into Thursday by later
today. Regardless of whether or not we reach advisory criteria, it
will certainly be hot enough to warrant heat safety precautions.

Self


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
Heat will continue to be the primary wx story. That said, there
looks to be a glimpse of relief the further we get into midweek.

Weakness/inverted mid-level trof should be moving westward across
the Gulf and toward the mid/lower Tx coast on Friday. Slight
chances of precip are possible locally, mainly across the
southeast 1/4 of the CWA and offshore, as this occurs. However,
the vast majority of the region should remain rain-free with
subsidence & capping still too much to overcome.

This weekend, the upper ridge will be migrating to the east across
the Southern Plains and into the Tennessee/Mississippi Valley.
Again, can`t completely rule out some isolated seabreeze activity
closer to the coast - but nothing much of significance.

Toward midweek as the ridge moves further eastward, we may see
another inverted trof make its way around the periphery of the
ridge toward the area. By then, heights and the llvl temp profile
should be a bit lower (hopefully allowing for a less hostile
environment for some iso-sct precip development). 47


.MARINE...
Moderate onshore flow will persist today into tonight. As the
pressure gradient slightly weakens Thursday and beyond. Will keep
the caution flags flying into mid morning then let the day crew
reevaluate things. Otherwise, a fairly typical summertime wind
regime will then prevail through the period. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 106 79 103 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 103 79 101 78 98 / 10 0 10 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 85 95 84 95 / 0 0 10 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston
Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones:
Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Trinity...Walker...Washington.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for the following zones:
Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Trinity...Walker...Washington.

Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for the following zones:
Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Trinity...Walker...Washington.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Coastal Harris...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Inland Harris...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Waller...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

[jasons2k]

It’s not even close. By this time (mid July) in 2011 there was no hay or water left and ranchers were liquidating cattle like crazy. We were on severe water restrictions. The trees were already deep into a massive die-off. So far we’ve been in much better shape compared to that. We need next week to pan-out though with some rain.

Right. In 2011, much of SE Texas was in exceptional drought by April. Currently 21.32% of the state is in exceptional drought. On July 12, 2011, over 70% of the state was in exceptional drought. Definitely nowhere close to the intensity of 2011. Personally, I do believe August is going to feature some rain, but it may come at a price unfortunately from the tropics. I say a price because it may not just be a rain event.

TBF, it's worse in College Station this year vs. 2011 so far, but not most everywhere else in Texas.

Maybe things will flip in August for us...usually not but we'll see...

It’s much more isolated though and if you compared rainfall amounts going back into 2021 (remember the 2011 drought started in 2010) you would still find late 2010-2011 was worse up in B/CS too.

In summer of 2011, even the cedar trees were all brown amidst a massive die-off all over the hill country. The cedar!

Last weekend, Austin was green. Even the grass. The oak trees looked great. Nothing at all like 2011.

[Stratton20]

Another miserable hot day, mother nature is a bi*ch! man im really hoping we get this pattern to change next week, fingers crossed the high breaks down

[jasons2k]

Anyone notice there is decent coverage of showers over Oklahoma and the low rolling plains area from Abilene to Wichita Falls?

This, the day after the hottest day of summer too. Did not happen in 2011…

[txbear]

Anyone notice there is decent coverage of showers over Oklahoma and the low rolling plains area from Abilene to Wichita Falls?

This, the day after the hottest day of summer too. Did not happen in 2011…

You beat me to the punch. Those showers extend all the way down to Pecos and a smattering in the Panhandle and South Plains.

I don't know if they were expecting at all. Short wave disturbance?

[tireman4]

Anyone notice there is decent coverage of showers over Oklahoma and the low rolling plains area from Abilene to Wichita Falls?

This, the day after the hottest day of summer too. Did not happen in 2011…

2011 was horrible. That High Pressure was incredible. August 2011...in Houston...every day was over 100 except one. The average high temperature that month was 100.3 degrees ( the highs, not combined). The average combined was 90.4..which is almost three degrees from the second place. Yes, 2011 was the wost, IMHO

Top 10
Warmest
90.4 2011
87.7 2010
87.6 2019
87.5 1962
87.0 1951
86.8 1999
86.8 1902
86.6 2020
86.6 1980
86.5 1993.