July 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 6:44 pm Looks like a nice shower just popped up near Jason’s location.

YES YES YES!! Hallelujah!! The curse has been (temporarily) broken!! I got a magnificent .89" in the rain bucket!! Everything suddenly looks like it has a pop of green again!! YES!!

It kinda figures I was sitting in a movie theater when all this went on though. I'm not complaining though - I'm so grateful for the rain!!
Stratton20
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Folks in Lousiana could be facing the potential for a significant flood event this week, 18z Euro stalls the low over Louisiana for 3-4 days and it just doesnt move at all, steering currents collapse completely as seen on the 500 mb height anomaly
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DoctorMu
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109°F for the high. Kill me now.

GFS actually has a chance of rain here Mon - Wed of next week...then a front near the end of the month.

To sleep - perchance to dream...
Rhodesk75
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Y’all! We got TWO showers in Angleton today!! Granted they each only lasted about 3 minutes, but it was so dangum exciting, when I walked out on the front patio of my office, about 7 of my residents (I’m a property manager) and our USPS mail carrier were standing out there and we all just stared in silence , like we’d seen angels dancing! It was the most beautiful thing we’d seen in what seems like MONTHS!! Lol!
One of them finally said “OMG, YOUR WINDOWS ARE DOWN IN YOUR CAR (two fronts were actually just cracked a hair to let some heat out—but also something I *NEVER*EVER* do, but I died twice trying to cool off going to lunch, so left them cracked when I got back) HURRY AND GRAB YOUR KEYS AND I WILL ROLL THEM UP FOR YOU” I just kinda laughed and said “Nah….I think I just discovered the trick. If it takes the inside getting rained on for us to escape this nightmare, I’ll start leaving all 4, PLUS my sunroof open everyday. Once this drought and burn ban are behind us, I’ll go cash in on that expensive a** warranty that I bought and have never used!! LAWD, HEAR OUR PRAYERS!!” 3 minutes later it was over, parking lot looked again like it hasn’t seen rain in months, temps were immediately triple digits again, and everyone scattered like ants back to their a/c. It was fun for a minute anyways. 😩
Cromagnum
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Precipitation has disappeared from my local forecast except for a small glimmer of hope on Thursday.
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:04 am Precipitation has disappeared from my local forecast except for a small glimmer of hope on Thursday.
Same here. I hope you get something. It’s amazing what one good storm can do. The trees here instantly look healthy again. Let’s keep it going!!!

Edit: I just read the HGX discussion and wow they sure did trim back the pops. Yesterday, they had raised them to 50% for Galveston tomorrow and now it’s down to 20%!!

Reading the discussion, there doesn’t seem to be any major reasons why it changed though. In fact, they seem optimistic about next week as we get wedged between the two ridges.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 130933
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
433 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Night]...

Will maintain the Heat Advisory across the CWA for today. There was
some thought that a Excessive Heat Advisory could be needed for por-
tions of our northern counties today (Burleson/Brazos/Madison) given
the trends of the last couple of days and short-range models keeping
85h temps around 22-25C for these areas. However, the other trend of
note lately seems to be the increased POPs (mostly during the after-
noons and early evening). The remnants of a weak stationary boundary
around/to just north of the CWA looks to be a factor this afternoon,
with chances increasing near the coast with the sea breeze. Isolated
convection should become a bit more widespread heading into the late
afternoon/early evening given the ensuing meso interactions/boundary
movement. Per SPC, while only our far NE counties are outlooked with
a Marginal risk of severe for later today, we can`t rule out another
round of storms with strong winds and brief heavy rains across SE TX.

As for temperatures and heat indicies, we`ll likely see very similar
numbers today to that of yesterday. Highs today will range from 102-
105F for the northern counties (but could be higher depending on the
timing of convection). Elsewhere inland, highs should range from 100
to 104F...mid 90s at the coast. As the mid/upper ridge retreats back
to the west a bit more by tomorrow, this string of very hot (+>100F)
temps should be easing a bit. The return of regular hot summer temps
tomorrow is expected with highs 99-102 north...96-99 central and the
lower 90s at the immediate coast if all goes according to plan. 41

&&


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

High pressure in the mid/upper levels will be building back into our
area at the end of the week and on through the upcoming weekend.
Central and southern areas might end up along the southern fringes
of this ridge which could give them mainly diurnally driven low rain
chances. Toward the end of the weekend or at the beginning of next
week, the ridge retreats to the west and places our area in between
this ridge and another ridge extending across the central and southern
Gulf of Mexico. This could eventually allow for a better chance of
showers and thunderstorms across parts of our area.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal with some days
flirting with Heat Advisory levels. Even if there is no Advisory
in place, please continue to practice heat safety and take the
proper precautions (drink plenty of water, take breaks in the
shade or indoors, LOOK before you LOCK, and remember heat safety
for your pets as well).

42

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore winds will persist through the remainder
of the week and on through the weekend. Some shower and thunderstorm
chances will be in the forecast. Mariners should continue to monitor
outlooks from the National Hurricane Center concerning a northern
Gulf of Mexico system.

42

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Not a lot of changes from the previous and current TAFs of generally
light winds becoming W/SW later this morning. The sea breeze will be
shifting these winds to the S/SE later this afternoon/early evening.
Will also maintain VCSH (for now) but chances are good that VCTS may
be needed if convection trends of the last couple of days repeat for
today. Otherwise, VFR conditions to prevail for the most part. 41

&&

.CLIMATE...

Galveston set another high minimum temperature record yesterday when
their low temperature only dropped to 85 degrees, and this made it
10th consecutive days that they have either tied or broken their
daily record high minimum temperature.

Their average low temperature so far this month (thru the 12th)
is 84.1 degrees. The normal is 79.3 degrees.

College Station`s high temperature yesterday was 109 degrees which
tied the old record set in 1954. They have now gone 11 consecutive
days with a high temperature of 101 degrees or more and 4 straight
days with a high of 106 degrees or more.

Their average high temperature so far this month (thru the 12th)
is 103.8 degrees. The normal is 94.3 degrees.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 106 79 103 77 102 / 20 10 30 20 0
Houston (IAH) 101 78 98 77 97 / 10 10 30 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 93 84 93 82 95 / 20 10 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island...Grimes...Houston...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...None.

&&

$$
Cpv17
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Tomorrow actually looks like a decent chance of rain according to the mesoscale models. I’d put it at about 30 to 40%.
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jasons2k
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So the NWS is going with the drier trend for today (see below).

I personally think we're going to see more coverage than the official forecast. The satellite is looking good. Winds are light. The ridging has backed off. Deeper PWATS are just offshore and inching this way; should come in with the sea breeze. Overall, I think the setup is pretty decent for scattered showers/thunderstorms especially from the 4-7pm window.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

No major changes from the previous TAF cycle. WSW winds will
gradually shift to the SSE this afternoon along the seabreeze. A
few showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, mainly for
our northern terminals. Latest hi-resolution models show a drier
trend, so have only kept VCSH across most of the terminals for
now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
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tireman4
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And with that, CenterPoint is asking us to conserve energy from 2-8 pm tonight. So far, the grid is good...


Grid Conditions
Last Updated: Jul 13, 2022 13:33 CT
OPERATING RESERVES:
3,081 MW
NORMAL CONDITIONS
There is enough power for current demand.
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tireman4
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2 pm update...still good...in the yellow..

Grid Conditions
Last Updated: Jul 13, 2022 14:05 CT
OPERATING RESERVES:
3,095 MW
CONSERVATION ALERT
Please reduce power use.
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tireman4
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3 pm update...still good...in the yellow

Grid Conditions
Last Updated: Jul 13, 2022 14:59 CT
OPERATING RESERVES:
2,638 MW
CONSERVATION ALERT
Please reduce power use.
Cromagnum
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Nice thunderstorm on radar...too bad it's south of me (again). I have missed on all sides this week already.
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jasons2k
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Don't understand why the storms building near Lake Livingston suddenly went poof! It's too early for them to do that! Ugh!
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tireman4
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The 4 pm update. We should be good to 9 pm.

Grid Conditions
Last Updated: Jul 13, 2022 15:58 CT
OPERATING RESERVES:
2,609 MW
CONSERVATION ALERT
Please reduce power use.
davidiowx
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Getting a boost from the wind, Ercot is. Come in rain. Had a storm coming right at me and evaporated. Wharton hit the lottery so far today.
Cromagnum
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Some mammatus action looking West towards Wharton.

Image
Cpv17
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davidiowx wrote: Wed Jul 13, 2022 4:54 pm Getting a boost from the wind, Ercot is. Come in rain. Had a storm coming right at me and evaporated. Wharton hit the lottery so far today.
Nothing here other than a crap load of wind..at least nothing yet. My cousin once again in Wharton got hammered.

Edit: now it’s raining. Nothing really heavy though but a good moderate rain.
Stratton20
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Interesting feature to the SW of the disturbance in the GOM, Looks like an ULL is spinning and associated with some storms, yoy can clearly see a broad rotation but its in the upper levels, something to watch as tropical storm colin formed from a similar feature and it wasn’t picked up well by most of the models, likely wont develop but it is way further over water and not close to land, interesting feature to watch
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jasons2k
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This extends down into Harris County...

Mesoscale Discussion 1473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Texas to northern Louisiana and southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 132132Z - 132330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop through
the late afternoon and early evening. These storms will pose a risk
for damaging winds and perhaps sporadic large hail. A watch is not
expected given the isolated nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across the Texarkana
area and east TX/western LA as surface-based parcels reach their
convective temperatures within a diffuse stalled frontal boundary.
With temperatures exceeding 100 F across the region, dewpoint
depressions have increased to 30-40 F and are indicative of
steep-low level lapse rates (which are estimated to be between 8-9
C/km based on latest RAP mesoanalysis). Furthermore, RAP forecast
soundings hint that column theta-e deficits are between 20-30 K with
SBCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg and minimal inhibition. This
thermodynamic profile is favorable for strong downbursts capable of
damaging winds. Although mid-level temperatures are fairly warm
(above -10 C), sporadic large hail is possible with the stronger
updraft pulses given the favorable CAPE profiles and some mid-level
flow (around 20-25 knots based on regional VWPs). The propensity for
these threats will be correlated with storm coverage, but given the
limited forcing for ascent, storm coverage should be limited and
will negate the need for a watch.
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