June 2022

[Stratton20]

Captainbarbossa19 with a slow moving system i think someone easily could see double or triple these totals depending on where a rain band sets up

[don]

New 18Z Tropical models.

[Texashawk]

New 18Z Tropical models.

Mmmm…. 3 days over bath water. Fantastic.

[djmike]

Which point do they start issuing a track/cone? I know its too early, but if we now have model plots shouldn’t a cone be created also soon. I know some changes were made over the last year or so but just curious. TIA

[Stratton20]

djmike they wont put out a cone until a closed low forms, but I see why you would ask that though

[captainbarbossa19]

New 18Z Tropical models.

Mmmm…. 3 days over bath water. Fantastic.

Also, a rather significant east shift. TVCN is over Matagorda Bay now. I am sticking to landfall between Palacios and Galveston.

[davidiowx]

Lookin pretty ragged on vis now.. Will see what happens tonight.

[djmike]

djmike they wont put out a cone until a closed low forms, but I see why you would ask that though

Ah. Gotcha. Thanks!!

[Stratton20]

95L’s convection is rather unimpressive, not a whole lot of deep cloud colors on satilite imagery

[don]

Looks fine to me,95L looks as expected for this time.Whats more important is consistent convection.Any TC genesis if it does happen, is not supposed to happen until tomorrow at the earliest.Models are also under initializing the convection that 95L has now.

[Cpv17]

New 18Z Tropical models.

I’m rooting for the UKXI model to verify! Don’t like these east shifts at all. My area is in the worst drought in all of southeast TX.

[Cpv17]

New 18Z Tropical models.

Mmmm…. 3 days over bath water. Fantastic.

Also, a rather significant east shift. TVCN is over Matagorda Bay now. I am sticking to landfall between Palacios and Galveston.

Not to be rude but I’m hoping you’re wrong

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks fine to me,95L looks as expected for this time.Whats more important is consistent convection.Any TC genesis if it does happen, is not supposed to happen until tomorrow at the earliest.Models are also under initializing the convection that 95L has now.

I agree. We are approaching DMIN where convection tends to wane in tropical systems. Not unusual at all for a developing TC to look like this right now given the time of day.

[don]

Long discussion on 95L this afternoon from HGX.

SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN MAINLY RELEGATED TO COASTAL AREAS
SINCE THEY ARE THE CLOSEST TO THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
FRONTS STALLING OUT IN THE GULF IN THE MONTH OF JUNE TYPICALLY ISN`T
WHAT WE WANT TO SEE, AND THE ANSWER AS TO WHY IS INVEST 95L. INVEST
95L IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (COMPLETE WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION) AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OFFSHORE CONVECTION TODAY. THE PLUS
SIDE ABOUT THIS BEING AN INVEST IS THAT WE CAN TAKE A LOOK AT
SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR POTENTIAL TRACKS OF THIS LOW. THE CONSENSUS THIS
MORNING (12Z RUN) POINTED TOWARDS THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER,
THE 18Z PLOTS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE BULK OF THEM
AROUND OR JUST WEST OF MATAGORDA BAY. THIS IS STILL AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST SINCE EACH MODEL TAKES THE LOW SOMEWHERE DIFFERENT, AND OUR
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ITS TRACK.

EITHER WAY, COASTAL AREAS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PW VALUES ALONG THE COAST INCREASES TO 2.0"-
2.2", WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (~2.03"). MOST OF THE 12Z
CAMS DEPICT AN EARLY MORNING RAIN BAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A RESULT OF
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS, AND AGAIN THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THIS ARE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 (NOTICE THE TREND HERE?). WITH THIS IN MIND,
IT MAKES SENSE THAT THE HIGHEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ALONG
THE COAST WHICH COULD USE THE RAINFALL TO HELP WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT. BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, 1"-2" OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST ALONG THE COAST WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER INLAND, 0.5"-1.0" IS IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT`S
WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE HREF PMM PLACES THE HIGHER END OF THE
AMOUNTS OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AGAIN, I WANT TO STRESS THAT
THIS IS ALL HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE FURTHER
NORTH IT GOES, THE HIGHER OUR RAIN CHANCES...AND VICE VERSA. NHC HAS
MENTIONED THAT THIS LOW COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL (WHEREVER THAT MAY BE).

THE GOOD THING ABOUT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IS THAT THIS MEANS I
HAVE COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS! TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND. ALONG
THE COAST, CLOUDS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO Y`ALL CAN EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
MILD AND MUGGY SIDE (MID TO UPPER 70S) WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

THE OPENING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS, TO PUT IT QUITE
SIMPLY...A MESS. THE MAIN PROBLEM HERE IS THAT WE HAVE INVEST 95L
HANGING OUT OFFSHORE IN THE GULF, AND UNTIL THERE IS MORE CLARITY
ON JUST HOW THAT WILL PLAY OUT, WE HAVE A MUCH BROADER RANGE OF
FORECAST OUTCOMES THAN USUAL. NOW, IN THE BIG PICTURE, WE HAVE A
GENERALLY GOOD IDEA OF HOW THIS GOES - 95L WILL TRY TO PULL ITSELF
TOGETHER BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ON THE COAST. IT MAY
SUCCEED IN BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
IT DOES SO. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BRING IN A SLUG OF HIGH MOISTURE
AIR TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST, THEN DRAG INLAND IN THE SUCCEEDING
DAYS. WE`LL SEE HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE AREA, AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY GET LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. WANT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
THAN THAT? EHHHHHH...THERE`S NOT A WHOLE LOT OF VALUE IN TRYING TO
PARSE OUT SPECIFICS RIGHT NOW.

BECAUSE OUR FORECAST MUST BE DETERMINISTIC, WE DO CURRENTLY SHOW
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN GENERAL, WE
HAVE TWO INCHES OR LESS NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO, INCREASING
INTO A 3-5 INCH RANGE RIGHT ON THE COAST. BUT, DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH, STRUCTURE, AND TRACK OF 95L, THESE AMOUNTS AND PLACING
ARE LIABLE TO CHANGE, SO IT`S BEST TO TAKE A MORE HOLISTIC VIEW OF
THIS RAINFALL SCENARIO FOR NOW, AND NOT GET TOO TIED TO SPECIFIC
AMOUNTS AT SPECIFIC POINTS. CONSIDER THE PATTERN OF RAINFALL IN
PLACE, AND HOW THAT MAY SHIFT SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE TO THE
NORTH OR SOUTH. WE COULD ALSO THINK ABOUT HOW MOISTURE ENVELOPES
MIGHT CONDENSE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED STORM, OR BECOME SLOPPY AND
BROAD WITH NO ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE DROUGHT SITUATION, I FOR
ONE AM ROOTING FOR AN OUTCOME WHICH BRINGS A LONG, STEADY RAIN
THAT BRINGS HIGH AMOUNTS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING
PROBLEMS. THE ATMOSPHERE CARES NOT FOR WHAT I WANT, BUT I`VE GOT
MY ORDER IN ANYWAY.

[captainbarbossa19]

Mmmm…. 3 days over bath water. Fantastic.

Also, a rather significant east shift. TVCN is over Matagorda Bay now. I am sticking to landfall between Palacios and Galveston.

Not to be rude but I’m hoping you’re wrong

I understand. You want it to give you a bunch of rain too. Honestly, I want everyone to cash in out of this. We are so dry.

[Cpv17]

Also, a rather significant east shift. TVCN is over Matagorda Bay now. I am sticking to landfall between Palacios and Galveston.

Not to be rude but I’m hoping you’re wrong

I understand. You want it to give you a bunch of rain too. Honestly, I want everyone to cash in out of this. We are so dry.

That’s how I feel too. I want everyone from Corpus to Beaumont to at least get a couple inches.

[Stratton20]

Yep most everyone should get some beneficial rain, but wouldnt be surprised to see a few spots maybe get double digit totals, always surprises with a tropical system

[djmike]

Yep most everyone should get some beneficial rain, but wouldnt be surprised to see a few spots maybe get double digit totals, always surprises with a tropical system

That is true. ALWAYS surprises with tropical systems! They all do something no one expected in one way or another. As long as feet of rain stay off the table, im good. Dont need another Harvey/Imelda here in Beaumont. Lol

[Stratton20]

djmike their is little natural vegetation around my area that I live as its mostly low lying concrete streets, definitely need a few inches, but it wouldnt take a while lot to cause flooding here, we will see how this plays out

[cureduchenne]

Mmmm…. 3 days over bath water. Fantastic.

Also, a rather significant east shift. TVCN is over Matagorda Bay now. I am sticking to landfall between Palacios and Galveston.

Not to be rude but I’m hoping you’re wrong

I am with you on this thought - our pond is about to be a dirt bowl if we do t get substantial rain!